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Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 550. (Read 3917468 times)

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.

I would describe it as "partly irrational but highly understandable".

All AM shareholders would love to believe Gen3 will be amazing, regain 10% of the network, AM won't be sabotaged or fall foul of some "regulations" in China, bitcoin won't collapse, FC won't run off with our money etc etc.

So there are lots of risk factors out there. That is why people don't look further than this week.

Just depends on your risk profile. If you love risky stuff, buy some AM shares in the next month when they dip under 0.20. You could well make an amazing profit. But it could equally well blow up in your face. Nobody knows.
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.

Bitcoin securities markets are irrational, people want quick week on week gains so 2 months of no divs means 2 months their money is doing nothing so they take it out of the stock. I agree with you and go long term but to each his own.

They are not THAT irrational.

Dividend payments and verifiable hash rates speak louder than promises, esp. when the company has failed to deliver for a number of months and the competition has stepped up meanwhile.
hero member
Activity: 583
Merit: 500
Bitcoin for all & all for Bitcoin
For people looking to jump onto a larger stockpile of AM shares, 0.1BTC (+/-.01) will be hard to resist.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
A pumpkin mines 27 hours a night
Who wants to bet we will be below IPO by mid January ?

I don't know... below IPO will be really cheap, I bet there are a lot of people who are more than willing to buy at such low prices. Those who believe in AM's performance next spring.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.
Who wants to bet we will be below IPO by mid January ?
sr. member
Activity: 330
Merit: 250
It will only go to 0.5+ when Gen3 is about to happen, when the chips are being poured into that lovely hot liquid Smiley
Not too hot, hopefully.
sr. member
Activity: 347
Merit: 250

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.

Bitcoin securities markets are irrational, people want quick week on week gains so 2 months of no divs means 2 months their money is doing nothing so they take it out of the stock. I agree with you and go long term but to each his own.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
Currently BTC is a risky investment by any standard. To invest in a company whose whole business model is based upon that risk carries even more risk. And then once you dump all of that into a blender and mix it up, you get to pour it out amidst the backdrop of hundreds of other BTC companies going bust over the last year and every investor losing everything. The level of risk starts to approach ludicrous speed.

At this point in the history of BTC and AM, the risk is so large that there is no real model that can realistically balance out the enormous risk. And make no mistake, it is enormous. Therefore, the rational investor will see weekly dividends as a way to try and shave off a little of that mountain of risk. Each time the div goes into the wallet, a small portion of risk has been mitigated. The share price is adjusted accordingly to reflect this.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.

Isn't that irrational market behavior? You would think the share price reflects investors feelings about future dividends. The fact that the share price is so highly correlated to the week-to-week dividends is very puzzling to me.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500

because FC has announced Gen3 won't be out until (approximately) springtime, and there is nothing to prop up dividends until then. Since the AM share price is largely a function of last week's dividends, it makes sense that the share price will drop continually. Its actually dropped for 26 weeks now, in line with dividend reductions.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
So, after giving it a lot of thought, I've realized that if there was ONE question I would want to ask friedcat... it would be: what is 5 year vision for ASICMINER?
(if thinking 5 years out in the Bitcoin world is too crazy, then maybe just 2 years)

What do other people think about this question?

Vision is sometimes very far away from reality you know ... Friedcat also had "vision" about :

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.

and look where are we ...

Well he'd have to be about one step up from God to know what was going to happen to bitcoin in 12 months time. You still need to have a vision though, just constantly adjust your plans as you go along. He's only human you know.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
Price of each share?
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
So, after giving it a lot of thought, I've realized that if there was ONE question I would want to ask friedcat... it would be: what is 5 year vision for ASICMINER?
(if thinking 5 years out in the Bitcoin world is too crazy, then maybe just 2 years)

What do other people think about this question?

Vision is sometimes very far away from reality you know ... Friedcat also had "vision" about :

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.

and look where are we ...
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
So, after giving it a lot of thought, I've realized that if there was ONE question I would want to ask friedcat... it would be: what is 5 year vision for ASICMINER?
(if thinking 5 years out in the Bitcoin world is too crazy, then maybe just 2 years)

What do other people think about this question?

5 bitcoin years is like 100 real years. I don't think anyone can have a vision that long. 2 years is much more realistic but I'm not really that keen on pre-announcing your "vision" to all your competitors. Understand fully you'd like to know, so would I, but so would his competitors as well. Best kept under his fried hat.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
So, after giving it a lot of thought, I've realized that if there was ONE question I would want to ask friedcat... it would be: what is 5 year vision for ASICMINER?
(if thinking 5 years out in the Bitcoin world is too crazy, then maybe just 2 years)

What do other people think about this question?
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Anyone want to unload their AM shares quick, then PM me. I can buy a bunch. My offer is .2/BTC . That's lower than the current share price, but probably not for long.
It is a very dry market so this is your chance to get a good amount of BTC.

There's 3 auctions started today with no takers.  Your offer will look good to them in a few days  Wink



With the price sliding every day, not a good time to start an auction, but interesting to see what people buy at .... if at all. Have you got a URL for any of these auctions?

This is the biggest auction

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3939912


150 shares up for sale

Cool thanks for the link. He might get a few takers at 0.27 but if I wanted to get rid, I would have made it a 48-hour auction instead.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.
Anyone want to unload their AM shares quick, then PM me. I can buy a bunch. My offer is .2/BTC . That's lower than the current share price, but probably not for long.
It is a very dry market so this is your chance to get a good amount of BTC.

There's 3 auctions started today with no takers.  Your offer will look good to them in a few days  Wink



With the price sliding every day, not a good time to start an auction, but interesting to see what people buy at .... if at all. Have you got a URL for any of these auctions?

This is the biggest auction

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3939912

150 shares up for sale
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