Seems like every ICO does this same thing: You buy into the ICO and try to be one of the very few who can sell immediately and make a profit. If you can't sell at the beginning, then you watch the coin get manipulated and pushed down in price to almost nothing. Whales accumulate at that lowest price, then pump the price up. The question though becomes will they pump the price up enough to where you can make a profit? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. This downward pressure with Ardor will continue for the next few months, and then maybe a profit can be made once they pump. IDK. This seems to be the pattern of all ICOs lately, and quite frankly I'm burnt out by it. If you don't need the money you put into the ICO anytime soon, then maybe it's worth it. Otherwise, if you can't afford to make at least your money back, and having to wait a long time for that to happen, then ICOs are just a waste anymore. Ardor will probably be successful, but sadly probably not for another couple of years. During that waiting period, how many other projects will come out that'll be better than Ardor? I'm still holding, but so far pretty disappointed with the price. Although I guess I shouldn't be because I just outlined what I knew would happen. Let's see if the NXT team can pull anything off with this.
I agree with everything you said, except that I don't really think there's going to be another coin that's going to come out that's going to be better than Ardor at what Ardor aims to do. Simply because they too will have to go through all this wait period or developing, ICO, etc.