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Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1086. (Read 3917543 times)

full member
Activity: 130
Merit: 100
I think ASICMINER is the greatest Bitcoin investment at the moment, but I also think that the prices are too high right now to invest more than a couple of shares with some risk.

About hedging, shareholders can do it on their own with other ASIC companies. I sold about 1/4 of my shares very high yesterday to hedge the risk and buy BASIC-MINING shares with the proceeds. They have an AVALON batch 2 pending delivery and another batch 3 order on the way so I think if you are looking of another mining security with a good potential, that is not overvalued right now, it is worth making it some % of your portofolio on btct.co. And there are others, too.

Anyway, it's really nice to see that stock price above 2, and I will hold most of my shares for sure. I just wouldn't buy more at the current price. But I wouldn't call you silly if you did Wink

Agree with hedging.  To build on what you said, here is another one of many ways of hedging.  That is to write covered calls at BTC-TC.  A covered call will reduce your purchase cost, therefore reducing your capital at risk.  Hedging partially.

Another way of hedging is to figure out ASICminer stock beta, and purchase a security that has a beta value completely opposite of ASICminer share.  Suppose ASICminer share has beta of 1 in relation to BTC/USD, then purchase a security of -1 will complete the hedging.

Hedging is done when you achieve a beta neutral status or a net beta equals zero in regards to a basket of securities.  With beta neutral, the only way *not* to profit is having a static market.  A static market is no shares changed hands and no share price movement.  Static market is impossible given BTC's volatility.
hero member
Activity: 491
Merit: 500
Your site/signature needs a tip address Wink

Good idea!  I've done that.

Tip sent: https://blockchain.info/tx/40ed33fe25445d782c3ad34e258ce5e6dde218c1129e1dec4ccdf4d33dd54b55

A fitting post for me achieving "Hero" status! 500 posts Smiley

Mabrook! For what I am reading of you, you absolutely deserve it.

The concept of course is completely bs. I will not call names but some "Hero" posters here (especially in this thread) are a joke.
member
Activity: 97
Merit: 10

Tip sent: https://blockchain.info/tx/40ed33fe25445d782c3ad34e258ce5e6dde218c1129e1dec4ccdf4d33dd54b55

A fitting post for me achieving "Hero" status! 500 posts Smiley

Thanks!  And congratulations on the Hero status.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1094
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
member
Activity: 97
Merit: 10
Your site/signature needs a tip address Wink

Good idea!  I've done that.
full member
Activity: 251
Merit: 100
Du hast
What you did isn't a hedge, it's selling one thing to buy something else that is less valuable. Where's the hedge aspect?

Basically, I made a profit by selling some of my ASICMINER shares high (I think, time will tell), while I bought them much lower. And I still hold 75%.

That profit is for sure. Now I speculate that the BASIC-MINING stock price will rise when AVALON batch #2, then #3 ships. On the other hand, I think that there are chances that ASICMINER shares stock price goes lower than the current price (that what I call a small risk => hedge the risk). All in all, I hope to maximize my profits by doing so, while minimizing my risk if something very bad were to happen to ASICMINER

It's unlikely, and I hope not, as 3/4 of my assets are in ASICMINER. But now I have at least 1/4 invested elsewhere. Do you get my point? I'm not telling it the best strategy, I just sharing my thoughts... and holding 100% is perfectly OK, not saying the contrary.

This isn't a hedge at all, but diversifying after a large run up.  This happens to be a popular topic currently at The Motley Fool in the 3D, Tesla and Netflix forums, and here was a post someone there pointed out. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/02/01/the-greatest-secret-of-all.aspx

Now I hold ASICMINER and bASIC-MINNING as well as MININGCO.ETF to spread my exposure out, but I have no plans of selling anything, my ASICMINER shares are only up about 200%, so far from what many others have in gains.  Anyway, you have a couple of possible outcomes, you took some money off the table and put that to work in something else, for you to actually be right, not only does bASIC-MINNING have to rise, but it has to rise faster than ACISMINER, which you feel is going to pull back, only time will tell, but betting against momentum is not a good bet.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
I think someone just cashed out from btc-tc and moved part of their investment on bitfunder where prices were 0.1btc lower until some hours ago.

I think there's someone who wants to keep the stock price under control and not let the new surge of investors throw the price into a parabolic, crashing it and inciting panic. I wonder who this person could be Wink

Red bars, trying to balance the incline.
Green bars, people getting crazy (and all in between).



When there's not much demand it kind of just idle's as people hold their shares for the next incline. There's very little on either side trying to trade this, just holders and occasional sell offs to keep it balanced. For going long it's an investor dream.

Cool, someone found my charts useful Smiley   I like what you did with the bars.

Your site/signature needs a tip address Wink
member
Activity: 97
Merit: 10
I think someone just cashed out from btc-tc and moved part of their investment on bitfunder where prices were 0.1btc lower until some hours ago.

I think there's someone who wants to keep the stock price under control and not let the new surge of investors throw the price into a parabolic, crashing it and inciting panic. I wonder who this person could be Wink

Red bars, trying to balance the incline.
Green bars, people getting crazy (and all in between).



When there's not much demand it kind of just idle's as people hold their shares for the next incline. There's very little on either side trying to trade this, just holders and occasional sell offs to keep it balanced. For going long it's an investor dream.

Cool, someone found my charts useful Smiley   I like what you did with the bars.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1035
What you did isn't a hedge, it's selling one thing to buy something else that is less valuable. Where's the hedge aspect?

Basically, I made a profit by selling some of my ASICMINER shares high (I think, time will tell), while I bought them much lower. And I still hold 75%.

That profit is for sure. Now I speculate that the BASIC-MINING stock price will rise when AVALON batch #2, then #3 ships. On the other hand, I think that there are chances that ASICMINER shares stock price goes lower than the current price (that what I call a small risk => hedge the risk). All in all, I hope to maximize my profits by doing so, while minimizing my risk if something very bad were to happen to ASICMINER

It's unlikely, and I hope not, as 3/4 of my assets are in ASICMINER. But now I have at least 1/4 invested elsewhere. Do you get my point? I'm not telling it the best strategy, I just sharing my thoughts... and holding 100% is perfectly OK, not saying the contrary.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
I think ASICMINER is the greatest Bitcoin investment at the moment, but I also think that the prices are too high right now to invest more than a couple of shares with some risk.

About hedging, shareholders can do it on their own with other ASIC companies. I sold about 1/4 of my shares very high yesterday to hedge the risk and buy BASIC-MINING shares with the proceeds. They have an AVALON batch 2 pending delivery and another batch 3 order on the way so I think if you are looking of another mining security with a good potential, that is not overvalued right now, it is worth making it some % of your portofolio on btct.co. And there are others, too.

Anyway, it's really nice to see that stock price above 2, and I will hold most of my shares for sure. I just wouldn't buy more at the current price. But I wouldn't call you silly if you did Wink

What you did isn't a hedge, it's selling one thing to buy something else that is less valuable. Where's the hedge aspect?
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1035
I think ASICMINER is the greatest Bitcoin investment at the moment, but I also think that the prices are too high right now to invest more than a couple of shares with some risk.

About hedging, shareholders can do it on their own with other ASIC companies. I sold about 1/4 of my shares very high yesterday to hedge the risk and buy BASIC-MINING shares with the proceeds. They have an AVALON batch 2 pending delivery and another batch 3 order on the way so I think if you are looking of another mining security with a good potential, that is not overvalued right now, it is worth making it some % of your portofolio on btct.co. And there are others, too.

Anyway, it's really nice to see that stock price above 2, and I will hold most of my shares for sure. I just wouldn't buy more at the current price. But I wouldn't call you silly if you did Wink
full member
Activity: 130
Merit: 100
I want ASICMiner to hedge their production buy selling futures contracts against the bitcoin-fiat exchange rate.

Can a futures market be established in china or hong kong?

A good idea to bring in more options and financial products to table.

There is serious risk, however, with futures contracts.

With futures contracts, one can create derivatives, and then create credit default swaps.  These are very potent and powerful tools to manipulate Bitcoin values to fiat currency rate.  We can't ever escape the fact we have to exchange Bitcoin to fiat currency to pay for electricity, product shipping, airplane tickets for bitcoin conference, etc.

Futures contracts allow leverage, and allow relatively few people to manipulate quantifiable "things".  The ASICminer share price is quantified with numbers.  BTC/USD exchange rate is quantified with number. 

Futures plus thinly traded market equals easy manipulation.
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
I want ASICMiner to hedge their production buy selling futures contracts against the bitcoin-fiat exchange rate.

Can a futures market be established in china or hong kong?

It's a lot simpler to just keep a part of the savings in BTC and a part in fiat. However, Friedcat is very bullish about Bitcoin and that's why he prefers to avoid converting funds to fiat.

So far this strategy has worked remarkably well.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
I want ASICMiner to hedge their production buy selling futures contracts against the bitcoin-fiat exchange rate.

Can a futures market be established in china or hong kong?
full member
Activity: 131
Merit: 100
Maybe ASICMINER should look into starting their own pool. Reduce their variance with solo mining, and earn fees off the people that want to mine there (especially people who bought ASICMINER hardware).

this has been rejected. AM will not make a pool. however they might solo mine.

what's the reason not to make a pool ?

DDoS risk, maintenance...

I agree. AM should keep focus on what it's good at. Running a pool might be profitable but I doubt it's as profitable as their core business (designing, manufacturing and selling hardware, plus mining). Running a pool would be a boat-anchor on returns for those who like reinvesting dividends.

To put this in perspective: if AM were entirely solo mining, it would be earning for its shareholders 100% of 20-30% of all coins mined. By running a pool, even if it was the biggest pool allowed, (50%), that would be 1.5% of all coins mined. (Subtracting of course any of that hash power that belongs to them).

In other words, AM makes 10 times the amount of btc that the largest pool operator theoretically possible could make. (Assuming a standard 3% cut.) For all the customer service and security headaches, there is NO reason AM should get into this.

IE: If they started a public pool, I would in almost all certainty sell my shares, as it would show incredibly poor judgement. (Which would be very uncharacteristic for Friedcat.)

-helixone
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
with all the hash they have AM could be the next BTCGuild if they want to, they sure have capital to do it.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
Maybe ASICMINER should look into starting their own pool. Reduce their variance with solo mining, and earn fees off the people that want to mine there (especially people who bought ASICMINER hardware).

this has been rejected. AM will not make a pool. however they might solo mine.

what's the reason not to make a pool ?

DDoS risk, maintenance...

I agree. AM should keep focus on what it's good at. Running a pool might be profitable but I doubt it's as profitable as their core business (designing, manufacturing and selling hardware, plus mining). Running a pool would be a boat-anchor on returns for those who like reinvesting dividends.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

Hopefully though, not all will see it this way, and price will stop rising, and perhaps dip, and we'll be able to keep reinvesting dividends in cheap AM shares.

-helixone

Sssshh!  Wink
full member
Activity: 131
Merit: 100
http://deepfriedcat.com

According to its charts, seems that the hashrate has dropped suddenly more than expected... any knowledge on this? solomining?

Likely moving Hashes to solomining. However, this is insignificant in Friedcat's "conservative" expectations to reach 1000TH by end of this year. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1604192

Hopefully though, not all will see it this way, and price will stop rising, and perhaps dip, and we'll be able to keep reinvesting dividends in cheap AM shares.

-helixone
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