Are the Predictions of Bitcoin Halving accurate?

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Quote from: Upgrade00 on June 24, 2023, 03:52:39 PM

Quote from: Hatchy on June 24, 2023, 03:28:47 PM

the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

They are predictions and they cannot be accurate exactly. It is impossible to predict the exact moment when the final block in this 210,000 block cycle would be completed, you can only estimate based on the average ~10 minute between blocks.

It is not essential to have reliable source for the next halving, all you need to do is to buy Bitcoin, hold and wait for the pump that is likely to come after the halving.

That is very correct because no one can predict the exact time the next halving will take place so most of the bitcoin halving countdown trackers are just speculating and the next bitcoin halving will happen either before or after that prediction since as upgrade rightly said, no one has the accuracy of time this event will happen and it all depends on the demands for bitcoin and how many transactions are carried out within the remaining space of time between now and then, so what happened in the Bitcoin networks in terms of transactions is what matters.
But for sure the next bitcoin halving will happen around the displayed time month but the exact day is still unknown

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Quote from: Blitzboy on June 26, 2023, 03:38:54 AM

Tools like Blockchair give a rough sketch of Bitcoin halving, based on current mining rates and the 10-minute block addition rule. But, lets not carve these estimates in stone; they're mere projections, not exact truths. Mining speed sways due to a host of elements like network complexity tweaks and overall mining might. So, while these tools sketch an outline, pinpointing the exact halving day, let alone hour or minute, is a shot in the dark.

As Bitcoin and blockchain enthusiasts, we should understand foundational principles, rather than leaning entirely on prediction models. These forecasts, while handy, arent fail-safe. They're as precise as nailing the next raindrop's landing time

I think the best way is to simply just keep a week in your mind when the halving will occur instead of thinking about the specific day and hour, block times can't be delayed too much for the event to be pushed more than a week in my opinion, so having an estimate of a specific week should be enough. Besides, people will already start buying when the halving is to occur after a month, and the market might start moving from there.

So those who are asking for the exact time or day or week or month should simply just have an eye on the market and just remember the month of the halving because things will start escalating a month before it and we will witness something positive even before it reaches.

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Quote from: inthelongrun on June 26, 2023, 07:14:53 AM

That is why it is called prediction because there is no guarantee. But who cares much about the exact date and hour of the halving? It is only for the record and historical milestones.

Financially, it is all about positioning which happens earlier than the exact halving date. Big whales and institutions are not dumb and are smart enough to position themselves as early as last year. Many investors continue with their regular DCA while the price of bitcoin is still cheap at $30k. Personally, I might continue my DCA until bitcoin surpasses $40k to $50k.

Many people are misinterpreting the halving, many of them believing that bitcoin will increase as soon as the halving takes place. All look forward to the halving event to trigger a new bull run, so it's no surprise they need to know the exact halving date. The halving is inevitable, and the bull season will only come 1 year after the halving ends (based on history), so we don't need to rush and rush.
Currently, I'm not very interested in the halving, instead, I still hope the bitcoin price doesn't go up anytime soon so I can continue to fill my bitcoin pocket.

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That is why it is called prediction because there is no guarantee. But who cares much about the exact date and hour of the halving? It is only for the record and historical milestones.

Financially, it is all about positioning which happens earlier than the exact halving date. Big whales and institutions are not dumb and are smart enough to position themselves as early as last year. Many investors continue with their regular DCA while the price of bitcoin is still cheap at $30k. Personally, I might continue my DCA until bitcoin surpasses $40k to $50k.

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Predictions can never be accurate no matter what. Maybe it was the right counting or not and whether it was right or wrong at least, we have an idea when it possibly comes. And at least we have time to prepare and anticipate the possible price surge leading to a bull run and new ATH. It is somewhat to say that people are very excited when it happens and so they are accumulating more coins, filling their bags, and making themselves ready for the said marker event. It will just come with a sign...

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Quote from: Hatchy on June 24, 2023, 03:28:47 PM

As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

However, given that these things are giving different results from different websites which make me think that they are not reliable in my opinion, I think we should only use what we all know and calculate how the blocks are getting mined in 10 minutes. I believe by doing that we will see how it goes. Even though I'm not waiting or checking these predictions before halving the fact that most of these I didn't take them essential meaning that I'm seeing them as unreliable things. In light of the fact that the most recent halving occurred on May 11, 2020, which leads us to conclude that it will happen around 2024, I feel we should refrain from utilizing other websites because they are providing us with inaccurate information.

So, I think as someone who wants to invest, I think we should go ahead and invest, and wait for the next increase in the price of bitcoin and hold onto our investments for whatever long or short a time it takes, given that no one can foresee the precise moment.

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on June 26, 2023, 06:14:15 AM

Quote from: franky1 on June 26, 2023, 03:53:28 AM

ok thanks for correcting yourself

You misunderstood that post.
I said binance academy has predicted the halving to be 293 days later while they say the average block time is 9.89 minutes. I even shared the link.
In the next part of my post, I said that with considering the average block time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 303 days later.

293 days was what displayed on binance academy and 303 days was what calculated by me.

Quote from: hosseinimr93 on June 24, 2023, 04:55:42 PM

I don't know how exactly they calculate the halving date. With the average block time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 303 days later.

i never stated any of the numbers quoted by anyone were factually correct or not.. i just stated that different sources were saying different amounts..

dont cause drama by saying im wrong about numbers that YOU mentioned.. because fact is: YOU mentioned them first i just said other people said..
end of discussion..

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Quote from: franky1 on June 26, 2023, 03:53:28 AM

ok thanks for correcting yourself

You misunderstood that post.
I said binance academy has predicted the halving to be 293 days later while they say the average block time is 9.89 minutes. I even shared the link.
In the next part of my post, I said that with considering the average block time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 303 days later.

293 days was what displayed on binance academy and 303 days was what calculated by me.

Quote from: hosseinimr93 on June 24, 2023, 04:55:42 PM

I don't know how exactly they calculate the halving date. With the average block time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 303 days later.

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Quote from: m2017 on June 25, 2023, 11:29:03 AM

How do you bitcoiners plan to prepare for bitcoin halving?

Price predictions after the halving cannot be ascertained with certainty. Usually, the bitcoin price can go up after the halving but it takes time too. What is certain and visible and common is Bitcoiners to make forecasts of future prices while monitoring the price movements of BTC, other digital assets and market trends. plus there has been an increase in institutional adoption as well as an increase in public interest especially recently, all of which have had a significant impact on the Bitcoin economy.

Quote from: m2017 on June 25, 2023, 11:29:03 AM

Halving will happen one way or another. According to the timer or at other times. Which, in turn, will halve the reward to miners, lowering the availability of BTC. And this, in my opinion, is the most interesting thing.

That's right, The last halving took place on May 11, 2020 and the Bitcoin block subsidy has been halved to 6.25 BTC in that time. Therefore, if we use the average time estimate between the previous halves, we can assume that the next halving will occur around 2024 for the exact time of the bitcoin halving. I think it depends on the protocol rules programmed into the network.

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on June 24, 2023, 05:35:41 PM

Quote from: franky1 on June 24, 2023, 05:18:02 PM

and as someone else said average this session is 9.89 meaning under 293 days.. a fortnight less

That's wrong.
There are 44229 blocks until the next halving and assuming that the next blocks will be mined with the average time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 437425 minutes or 303 days later. That's only 4 days less than the time predicted with considering average block time of 10 minutes.

hmm who said it oh it was you..

Quote from: hosseinimr93 on June 24, 2023, 04:55:42 PM

I just checked that and it's currently displaying the approximate block time of 9.89 minutes.
Also, they are now predicting that the halving will be 293 days later. It was 295 days later a few minutes ago.
..

I don't know how exactly they calculate the halving date. With the average block time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 303 days later.

ok thanks for correcting yourself

Blitzboy

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Tools like Blockchair give a rough sketch of Bitcoin halving, based on current mining rates and the 10-minute block addition rule. But, lets not carve these estimates in stone; they're mere projections, not exact truths. Mining speed sways due to a host of elements like network complexity tweaks and overall mining might. So, while these tools sketch an outline, pinpointing the exact halving day, let alone hour or minute, is a shot in the dark.

As Bitcoin and blockchain enthusiasts, we should understand foundational principles, rather than leaning entirely on prediction models. These forecasts, while handy, arent fail-safe. They're as precise as nailing the next raindrop's landing time

panganib999

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It is a mere estimation based on the notion that one block is mined every 10 minutes with a little less than 44,000 block remaining to be mined until the reward for mining a block is slashed in half again. While these are just rough estimation based on these parameters they are great enough at teling people how relatively close we are to the next halving event which is good enough so to speak, since there’s really no greater incentive to knowing when the mext halving will come down to the last hour and minute other than the fact that you’ll probably announce it on twitter or facebook lmao.

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Quote from: Fiatless on June 24, 2023, 05:39:03 PM

Quote from: tabas on June 24, 2023, 05:07:27 PM

You compare every website that has a countdown for the halving, not all of them are the same and that's why they're just putting some assumption that the time they set are gonna be the one where the block will be mined for that halving. I don't think that there's a need for it to be accurate with that unless you do really think that there's something important a person need to be accurate with that. Don't stress a lot with the accuracy because no matter what the countdown is and if they differ from each other, it will come.

There seems to be consensus that bitcoin halving will be experienced next year but the exact time of 2024 has been debated. Different crypto websites and analysts have their specific predictions. From my findings in different predicting websites, I think it will be difficult to know the exact minute, hour, or even day. But a summary of some of the websites visited puts the having date between February to June 2024. I am not also too concerned about the precise date because I am willing to wait till anything occurs next year. The actual halving time may be more important to Bitcoin traders.

Yes, that's it. The difference of the actual hour, date could vary but that's okay. Those dates or the actual time that the 840,000th block to be mined will certainly vary. The result is gonna be big for sure and we're all aware of that, could also be important to traders as you've said because buying pressures and demand might increase during the actual time it has been mined and the actual halving happens. For long term holders, it won't be that much important to know the time accurately because we're here to wait and wait and then find the right price and time for us to sell. I think soon, we'll see stats of these websites that have countdowns and will have the percentage of how accurate they are.

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Quote from: Hatchy on June 24, 2023, 03:28:47 PM

As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event.

After reading that now I am curious to know why, for you, it's so important to know the exact moment of the bitcoin halving, is there any specific reason? Is it because you mine bitcoin? Does it have to do with the price and eventual trading? I don't recall ever reading about anyone that needed to know this moment in such precise way...

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on June 24, 2023, 05:35:41 PM

Quote from: franky1 on June 24, 2023, 05:18:02 PM

and as someone else said average this session is 9.89 meaning under 293 days.. a fortnight less

That's wrong.
There are 44229 blocks until the next halving and assuming that the next blocks will be mined with the average time of 9.89 minutes, the halving should be 437425 minutes or 303 days later. That's only 4 days less than the time predicted with considering average block time of 10 minutes.

That's true and what we have are just mere speculations or rather estimations about when will be the next bitcoin halving will happen and that's just the given situation by the platform considering that there is indeed a block that will be mined in every 10 minutes. In simple words, nobody can fully guarantee that the given predictions will exactly happen at the given time frame.
Anyway, we shouldn't be bothered about this thing because what's more important is to try and accumulate as much bitcoin as possible before the halving will happen as we likely know already what will happen after that.

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Quote from: Hatchy on June 24, 2023, 03:28:47 PM

So I recently came across this Blockchair website, and saw that they had a Bitcoin halving countdown chart. It is actually able to predict the exact time and date of the next halving. I'm curious to know if any of you have used similar tool and if the predictions have proven to be correct. the Bitcoin halving usually happen every 4 years approximately after every 210,000 blocks has been successfully mined, the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

The countdown is not accurate since it automatically adjust the end date based on the average speed of block being discovered. The halving date now on blockchair countdown that you provide is changed to Apr 27, 2024 1:59 AM UTC and will change more while we are approaching the target block. Its better to pay attention on the block count instead of date because that's what really matter on Bitcoin halving.

There's no way to determine an accurate date unless we are only few blocks away from the halving.

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Quote from: Hatchy on June 24, 2023, 03:28:47 PM

~snip

How do you bitcoiners plan to prepare for bitcoin halving?

Also, I'm wondering why? Is it to wait for the price to rise sharply to btc? If so, where do these predictions come from? Traditionally, the (strong) rise in the price of bitcoin began with a delay, and not immediately after the halving.

Halving will happen one way or another. According to the timer or at other times. Which, in turn, will halve the reward to miners, lowering the availability of BTC. And this, in my opinion, is the most interesting thing.

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I am not among those who believe in 100% accuracy, so I doubt this is 100% accurate. It might be a close prediction since, no doubt, we have a lot of people using machines and other things to make their calculations, but an accurate countdown is nearly impossible considering the time gap, which could possibly change in the near future.

A block confirmation time that was used to make that prediction might either reduce or increase, which will bring about a possible time difference. I could just say this is a near prediction since the difference might not be far from a 1-2 month difference.

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It's an estimation, each website that hosts the countdown have different clocks because all of them estimate when will that block that's going to cause the halving to be solved. To be honest, it's kind of weird that you put reliable and prediction in the same paragraph because prediction by definition should be unreliable since it's a hunch or a guess at best and reliable isn't really the best word for it. Maybe the word would probably be ballpark, inexact or approximate, maybe approximate is the best word.

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Quote from: Hatchy on June 24, 2023, 03:28:47 PM

we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

These are based on the information that we have from the past, like, we already know when the last halving took place, and we also do know how many blocks will be mined before the next halving and we also do know how much time it usually takes for a block to mine, and then i think it is a simple math to calculate the halving.

And i do not think, the exact time is that important for people who are just speculating it for the bull run because the bull run does not come just after the halving, so basically, this timing is important for miners as they are the ones who will face reward reduction. But still, they will be compensated accordingly, as BTC always gives more in comparison to economic currencies.

Topic: Are the Predictions of Bitcoin Halving accurate? (Read 419 times)