I've decided to let Grok do some gambling as a test to see how artificial intelligence would perform if given the opportunity. I am only using simple bets, like who will win each game. I will track the results here.
Starting things off, Grok has picked the following winners for today's NBA games. I may have to evolve my prompt a bit to get Grok to pick someone other than who has the best odds, but we'll see how things develop.
11/03/24 Result: ?/3
Dallas Mavericks beating the Orlando Magic
New Orleans Pelicans beating the Atlanta Hawks
Brooklyn Nets beating the Detroit Pistons
Total Results: ?/3
What is the data that Grok includes in the calculations? Does it scrape the internet for all kinds of data or does it only use statistical data like points scored vs. points conceived and some other markers?
What I have been wondering about: bookmakers adjust their odds such that they also match player's decisions in order to make sure that they end up having a safe bet more or less. Correct me if I am wrong on this one. If now anyone would be using AI, couldn't they just counter that by determining the odds such that any perceived AI advantage decreases to a minimum for their customers? I mean if everyone uses AI, isn't it all about having the best AI? If it were to turn out that one AI has generated long-term value, wouldn't bookmakers just have to use that AI themselves if they had access to it?
But I think there are so many totally surprising results, also in football, that I doubt AI would be able to outcompete a well versed person on average. Because in football (Bundesliga Germany), wh would AI be able to tell me that Pauli wins away from home against Hoffenheim? Or why would it tell me that Kiel beats Heidenheim? Why would it tell me that Dortmund beats Leipzig? It could have easily ended in a draw if it wasn't for the nuances that made Dortmund win? What about all those games that are decided by a last second winner? Or the games when some important player gets an injury or a red card early during a game? No AI an anticipate that.
Looking forward to your results though, but hopefully you'll do it for a little longer as three games isn't enough to make anything out of the results.