Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 549. (Read 3917468 times)

Could you expand on this:

jutarul is in this forum? link?

any reason why friedcat didn't want to include update of gen2 progress(skipped or whatever) in his couple of latest updates?

edit: oh never mind, i see jutarul, lol i am red face 

Is there a way to play the game right now??

I have invested in both AM and KNC (2nd day order !) at different times, and both have seriously let me down.

I'm really worried about the mining ecosystem...

1. GHash.io is the largest pool. They have proven to be dishonest.
2. ASICMiner tanked and its health depends entirely on the promise of Gen3 for Q1.
3. I can't find an actual number..  but it seems to me like the vast majority of people who invested on (any) Gen1 ASIC lost money in terms of BTC. Let's not even mention the guys who pre-ordered BFL, they should've known.
4. All ASIC companies have pre-mined with the for-sale equipment (correct me if I'm wrong here, but that is my understanding).

For me it boils down to a dilemma I cannot wrap my head around:

If I make a money printing machine, why would I sell it for less than the money it can print?
If I sell it for less, who would wanna buy it?

It seems like all ASIC companies have chosen to sell for more than the machines can produce, and from their point of view, it was the correct decision.

They knew the answer to the second question: the inexperienced, the misinformed, the lazy and the gullible.

So what I want to know actually, is who profited the most out of Gen1 ?

Clearly it was not the customers.

All clues lead to the ASIC companies.

Why is it not reflected on div or cheaper costs for the next gen ??
How long can this strategy work, where all losses go to the customers and all profits to ASIC makers?

I'm not investing in mining again any time soon, but I see there are lots of people who think it's still a great idea to get on that 1st day pre-order..

I know there's a lot of experienced and heavily invested miners here. Maybe I'm missing something here? Can someone please enlighten me??

I believe it was mentioned in the interview and was confirmed by board member jutarul.

The current situation is more or less a mess, because either companies are actively involved in fraud or have not developed the necessary pricing schemes to protect customers enough from the market volatility and network growth. AM is currently pioneering a business model which should insulate customers from network growth projection errors, but it will likely be reserved for larger businesses and collaborations (franchise).

The only way to make profit right now in terms of btc is to take advantage of the tech arbitrage between the cost of building your miner and the yield. That's why AM (dependent on valuation) is principally a better choice than just outright buying a miner at market value. That narrative will change to power cost arbitrage, but not before the operating profit margins from mining are down to less than 2-5 fold.

That narrative will change to power cost arbitrage, but not before the operating profit margins from mining are down to less than 2-5 fold.

You clearly know nothing about BTC mining and don't want to learn anything.

As you said you are here to flame AM. Go read FC's post history and learn something new.

Is this sustainable?

This is not an AM flame.. I've just been thinking about this a lot lately and I'd love some opinions from the experienced people that are actually in the business of mining.

i checked friedcats posts, and i don't see any statement where he says gen2 is skipped, etc

any link to source where it says gen 2 is stopped/skipped?

Literally anything you do with btc will not yeild as much return as just holding btc due to the rapid increase in price. In terms of USD almost everyone who bought an asic or invested in asicminer came out ahead.

The reason we are seeing such a price dip is because gen2 chips from AM were skipped which lead to a long gap between new hardware. The reason it was skipped was due to unsatisfactory performance and FC believes gen3 is more promising. Also by skipping gen2, gen3 will arrive sooner.

I'm sorry if you don't understand.

You sound like a broken cassette player looping the latest announcement.

I'm interested in a honest discussion and learning about the mining ecosystem, and how it works from the inside.

I don't understand what you mean by we are paying for asic maker profits. AM sold as much gen1 as they could and are preparing for much more efficient gen3.

I assume the plan is to replace all the solomining chips with gen3 bringing AM back to 10% network hashrate and add hardware sales on top of that. Could very well be sustainable if AM is able to provide competitive hardware.

And when you invest in AM you are investing in bitcoin mining as a whole. We know that literally every single ASIC yielded less than if you were to just buy btc at the time and hold.

Yeah, I know that, I follow the thread. But where's all the money from Gen1 ?

Traditionally in the stock market, divs are a function of books and profits.

Here, we cannot see the books and divs ran to the promise of 10% network share, that was silently dropped.

I'm sure as hell there has been a lot of profits.

Why aren't they used to sustain the stock div if it is known that the 10% promise is unattainable and will be dropped?

We're talking about the customers who are funding your own growth.. why wouldn't you take care of them?

Soon competition will flow like crazy. It'd be good to give something back and gain some very valuable loyalty.

The reason we are seeing such a price dip is because gen2 chips from AM were skipped which lead to a long gap between new hardware. The reason it was skipped was due to unsatisfactory performance and FC believes gen3 is more promising. Also by skipping gen2, gen3 will arrive sooner.

Thinking in terms of USD makes no sense when you paid in BTC. It is just a way of justifying a bad investment.

Most people paid in BTC. Even in the case of KNC, who only sold in USD. Groupbuys were in BTC.

And still, you said it, buying BTC with those USD would've netted a whole lot more.

So...  what's the point?

I love paying for a more secure network, but not even that is happening. Quite the opposite.

Seems like we are just paying for greater ASIC maker profits, that never get reinvested in the customers making them rich.

What is the future of mining? Will it play out this same way for the next couple years?

Is this sustainable?

This is not an AM flame.. I've just been thinking about this a lot lately and I'd love some opinions from the experienced people that are actually in the business of mining.

Literally anything you do with btc will not yeild as much return as just holding btc. In terms of USD almost everyone who bought an asic machine or invested in asicminer came out ahead.

Is there a way to play the game right now??

I have invested in both AM and KNC (2nd day order !) at different times, and both have seriously let me down.

I'm really worried about the mining ecosystem...

1. GHash.io is the largest pool. They have proven to be dishonest.
2. ASICMiner tanked and its health depends entirely on the promise of Gen3 for Q1.
3. I can't find an actual number..  but it seems to me like the vast majority of people who invested on (any) Gen1 ASIC lost money in terms of BTC. Let's not even mention the guys who pre-ordered BFL, they should've known.
4. All ASIC companies have pre-mined with the for-sale equipment (correct me if I'm wrong here, but that is my understanding).

For me it boils down to a dilemma I cannot wrap my head around:

If I make a money printing machine, why would I sell it for less than the money it can print?
If I sell it for less, who would wanna buy it?

It seems like all ASIC companies have chosen to sell for more than the machines can produce, and from their point of view, it was the correct decision.

They knew the answer to the second question: the inexperienced, the misinformed, the lazy and the gullible.

So what I want to know actually, is who profited the most out of Gen1 ?

Clearly it was not the customers.

All clues lead to the ASIC companies.

Why is it not reflected on div or cheaper costs for the next gen ??
How long can this strategy work, where all losses go to the customers and all profits to ASIC makers?

I'm not investing in mining again any time soon, but I see there are lots of people who think it's still a great idea to get on that 1st day pre-order..

I know there's a lot of experienced and heavily invested miners here. Maybe I'm missing something here?

Can someone please enlighten me??

it's a kids play if you don't know how to play. Of course crappy exchanges are a big problem, I just hope the free market will take care of it in near future (meaning that there will be at least a few stable and reliant exchanges). I'm holding direct shares which is obviously the safest option right now but if I wanted to trade with them it's pretty hard.

Simply I just quit playing for now, lost 82% of my BTC asset. I don't blame anyone but my own poor judgement of investment. Without proper regulation and stable exchange, BTC securities investment is just a kid's play, of course, a dangerous one.

I would describe it as "partly irrational but highly understandable".

All AM shareholders would love to believe Gen3 will be amazing, regain 10% of the network, AM won't be sabotaged or fall foul of some "regulations" in China, bitcoin won't collapse, FC won't run off with our money etc etc.

So there are lots of risk factors out there. That is why people don't look further than this week.

Just depends on your risk profile. If you love risky stuff, buy some AM shares in the next month when they dip under 0.20. You could well make an amazing profit. But it could equally well blow up in your face. Nobody knows.