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Topic: Are the Predictions of Bitcoin Halving accurate? - page 3. (Read 393 times)

hero member
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The Bitcoin halving occurs in every four years. It will happen after the 210 000 blocks are mined. The average time that a Bitcoin block when it is mined is 10 minutes and to know the exact date when the halving occurs is to calculate it using a formula if you know the formula but if you haven't know it yet then try using the formula on Binance Academy and they also have countdown timer there. Anyway, here's the formula that binance is using to solve when will be the next Bitcoin halving, Halving block - Next block height) * Average time between blocks - estimated time until the next block. One more thing, they are not accurate since it is a prediction.


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Here's the link to the countdown timer I mentioned and where the formula is, https://academy.binance.com/en/halving
hero member
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^ Comments above are definitely right, we cannot perfectly predict when the next halving will occur.
So it means, the exact time of the next halving event may not be predictable with absolute precision because the specific timing of a halving event is determined by the number of blocks mined on the BTC blockchain. Each block contains a specific number of transactions, and when a certain number of blocks are mined (specifically 210,000 blocks), a halving event takes place.
legendary
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Each website will display different timings, so there is no guarantee of 100% accuracy. However, based on calculations, the halving event should occur around these dates. Although these estimates may not be entirely accurate, the variation should not be significant. The timing of the halving event depends on the number of blocks that have been mined since every 210,000 blocks trigger a halving. Therefore, websites that provide calculations take into account the time it takes to mine each block.
legendary
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That's just an estimation.
Till now, 795767 blocks have been mined. This means that there are 44233 blocks until the next halving. Assuming these blocks will be mined at the rate of 1 per 10 minutes on average, the halving will be 442330 minutes or 307 days later.
This is exactly the time displayed on blockchair.com. Other websites may use different methods for predicting the halving date and that's why you may see different dats. For example, buybitcoinworldwide predicts halving to be 296 days later.
legendary
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the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?
They are predictions and they cannot be accurate exactly. It is impossible to predict the exact moment when the final block in this 210,000 block cycle would be completed, you can only estimate based on the average ~10 minute between blocks.

It is not essential to have reliable source for the next halving, all you need to do is to buy Bitcoin, hodl and wait for the pump that is likely to come after the halving.
sr. member
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There's is a similar thread here https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.61820938
Nothing is fully accurate
They are estimations, but they roughly correct
This isn't the only site that tries to predict the date
Other's exist
Though the final date may differ
But they roughly same
After every 210,000 blocks of Bitcoin are mined
The block rewards are halved
It takes approximately 10 minutes to mine a block
Not been always 10 minutes taken per block mined
Is the reason the date can't be fully accurate
But it gets more accurate the closer it gets to the next halving
sr. member
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So I recently came across this  Blockchair website, and saw that they had a Bitcoin halving countdown chart. It is actually able to predict the exact time and date of the next halving. I'm curious to know if any of you have used similar tool and if the predictions have proven to be correct. the Bitcoin halving usually happen every 4 years approximately after every 210,000 blocks has been successfully mined, the last which took place on May 11, 2020 and we are expecting the next halving to happen in 2024, but do we know the exact month, day and time? As Bitcoiners, It's very essential for us to have reliable sources for predicting and preparing for this event. so, are these predictions correct?

 
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