It seems our ASICMINER shares just got worth a little bit more.
BFL announced another much anticipated new delay. Will be about 30 days from now until they get their chips delivered from the foundry. Then they need to turn those into mining rigs of course, which means BFL customers probably won't be mining before the latter part of January 2013.
So if everything with ASICMINER stays on schedule that means we will be mining on a lower difficulty level for 3 to 4 weeks. With about 1/5th of the total network network capacity.
Sounds good to me
edit: BFL update link:
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/519-10-dec-2012-bfl-asic-update.htmlSo let's do some back-of-the-envelope calculations here: on Dec 5, friedcat said there were 12 layers remaining and the rate is 1.1-1.5 days per layer, which brings us to chip completion date of between Dec 18 and Dec 23. Add another two weeks for packaging and shipping (estimate pulled out of thin air!), then one more week of unwrapping/assembly, which brings us to an estimated hashing starting date of between Jan 8 and Jan 13. Sound reasonable?
And for BFL: chips delivered to their HQ Jan 11, unwrapping/assembly: 1 week, shipping to customers: 4 days, which gives us an estimated hashing starting date of Jan 22.
Pretty close race, but it looks like ASICMINER definitely will win it. I even think it is likely that ASICMINER will move a little faster than estimated above, and BFL will move slower than estimated above. But these back-of-the-envelope calculations give us at least a week as the only ASIC gig in town!
When those chips are ready, is it guaranteed they actually work or will there be a random testing? Will this happen before or after the shipping to ASICMINER team?
How many chips (%) will be lemons? 10%? 20%? 30%? Lets not forget that this stuff is coming from China, the biggest producer of crap in the world.
BFL nor ASICMINER are big clients. They can scream and threaten, but this will not guarantee quality nor delivery dates. Yes, Chinese manufacturers are well known for "me price so low" but we all know that "Made in China" is a synonym for "shit"
Friend of mine, who is in business of building non BTC related hardware, told that expecting those greedy slimy chinese dogs to deliver anything on time and up to the quality requirements is flat out stupid. The fun starts, when your shipment arrives and you realize, that up N% of the stuff is actually junk.
Talked to another friend in optics business. Same story. Price per unit is low but the local quality control is probably done by blind kids.
BTW, if you ever make it to China, go visit some of the factory dump sites. You will see mountains! yes, mountains! of crap that has never made it out the door.
Make sure you do not get caught and ware protective clothing. China is not inly the biggest crap producer but they are also the biggest polluters. Humans cost nothing over there.
I did not want to piss on your parade. I honestly hope you guys get a better results. Be optimist and x 2 everything they tell you (and you still get screwed by half)