Topic: Any idea when the Bitcoin Mempool will stop being so congested? - page 5. (Read 1103 times)

The price has been pretty "stable" in the past 24 hours around $13,200 - $13,500

I will try to give a you a simple and clear answer.
This "when" doesn't depends on miners, Bitcoin code doesn't allow them do more.
This "when"  depends on those who send so many transactions.
And this means nobody can give you proper estimation.

Now I will guess. I think that a big number of transactions is caused by the trading (and arbitrage) bots.
So my guess is that when the price will stop hopping around the mempool will also clear up.
I know it's not a clear date, but it's the best I can do.

If you can't explain why the fee is so high and you only say it's only a matter of "supply and demand" so supply and demand cannot explain why the stock market goes up or why it goes down but overall there is a rational to it and overall it does go up like real estate ... however Bitcoin is much more anonymous than the stock market, so I was asking for a rational behind this which so far I didn't get except for the first poster who somehow explained it might be related to China.

And I see in Bitcointalk lots of threads with Broken English such as this:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/can-bitcoin-trasnaction-can-canceled-if-long-time-not-confirmed-5285043

Title: Can Bitcoin trasnaction can canceled
Can (a) Bitcoin trasnaction (=transaction) can (get) cancelled?

So apparently broken English is fine but a proper "research" is not? I honestly don't get you. From all the threads being posted here this specific thread is the one that is bothering you?

 

A poster above you said the following:


So are you guessing then?

I noticed that there has been more misinformed posts and questions than normal about the mempool, based on a lack of understanding of Bitcoin, how it works, its inticracies, and its "imperfections".

Please research, and understand how it works before posting misstatements, and find out that its "imperfections" actually are caused by important design-decisions that make Bitcoin robust and censorship-resistant.

There's no need to twist it around into centralized vs decentralized debate, especially if how miners work is not clearly understood. If you want to make transactions and don't want to pay $5 for it then wait for the weekend, the mempool is usually cleared up at that time.

There is no way for them to "speed up" or "expedite" confirmations... They (the miners) have hardware running to find a sha256(sha256(block header)) that's under the current target. It's not like they can increase the target by themselfs nor do they have a button they can click to increase their hashrate (in order to do this, they have to buy expensive ASIC's, which can take several weeks to arrive and configure). An increase in the target will only happen if the average time between blocks is > 10 minutes, at this point the difficulty will be decreased and the target will increase at the next difficulty adjustment.

If you look at any block explorer, for example this one: https://blockstream.info/ you'll see that the last 10 blocks were completely full (out of the 10 blocks that were shown). This basically means that individual miners are not hindering anything, they're doing everything they can to confirm as many transactions as possible.

Appartently there was a significant drop in hashrate recently, it's being attributed to chinese miners turning their gear off because they have to pay higher power prices this season (it's a rumour, there's no proof AFAIK), so they can't mine profitably. This might cause the average time between 2 blocks to be > 10 minutes. But still, we'll have to wait untill the next diff adjustment... An individual miner cannot change, fix, or speed up anything.

The problem is basically that more transactions are broadcasted per timeframe than can be fitted into blocks at the same timeframe... It can be caused by to many transactions, or by a drop in the network's hashrate (so less blocks will be solved). In this case, it looks like it's both; more transactions + drop in the hashrate.

Why are Bitcoin miners not speeding up and expediting the confirmations? Is it for personal gain? in that case that means Bitcoin is centralized and not decentralized because miners can control its fees?

Its not possible to measure when the things will be normal but still the answer for your question can be, Mempool gets less number of transactions only when the price of bitcoin gets stable for few days, either increase or decrease in the price is going to be a cause for more people to buy or sell their coins.

The only thing i can tell you is that anybody who gives you a precise answer to your question is probably guessing...

There's no way of telling how long it'll take before we see <10sat/vbyte fees again... In 2018 the optimal fee was >10sat/vbyte for multiple months... This time it could be for a couple of days, a couple of weeks, a couple of months... Or even longer.

The fees are so high, this is terrible:

https://bitcoinfees.net/

Total mempool transactions: 111,140

When is it going to go down back to 2,000 - 4,000 ??