But why even base your investment on past history. Lets all just assume that after tape out FC is going blow it and or take unreasonably long. Because FUD.
I'm basing my investment decisions on present facts. For example, the fact that the price-to-book ratio is worse than it was in March when there was no real competition in sight. I need to make no assumptions about FC failing.
If you need to counter every bear argument with "what FUD" you might want to re-evaluate your own biases toward FC/ASICMiner. I assure you that if FC's news today was that the masks were done and they are currently producing Gen3 chips, my reaction would be quite different.
When I predicted 0.3 BTC/share a few months ago, I expected pretty much this exact situation. Nothing has changed.
Keep in mind that successful investing comes down to superior information. If you don't know anything about semiconductor manufacturing, you might want to reconsider if you really have an edge here.