Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1295. (Read 3917524 times)

Again: It would not be in ASICMINERs interest to do a "51% attack". And if no one believes they actually have the best interest at heart then why would you believe BFL. maybe BFL is a secret CIA outfit setup to gain the trust of people to get as many pre-orders as possible, so they can build ASICs and do a 51% attack with the money of people that believe in Bitcoin.... would be the most ironic scam ever.... A majoritiy of miners funding the demise of Bitcoin....

Enough tin foil hat fairy tales for tonight !

ASICMINER is here to serve the interest of their shareholders and doing anything funny that cripples the value of Bitcoin is not one of them!

You don't "control" anything as a miner, the pool operator does. You simply contribute the hash power into their hands. They choose what to do with it and how. Therefore yes, if ASICMINER is the first to start, it would be prudent to distribute the power.

What is the purpose of sharing the hashing between pools? As long as the actual farm can be controlled from a central point, how it is balanced shouldn't change much. AFAIK the original idea to even use a public pool was only for transparency. Best measure against an attack would be to divide the farm itself to multiple disconnected locations and actively seek to transfer control to other entities.

A few more points to consider: (1) current network hash rate is closer to 18-20 GH/s than 24 GH/s, (2) the estimate of 12 GH/s was conservative and already considered that 1/3 of the chips won't work - if successful ASICMINERs hashing power could be anywhere between 12 and 18 GH/s, (3) the increase in difficulty due to ASICMINER could cause other miners to give up.

Taking those into consideration, the estimates in the posts above could even be on the conservative side.

However, this also opens up a very real possibility of a single outfit owning >50% of the network hash rate, which could cause a great deal of panic because the "51% attack" is widely misunderstood and feared. That could cause the exchange rate to tank. Would probably be a good idea to share the hashing power between a few different pools and do some self-mining, just to avoid a >50% panic in the beginning...

I haven't laughed this hard all week. Thanks man.

You don't know if we believe the assumptions of the calculations.
But do believe me: the reading is easier when one shortens a lengthy quote while adding one line.

You guys are living in fantasy land.  If you really think ASICs are going to ramp that fast and soon, you could make plenty of coins buying X.DIFF.MAR on mpex.

I understand why you was under the impression. But that's incorrect assumption.
The difficulty adjustment tries to keep people earning 3600 BTC per day, but every additional hashrate earns additional money until next adjustment.
However while taking into account the difficulty was the right thing, my results were improper: I corrected only the time until the adjustment but the whole calculation was flawed.

Look. When someone add 6 TH to existing 24 TH, there is 3600+900 earned each day. The adjustment comes no later than after 11.2 days.
Then the difficulty grows to 5/4 of the previous value (the 6/5 was a mistake) and all are earning 3600 daily. The 6 TH earns 720 per day (a part of 3600) and any additional 6 TH would earn 720 daily (not part of 3600).

The ASICMINER would earn 900*11.2=10080 BTC plus 720*(14-11.2)=2016 BTC, so 12096 BTC for the first two weeks, and then (720+720)*7=10080 BTC for the third week.
In total 22176 BTC for three weeks (at most - when it starts on the day of the difficulty adjustment).

Finally some light at the end of the tunnel.

my +1 for BitFunder

I thought I might have saved this for a reason:

I was under the impression that difficulty doesn't matter in this case

If you look at the % of the total  network you can just use the theoretical number of Bitcoins mined and that is always the same (because of difficulty adjustments).
25 BTC per block, 6 blocks per hour, so  3600 BTC per day no matter what the difficulty.

If anything getting 6TH online on a lower difficulty will mean you mine those BTC quicker, bringing the higher difficulty forward. It won;t impact the number of BTC mined by ASICMINER

A small correction.
For simplicity I assume they will start just after difficulty adjustment.
When they make the 24 TH grow to 30 TH, the difficulty will be adjusted earlier.  It'll be adjusted after 5/6 * 14 days = 11.6 days, to 6/5 higher value.
So there would be ~8400 BTC for the first ~11.6 days plus ~1400 BTC for the next  ~2.4 days (of higher difficulty) before next batch.
Than the third week would give 8400 * 5/6 = ~7000 BTC (because of 6/5 times higher difficulty).

So a total of 16800 BTC would be mined by ASICMINER in the first 3 weeks.

Except nefario claimed he thoroughly vetted every asset on GLBSE, and did nothing when one or more mining companies flooded the market with shares not backed by assets and managed to collapse the market.

In addition, around 2k was invested in DMC, and I've already paid half of that back and bought back half the shares before the collapse of GLBSE.

The most you can claim is DMC lost half its value (the other half of the shares I have not repurchased yet), but then it'd still be nefario's fault because he closed GLBSE and fucked every asset issuer on there including the ones DMC invested in.

Let's do some back of an envelope math for the value of the shares:

Assumptions:
1. ASICMINER starts mining Jan 1st 2013 with 6TH
2. ASICMINER brings online another 6TH Jan 14th
3. BFL and Avalon customers start mining Jan 21st
4. Network hashrate stays around these levels between now and Jan 1st

ASICMINER will be about 1/5th of the total network for 2 weeks (6 out of 30 TH)
This means they will  mine 1/5th off the Bitcoins for 14 days = (14 * 24 * 6 * 25) / 5 =  10080 BTC
They will mine for one week with 1/3rd of the total network (12 / 36 TH) = (7 * 24 * 6 *25) / 3 = 8400 BTC

So a total of 18480 BTC will be mined by ASICMINER in the first 3 weeks

Divided by 200.000 shares = 0.0924 BTC per share. Which brings us close to the point where the other 200.000 shares owned by Friedcat et al will start receiving dividend as well (after 0.10 BTC is paid out as dividend)

After BFL and Avalon customers start mining as well the total hashrate will go up to perhaps 200 - 250 TH

ASICMINER will slowely build out their mining farm to 50TH, becoming 1/6th of the total network, perhaps less but will also add a new revenue stream by selling ASICs to customers.

Being 1/6th of the network will yield (7 * 24 * 6 * 25) / 6 = 4200 BTC per week divided by 400.000 shares = 0.01 BTC div per week

Valuation for the shares based on this:

Anyones guess, but looking at how mining stock and bonds were valued on GLBSE then I would say well over 1 BTC per share

disclaimer: back of the envelope valuations are not based on actual figures and the mathematician can not be held responsible should investments yield anything less than expected !

Yeah, he screwed you for the last 10% of invested funds after you'd lost the first 90% all on your own.

Back on topic, last traded price of ASICMINER on GLBSE was around .108 (about 10 minutes beofre GLBSE died top bid was about .105 and lowest Ask about .11).

It had usually been trading in the .11 - .12 area but had fallen just below that last few days of GLBSE as someone was unloading a big chunk of them.  That had happened before - and price had always rebounded back up afterwards.  On most recent news I'd tend to value them a bit higher - but it's a total gamble given how completely unreliable initial delivery dates have been for all ASICs (and the potential for more significant delay on this one and others in later stages of product assembly/testing).

DMC got screwed by nefario, is what happened.

I don't recall the last price, but the price I paid for my 1000 shares was 0.1

I'd say that, given the ASIC race that apparently we're winning, today's settled price could be around 0.18

That being the case, I'd like to buy some at 0.13 and turn a profit. But I can't, because they aren't being traded.

Community hype could drive the price up as high as .25 on re-listing, in which case I'd sell half my holdings to buy back on a correction.

Maybe there's someone out there with 1000 shares that needs money for Christmas - how can they convert their holdings to BTC?

Did you miss what happened to DMC?

I've got 1000 shares I paid 0.1 BTC for.    I'll buy whatever shares you have for 0.135 BTC

Don't want sell them to me at that price? Maybe someone else does. Would you sell yours for 0.2 BTC? Maybe someone would pay that. Maybe someone would pay me 0.3 BTC, in which case I'd sell.

If only there was some way we could know how much people would bid, and how much shareholders would ask...........

After the 1st dividend payment by ASICMINER and still no option to trade the shares, everyone that does not have shares is missing out