What is the (future) value of bitcoin financial services? I'm not sure how to measure it, but there must be some ways to estimate it. For example, Austrians believe that business cycles are caused by current financial system. If true, then value of new financial system should include cost of busts/depressions/stagnations it's preventing. How much the dotcom crash did cost? How much the Great Depression did cost? And the following (and partly caused by it) WWII?
I don't think we need an in-depth analysis to show that the wealth creation due to bitcoin financial services will be dwarfed by the wealth represented by the monetary value of bitcoin. Let me try another route.
The bitcoin financial services are the arteries through which bitcoin monetary value flows. Yes, it takes capital - human and resources - to create these arteries. In the process of this creation, the value of the resulting financial services will -- if intelligently implemented -- exceed the value of the human and resources capital that went into their creation. IOW, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. It is this difference that is the wealth created by the bitcoin financial services. This wealth will be earned and enjoyed by the people that create these services.
But all this is for naught if there is not a much greater pool of bitcoin, that will flow through these arteries.
In any scenario where bitcoin 'succeeds' in any meaningful measure, there will be a much greater number of people who passively use bitcoin -- to store value and/or to use as a medium of exchange -- than the number of people who create the aforementioned arteries. These passive users of bitcoin, should they HODL more than spend in the early days (years), will be the beneficiaries of a great transfer of wealth from fiat holders.
If the bitcoin wealth owned by the passive users does not completely dominate the created wealth of the bitcoin financial services buildout, then the entire system is woefully inefficient. IOW, it has failed spectacularly in its claimed mission to be a money.
I rather think it fail succeed spectacularly. I will harbor no guilt about the fact that I was early to detect the seeming inevitability of this great transfer of wealth.
Your fiat doom scenarios, while instructive, seem to me to be tangential (or maybe I have not yet seen the relevance). These problems are all self-inflicted by the fiat system, which repeatedly confuses an increase in the currency used to measure wealth (ignoring the subsequent devaluation) for an increase in actual wealth.