I think it's still far to say that right now we are in a bull run, market conditions are not stable and the price is difficult to penetrate the important limit, namely the price of $ 30k, I believe that if this week the price can reach $ 30k then April will be easy to reach $ 40k or more.
I agree that at this time we are still far from a bull run because currently the price of bitcoin is still in the recovery stage, although recently the price of bitcoin has increased significantly but that doesn't mean it's bullish but only a positive trend. and $ 30k is indeed a crucial point for bitcoin because it can determine the direction of the next bitcoin price movement.
It seems like everyone considers the $30K level to be crucial, similar to how the $25K was, and I also agree this level (between $30K and $32K I think) will be crucial for really determining a new bull market, even if only short-term for the year prior to another short-term bear market back down to $30K levels. The positive is that this isn't a bull market yet, and if we see one, there will likely be a considerable price increase.
Or it is just a round number that we need to breach to say that we are in a bull run, or just to confirmed it?
Has nothing to do with a round number in my opinion, but the fact that $30K level acted as support for about 18 months before Bitcoin capitulated into a bear market. I'd say the resistance is more like around $29K to $32K, but the common reference is $30K as it is indeed a round number. It's similar to $6K resistance level in 2019... it wasn't because that was a round number, it was because that "area" was previous support.
For me, we are still very far from the bull run because it seems that we are slowing down this April and we can't even go and break $28k. so $30k will still be the biggest psychological barrier that we have face. And even if we broke it, I don't see it as sign that we are indeed in a bull run and going to see new all time high this year.
Price is currently in it's 4th week of consolidation, so for sure price has slowed down, but this consolidation under previous support remains bullish unless it becomes new resistance. Even last week was a new yearly closing high for Bitcoin, even with price only up 0.5% for the week. Overall it still generally reminds me of April 2019 consolidation prior to further upside, unless we see a rejection that is.
It's also nice to see many more Bitcoiners being level headed in this forum compared to elsewhere. Some people think we are already definitively in a bull market, or otherwise that the bull market will soon come to an end. Whereas personally I only see the bottom being in as highly likely, and whether this leads to a bull market is another story that will likely be written by what happens around $30K in the near future.
I guess majority here have matured enough, or has enough experienced to call what it is. That we are not yet in the bull run and this is just a recovery phase.
The term is pretty subjective and based on time-frames really. For example on the Weekly time-frame then price could rebound back to $50K, even $60K, and that wouldn't really be a bull market long-term with a lower high, simply a recovery as you put it. However on a Daily time-frame it'd be pretty bullish. Even the 4x increase from the lows in 2019 was a bear market rally, as opposed to bull market, hence price returned to the lows soon after the macro lower high. Others would call it a "mini-bull run", which I think is one way of putting it. It's sort of confirming that it's only a short term bull market, which after a bear market, is basically a relief rally.