Topic: Are you confident betting on handicap for heavy favorites or heavy underdog? (Read 139 times)

It's not simply about picking the favorite or the underdog. If you flip a coin to make your decision, you'll probably do about as good as blindly choosing favorite or the underdog. The oddmakers make so much money because people always like to bet the favorite and a good portion of the time the favorite doesn't cover the spread. You have to use what knowledge you can to analyze the game and decide to give the points or take the points. Look at who is injured(makes a huge difference), weather if it's an outdoor event, teams previous games, coach, and anything else that comes to mind.

Here's 1 of my bets today. Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 Cheifs are favored by 9 in this game but KC doesn't usually cover big spreads, not this year at least. I also do not trust the Partiots to not lose by less than 9. KC got embarrassed last week and lost to Buffalo by 3, so I think they will come out pissed and looking to score alot, but since they don't cover the spread by alot I took lower odds. I'm getting 1.42 for -3.5. There's a good chance they can cover 9 but I don't wanna risk it.

Another bet I have is the New York Giants +10.5. The Giants have won 3 of their last 4 games, the actual spread is New Orleans Saints favored by 5.5. So I took lower odds 1.38 and took alot of points hoping the Giants keep the hot streak up.

I'd rather look to bet a little safer in some situations vs trying to get high odds and maybe throwing away my money.

What sports you are referring here since that -6.5 is just few on games like Basketball and  Tennis while it’s too huge handicap for sports like Football and other sports that scoring is very low.

It depends on the team capability on choosing which side to choose. Assuming this is for sports that’s low scoring then I usually preferred to bet on underdog given that the underdog has a record on beating strong teams in the past.

In my opinion, this depends on the contest, when analyzing a certain game the person puts all options open and chooses based on the data they got from the game, the person cannot have preferences, because in the game it may be that the hadcap market does not is the ideal option and the over market is the ideal option, so the person will have to bet on the over market if they want to have a chance of being able to get the bet right and make a profit. There may also be a case where the only market that is viable is the draw-no-bet market and the person will have no choice, they will have to bet on that market. I don't get attached to any market when I place sports bets

For me, what matters is what I'm seeing from the analysis I've done of the game, the game itself is what guides me to the market I should bet on, I'm not making preferences as to how I'm going to bet on the over and under market while I haven't yet analyzed the I play exhaustively, I haven't seen the news about the teams. I hope that people don't make the mistake of only betting on a single market because in football games, for example, there are many markets and each game has markets that can be explored so that the person can obtain better results, in my case most of the time I bet on the winner, but sometimes on the over and under, I hardly bet on the hadcap, but when I bet on the hadcap I prefer to bet on the favorite when it has a decent odds

Betting on the favorites is the conservative strategy but the downside is lower rewards and if one game goes against then possibly you could lose the progress from a streak of games so mixing up may be the better approach.

Myself not a regular sports bettor so I do not have any particular strategy for someone who wants to find some serious strategies to consider but for a casual bettor then it may work always trust your instincts so you won't regret it even if the results are against as per your expectations.

I mostly bet on my favorites because I feel confident that they will win the game. After all, it's the confidence that we need to strike a win.
Betting on underdogs has been a good strategy too especially what we saw in Fifa where few underdogs won against the odds.
In such scenarios, it feels really nice when we win the bets on underdogs but the other times it's just an obvious loss.
Also, when the favorites win it makes us overwhelmed and even if they lose then we think that at least they tried.
So from that perspective, it's better betting on favorites.

This is a huge spread and it's hard to actually see this kind of odds. Well the heavy favorites can give you a profit but its not that much and of course the heavy underdog also have no guarantee to take the win and this is why I'm not dealing with such odds and I'd rather wait for a good match with a small spread. It is indeed that we all have different strategy and different approach in sports betting, I usually focus on my own and will adjust accordingly.

If the handicap is -6.5 then it depends on how the opponents of the team with the handicap -6.5 develop, because in matches especially football, which is the most popular sport, it will be very risky with handicap of -6.5 and I would prefer another option.
But with this handicap, the Odds you get will also be large, but it will be worth the risk you can accept and of course the betting strategy between types of sports will also be different for each gambler.
It just that for my betting strategy, I rarely use handicaps and prefer more certain results.

Very rarely in my betting experience do I use handicaps and usually I tend to bet on favorite teams and bet on certain outcomes such as victory or predicted scores for the match.
Moreover, winning in betting if I choose more certain result has given me more wins even though it is only with fairly low odd.
If the favorite is much better in terms of quality and performance then handicap betting strategy for the favorite is the best choice rather than betting on the underdog.

I've always liked backing the underdog. Yes, the underdog story attracts us, not simply the increased odds. My experience is that research (team chemistry, player situations, even weather) is significant. Underdog bets are riskier but may result in surprising financial and emotional gains! Value is found where others see risk. However, don't ignore the favorites. Consistency, strength, and possibly a good record make them favorites. Their odds, especially with a large handicap, may appear safe, but timing and context matter. Whatever the underdog's grit or the favorite's skills, enjoy the game responsibly. Sports betting's real winner knows when to play and when to stop. So, let's choose wisely and enjoy the bet

Betting on the underdog will give you bigger profit but with bigger risk as well. On the other hand, crowd favorite does not guarantee winning so better manage your funds well and avoid going all out. Just make a bet; no one could tell other than the result. I say depend on your analysis and not with the pulse of majority in order to avoid regrets no matter the outcome is at the same time it is where we would be confident of.
For sure we all have that experience.Most of the time I am going with my favorite as well simply because I'm betting for excitement and no longer solely for profit. Quite silly to think that when you are having gut feelingof winning big, that is the time you are losing. So I'll say just enjoy it.

It depends.
Most of the time I will take the favorite at -6.5 but first I would take a bit of effort to look at the history of the opponent if they have games where they upset favorites or they can fight a close game. I mean, I know teams who can really cover those kinds of spreads but when both teams that will play are average teams that can swing the pace and make some good runs then I'd rather pick the +6.5.
This is actually the amount where I doubt myself and my instincts also tell me that I should just take a pass. I'd take a -10.5 for a popular strong team, I'd also take a -3.5 for a close battle but when it comes to -6.5 it's in that section of a trap-looking bet or a chance it won't cover by a point.
Well, it's a good thing that there are many options in sports bookies. You could just try to adjust it if you want or if you are certain they will win in a blowout then take the higher spreads for better profits.

The OP can create a poll if this is a survey so we can easily get a glance about the users' sentiments here.
But in any case, there's a reason why a certain team is a heavy favorite/underdog. And that is for you to gauge on.
I won't give my exact answer on this, because it depends on athletes involved and what sports we are talking about.
But if I am very familiar with the players involved and know about their capabilities, I think I will bet even if they are underdog.
I will just follow my instincts on this one depending on the given situation. So no ultimate answer here I believe.

Depends I guess? I can favor the underdog if I actually know the team and their history but if not? Then the favorites 100%. That's just simple math imo. You can't exactly know what happens till it happens anyway, so you can only refer to known data and, well, in essence, the odds already are that data manifested in a summarized form so naturally you'd know or at least have some semblance of the difference between the two teams.


And from my experience, favorites naturally have a higher percentage of winning compared to underdogs. Based on profit though, I did win big twice on underdog bets but they're not as big compared to the over all total of my wins with favorites winning. If it was standalone then naturally underdogs win. Greater the risks greater the profit after all.

There's really no black and white answer for whether you oughta go with favorites or underdogs when you place a bet.  I mean sure, it's riskier to put your money on some huge underdog.  But hey, with bigger risk can come bigger rewards if you guess right. 

As for me, I don't have any set way I always bet.  Each game is different. So I gotta look into the teams playin', see how they been doin' lately.  Sometimes I'll throw a few bucks on an underdog, specially if it's my home team or something.  but usually I lean towards safer bets rather than some crazy longshot.

i believe it is not football because that is indeed high. basketball is quite easy for such handicap number. in this case, you can't really have a concrete answer as there are several factors that i think you need to consider if you are betting on the underdog or the favourite ---
- the teams involved (how strong they are, you will have the gut feel about this if you are a long time follower of the sports)
- their current coach, venue, conditions of the main players
- their current performance

but if they are heavy favourite, for sure, there's a very good reason and so being the heavy underdog. very few can make an upset on this match. but anything is possible when it comes to the actual game, as there are other factors we are blind at

i guess, i can only answer this type of question in the actual game as i need to weigh my chances given the actual circumstances surrounding the game itself.

Nah, I'm avoid to bet on heavy favorite or heavy underdog because the heavy favorite doesn't give a worth return, while the heavy underdog seems not convincing to win.

I usually bet on lines where the odds is around @2.00 since it has more chance to win and the return is quite good. If I want to get huge odds, then I will bet on parlay for many matches hoping my 0.1% of luck will comes.

Not all the time though, most of the time maybe, because when it's a high spread on the favorites, it normally tells that they will likely win in the game. If we can get some statistics on that, we can see the real picture if it would work backing a high spread favorite all the time is effective.

Everyone of us here have different ways in analyzing a game, we may use the same tool or information but the outcome or interpretation could be different, so it's still up to a gambler's perspective.

Anyway, I suggest that you add a poll, maybe it's clearer if we could also vote just to see the percentages.

OP hasn't mentioned the game he's referring to, however, I'm assuming he's betting unto basketball since he is very active in local and NBA threads. For football that's really high since even one goal it's hard to score, however, in basketball, that's easy since it's agame of run and players score 2 points for a single shot that is not beyond the arc.

Well... I guess I'm fine with high handicap, I mean on the favorite site because I think they are a heavy favorite for a reason, my only problem only is when I'm watching the game as if the game is close, the high handicap would unlikely to cover, and sometimes even if my team is ahead by many points, there's this big run that could happen anytime which would end up failing the favorite to cover despite the win.

You need to have that confident to bet on that high spread in my opinion. And for sure for those handicappers, I will say that they know what they are doing, and most likely this is the spread that might end up winning 80% of the time.

Just like what someone shares about the NBA games that most of us are betting. Teams that are on top, usually get -6.5 as initial listing and this could go as high as -9.5 depending on the teams that they are going to face. So it's up to you whether you go with the initial line that this handicappers are going to put in the beginning. If you are not that confident then go on the other line, uses the +6.5 or even ML for the underdog.

I have not seen Handicap to be this high before, probably because I go for big leagues and the handicap that I have seen are not more than two goals down or two goals more. I do not like to go for handicap in football betting which is the sport betting that I gamble with most. I prefer to go for other ones like straight win or sometime I can go for first half win.

You need to have a confident with your bet as high spread can be seen is a "hard to cover" bet.
When a team is so good and usually win by a huge margin, bookies would also consider that in making the line, so everything is fair on both sides, it's now up to us if we still believe and would be hopefully they'll conver.

The point here is not whether they'll win or lose, it's if they could cover the spread.



Both teams with high spread were able to cover the spread today.

Bucks was -16.5 against Pistons, and Sixers was -12 against Hornets, they (the favorites) covered it easily.