Any way to beat the dice sites? - page 4.

Phildo

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Quote from: ndnh on February 25, 2015, 02:15:40 PM

Quote from: Phildo on February 25, 2015, 02:05:45 PM

That said, how much do you win if you win 35 in a row? how much do you lose if you lose 35 in a row? Both have the same chance of happening, that's why martingale is bad/dumb.

With a 1 satoshi bet, wins will be 35 satoshis

and losses will be 2^34*0.00000001 (is this right?) = 171.79869184BTC
and if you win the 36th bet, you profit 1 satoshi Cheesy

Yeah, it sure is dumb. Unfortunately, I realized that only after I lost quite a good amount.

Just trying to stop the next you. I got lucky and the first time I heard of martingale was in stats class, where you learn that it's dumb the same day you learn about it.

ndnh

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Quote from: Phildo on February 25, 2015, 02:05:45 PM

That said, how much do you win if you win 35 in a row? how much do you lose if you lose 35 in a row? Both have the same chance of happening, that's why martingale is bad/dumb.

With a 1 satoshi bet, wins will be 35 satoshis

and losses will be 2^34*0.00000001 (is this right?) = 171.79869184BTC
and if you win the 36th bet, you profit 1 satoshi Cheesy

Yeah, it sure is dumb. Unfortunately, I realized that only after I lost quite a good amount.

ndnh

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Quote from: thompete on February 25, 2015, 02:09:53 PM

Quote from: ndnh on February 25, 2015, 02:08:56 PM

Quote from: thompete on February 25, 2015, 02:04:14 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:59:15 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Its pretty simple. Its -EV , so there is no way unless unless you have an infinite bankroll, and the minimum bet you can make is very very small.

Well if you have infinite bankroll you dont need the minimum amount you can bet to be low

Well ,yes . I meant, with an infinite bankroll, you will be able to have upto 50 streaks supported with it. Which should be enough for you to survive. Never seen more than 35 losses even in simulations done by friends.

There is no need for an infinite backroll. Just 5629499.53421BTC is enough to cover 49 losses if you start with 1 satoshi.

Thats pretty decent then. Satoshi, can support around 47 then. he should already be winning

In order to make even 1% profit, satoshi will have to make billions of rolls, in which case the chance of so happening will multiply exponentially.

Guess what? It is the same odds as betting everything in a single bet for the expected win (in a place with no max limit) Wink

So why waste the time?

Phildo

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Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 02:06:54 PM

Quote from: Phildo on February 25, 2015, 02:05:45 PM

Quote from: thompete on February 25, 2015, 02:04:14 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:59:15 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Its pretty simple. Its -EV , so there is no way unless unless you have an infinite bankroll, and the minimum bet you can make is very very small.

Well if you have infinite bankroll you dont need the minimum amount you can bet to be low

Well ,yes . I meant, with an infinite bankroll, you will be able to have upto 50 streaks supported with it. Which should be enough for you to survive. Never seen more than 35 losses even in simulations done by friends.

If you have an infinite bankroll you don't need to bet.

That said, how much do you win if you win 35 in a row? how much do you lose if you lose 35 in a row? Both have the same chance of happening, that's why martingale is bad/dumb.

Martingale is not dumb, any strategy is dumb then

Any strategy on these dice sites is dumb, at least math wise. they all have a negative expected value. Martingale is a great way to win a little or lose a lot. You will have a bunch of small wins, but the one time it doesn't work it will wipe out all of those wins and then some.

Know going into these sites that there is no way to win, if you want to take the risk, take the risk, it's your money, but martingale is not a smart thing to do, because when it fucks you over, it will fuck you over hard.

thompete

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Quote from: ndnh on February 25, 2015, 02:08:56 PM

Quote from: thompete on February 25, 2015, 02:04:14 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:59:15 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Its pretty simple. Its -EV , so there is no way unless unless you have an infinite bankroll, and the minimum bet you can make is very very small.

Well if you have infinite bankroll you dont need the minimum amount you can bet to be low

Well ,yes . I meant, with an infinite bankroll, you will be able to have upto 50 streaks supported with it. Which should be enough for you to survive. Never seen more than 35 losses even in simulations done by friends.

There is no need for an infinite backroll. Just 5629499.53421BTC is enough to cover 49 losses if you start with 1 satoshi.

Thats pretty decent then. Satoshi, can support around 47 then. he should already be winning

ndnh

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Quote from: thompete on February 25, 2015, 02:04:14 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:59:15 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Its pretty simple. Its -EV , so there is no way unless unless you have an infinite bankroll, and the minimum bet you can make is very very small.

Well if you have infinite bankroll you dont need the minimum amount you can bet to be low

Well ,yes . I meant, with an infinite bankroll, you will be able to have upto 50 streaks supported with it. Which should be enough for you to survive. Never seen more than 35 losses even in simulations done by friends.

There is no need for an infinite backroll. Just 5629499.53421BTC is enough to cover 49 losses if you start with 1 satoshi.

XinXan

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Quote from: Phildo on February 25, 2015, 02:05:45 PM

Quote from: thompete on February 25, 2015, 02:04:14 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:59:15 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Its pretty simple. Its -EV , so there is no way unless unless you have an infinite bankroll, and the minimum bet you can make is very very small.

Well if you have infinite bankroll you dont need the minimum amount you can bet to be low

Well ,yes . I meant, with an infinite bankroll, you will be able to have upto 50 streaks supported with it. Which should be enough for you to survive. Never seen more than 35 losses even in simulations done by friends.

If you have an infinite bankroll you don't need to bet.

That said, how much do you win if you win 35 in a row? how much do you lose if you lose 35 in a row? Both have the same chance of happening, that's why martingale is bad/dumb.

Martingale is not dumb, any strategy is dumb then

Phildo

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Quote from: thompete on February 25, 2015, 02:04:14 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:59:15 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Its pretty simple. Its -EV , so there is no way unless unless you have an infinite bankroll, and the minimum bet you can make is very very small.

Well if you have infinite bankroll you dont need the minimum amount you can bet to be low

Well ,yes . I meant, with an infinite bankroll, you will be able to have upto 50 streaks supported with it. Which should be enough for you to survive. Never seen more than 35 losses even in simulations done by friends.

If you have an infinite bankroll you don't need to bet.

That said, how much do you win if you win 35 in a row? how much do you lose if you lose 35 in a row? Both have the same chance of happening, that's why martingale is bad/dumb.

ndnh

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Merit: 1005

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Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:50:39 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:48:45 PM

Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:47:00 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:39:23 PM

What do you mean you wont lose much? At 98% if you bet 100 satoshis you would win 2 satoshis so if you bet 100 times and you win 98 of the times you would win 196 satoshis and lose 200

You would win 1 per roll on that, but I mean 98 out of 100 rolls will win. I usually max out when I lose or raise the bet enough to offset the lose. The win profit is so low you need a huge cushion to make it worth it.

So you martingale but at a different %. I dont see how that is any better

98% odds are pretty good.

98% means you will get more wins than losses. Your EV will still be negative.

thompete

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Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:59:15 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Its pretty simple. Its -EV , so there is no way unless unless you have an infinite bankroll, and the minimum bet you can make is very very small.

Well if you have infinite bankroll you dont need the minimum amount you can bet to be low

Well ,yes . I meant, with an infinite bankroll, you will be able to have upto 50 streaks supported with it. Which should be enough for you to survive. Never seen more than 35 losses even in simulations done by friends.

Phildo

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Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:50:39 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:48:45 PM

Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:47:00 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:39:23 PM

What do you mean you wont lose much? At 98% if you bet 100 satoshis you would win 2 satoshis so if you bet 100 times and you win 98 of the times you would win 196 satoshis and lose 200

You would win 1 per roll on that, but I mean 98 out of 100 rolls will win. I usually max out when I lose or raise the bet enough to offset the lose. The win profit is so low you need a huge cushion to make it worth it.

So you martingale but at a different %. I dont see how that is any better

98% odds are pretty good.

Not when you compare them to the payout.

Bets on the dice sites are going to be -ev, because that's how they make money. You cannot combine independent -ev bets to be +ev, so there is no way to beat the sites.

XinXan

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Its pretty simple. Its -EV , so there is no way unless unless you have an infinite bankroll, and the minimum bet you can make is very very small.

Well if you have infinite bankroll you dont need the minimum amount you can bet to be low

XinXan

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Activity: 1064

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Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:50:39 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:48:45 PM

Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:47:00 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:39:23 PM

What do you mean you wont lose much? At 98% if you bet 100 satoshis you would win 2 satoshis so if you bet 100 times and you win 98 of the times you would win 196 satoshis and lose 200

You would win 1 per roll on that, but I mean 98 out of 100 rolls will win. I usually max out when I lose or raise the bet enough to offset the lose. The win profit is so low you need a huge cushion to make it worth it.

So you martingale but at a different %. I dont see how that is any better

98% odds are pretty good.

They are no different than 50% odds, since each different % gives you different reward it really makes no difference.
So lets say you bet 100 sat at 98% and you lose then you would have to bet 10k to cover that and if you lose again 0.01 btc so then again i really dont see your point

MKMarvel

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Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:48:45 PM

Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:47:00 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:39:23 PM

What do you mean you wont lose much? At 98% if you bet 100 satoshis you would win 2 satoshis so if you bet 100 times and you win 98 of the times you would win 196 satoshis and lose 200

You would win 1 per roll on that, but I mean 98 out of 100 rolls will win. I usually max out when I lose or raise the bet enough to offset the lose. The win profit is so low you need a huge cushion to make it worth it.

So you martingale but at a different %. I dont see how that is any better

98% odds are pretty good.

XinXan

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Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:47:00 PM

Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:39:23 PM

What do you mean you wont lose much? At 98% if you bet 100 satoshis you would win 2 satoshis so if you bet 100 times and you win 98 of the times you would win 196 satoshis and lose 200

You would win 1 per roll on that, but I mean 98 out of 100 rolls will win. I usually max out when I lose or raise the bet enough to offset the lose. The win profit is so low you need a huge cushion to make it worth it.

So you martingale but at a different %. I dont see how that is any better

MKMarvel

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Quote from: XinXan on February 25, 2015, 01:39:23 PM

What do you mean you wont lose much? At 98% if you bet 100 satoshis you would win 2 satoshis so if you bet 100 times and you win 98 of the times you would win 196 satoshis and lose 200

You would win 1 per roll on that, but I mean 98 out of 100 rolls will win. I usually max out when I lose or raise the bet enough to offset the lose. The win profit is so low you need a huge cushion to make it worth it.

XinXan

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Activity: 1064

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Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:33:57 PM

Quote from: elephantas1 on February 25, 2015, 01:16:33 PM

Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:01:39 PM

Easy, just the odds to 98%, you will 98 out of 100 times. Cheesy

or you will loose 50 out of 100 or 100 out of 100 dice is unpredictable you might loose or win every single time

No. Most dice sites let you change the win chance, the higher the win chance the lower the potential profit. 98% is the highest, you won't win much but you won't lose much either.

Quote from: xetsr on February 25, 2015, 01:31:17 PM

Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:01:39 PM

Easy, just the odds to 98%, you will 98 out of 100 times. Cheesy

and when you lose, make sure you come back and cry that it was rigged!!! Grin

Never.

What do you mean you wont lose much? At 98% if you bet 100 satoshis you would win 2 satoshis so if you bet 100 times and you win 98 of the times you would win 196 satoshis and lose 200

MKMarvel

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Quote from: elephantas1 on February 25, 2015, 01:16:33 PM

Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:01:39 PM

Easy, just the odds to 98%, you will 98 out of 100 times. Cheesy

or you will loose 50 out of 100 or 100 out of 100 dice is unpredictable you might loose or win every single time

No. Most dice sites let you change the win chance, the higher the win chance the lower the potential profit. 98% is the highest, you won't win much but you won't lose much either.

Quote from: xetsr on February 25, 2015, 01:31:17 PM

Quote from: MKMarvel on February 25, 2015, 01:01:39 PM

Easy, just the odds to 98%, you will 98 out of 100 times. Cheesy

and when you lose, make sure you come back and cry that it was rigged!!! Grin

Never.

xetsr

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