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Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 675. (Read 3917468 times)

full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100
Manipulation of course, same as the sudden drop in gold prices that bares no relation to logical trading practices. Look across other markets and you'll see the same thing with little or no attempt to hide it. Its another desperate attempt to prop up confidence in the USD by making other markets look unattractive, ie. can kicking on a massive scale. We've had everything from the stone age to the communications age and we're now in the retard age because delays create employment dontchknow. Not much point worrying about it, its just a dying empire lashing out at everything around it in the hope of postponing the inevitable.

Que "markets can remain irrational..." and "conspiracy nut" misdirection comments Wink

I just want to add that without a government or currency, the value of silver and gold in the short-term would most likely fall. This is due to the fact that it is primarily used as a hedge against inflation (or a long-term value store.)

Here's a neat graph illustrating long-term PM prices during inflationary periods:

http://media.pimco.com/PublishingImages/PIMCO_Strategy_Spotlight_Johnson_Walny_Fig1.PNG
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000
I think the KnC news had a lot to do with the recent drop.
Their miners are performing way above their promises, with tweaking people get 600+GH out of a miner that was only sold to do 400.
They plan to have all orders shipped by October 15th. The difficulty will go completely insane, it will definitely be the biggest relative increase of this year.
I suspect we'll see it at least double within two weeks, so AM's mining income will half.

The 500TH will do some damage control, but with gen1 chips it means 50,000 boards to either deploy or sell. That's quite a lot, and it will take a while.
The most important thing for AM in my opinion is that they get gen2 going ASAP.

also there is a chance that knc hashpower is already online.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
I think the KnC news had a lot to do with the recent drop.
Their miners are performing way above their promises, with tweaking people get 600+GH out of a miner that was only sold to do 400.
They plan to have all orders shipped by October 15th. The difficulty will go completely insane, it will definitely be the biggest relative increase of this year.
I suspect we'll see it at least double within two weeks, so AM's mining income will half.

The 500TH will do some damage control, but with gen1 chips it means 50,000 boards to either deploy or sell. That's quite a lot, and it will take a while.
The most important thing for AM in my opinion is that they get gen2 going ASAP.
full member
Activity: 236
Merit: 100
www.bitcoingem.com
Whats causing the share dump?
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
shares haven't been this cheap since march

I wonder if vycid is now a bull at these prices? Too bad if he has to change his avatar.

Eh, I'm not really inclined to short anymore at 1.2 BTC, but I'm not bullish either. I'm definitely in a "wait and see" mode - anything else would be gambling at this point.

If AM is to be worth 1.2 BTC, Friedcat needs to deliver above and beyond all the promises he's already made. The discussions about how the 500 TH up for "deployment" soon being worth 0.1 BTC should put that in perspective, considering how AM is still part of the very early crowd at this point. Margins will continue shrinking.

If no mind-blowing news comes within the next month or so I will resume a bearish stance.

Reminds me I need to take the disclosure off my sig since I'm not net short anymore  Smiley

My personal recommendation to investors is to close your positions pending news. There's a lot of downside potential.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
there are miners out there that do not really care of electricity considering $/BTC getting higher and higher, $/Gh pry most important.
legendary
Activity: 882
Merit: 1000
Compared with the other competitors, the main difference is the watts per GH. Bitfury is 1.0w/GH, KnC 1.4w/GH, and AM 7.0w/GH.

If running for 365 * 24 hours, AM blader will use 52.5Kw/GH more than Bitfury.

In a place electricity costs $0.15/Kw, AM blader has to be $7.875/GH cheaper than Bitfury (currently $20/GH). Therefore, the price of next batch (if it can be sold in October) may be around $11-12/GH.

Of course, if most users plan to run the miner for more than 1 year, then the price of blader needs to be cheaper. (1.5years -> $8/GH, 2 years -> $4/GH)

Anyone knows the cost of blader?
full member
Activity: 127
Merit: 100
Right now AM is in last place at mining.thegenesisblock.com and AM is "waiting." News of AM shipping at competitive prices is probably the only thing that will make price go up, and I'm counting on it.
legendary
Activity: 882
Merit: 1000
shares haven't been this cheap since march
Maybe due to the shipping of KnC.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
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shares haven't been this cheap since march

I wonder if vycid is now a bull at these prices? Too bad if he has to change his avatar.
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
shares haven't been this cheap since march
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
I saw cointerra showed of their fpga a week ago, how long would it take to transform fpga to a working asic unit. I remembered seeing KNC having their fpga show off videos months ago, before accepting pre-orders, and til now they still have nothing.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
History is replete with companies promising x and either delivering either y or absolutely nothing; asicminer is one who's reputation from that standpoint is untarnished; instead they suffer for having historically charged extremely high prices per hash, compared to their competitors, with the flip side being that there has never been a question of whether they could provide what was purchased.

Cointerrra, yes, has an impressive resume behind it. But lots of other companies have wowed people right up until they suffered delays or worse.

Not to bash coin terra. They sure do appear legit. That said, I've more faith in AM's hypothetical hardware than Cointerra's. Though I also know that they'll charge an arm and a leg for it.
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
I'm trying to understand why ASICMINER is waiting to decide on the order size for Gen2... given the opportunity cost of not mining blocks and the, presumably, low cost of manufacturing the equipment... shouldn't the order size for Gen2 just be "as much as humanly possible given ASICMINER's budget"? What would the rationale for choosing a smaller order size be?

Probably because one order of the right size in the right moment is better than the alternatives they have. I'm with them if they want to wait and see the capabilities of the competition before deploying.

Playing "Wait and see" is a dangerous game if you are a mining hardware manufacturer.



the game has become very difficult.  look at the bit fury stick same power as an am stick  truly exists is not vaporware/  So if AM want to do sticks  what is the correct move?
 Build a 1gh stick and sell for .3btc?
Build a 2gh stick and sell for .6 btc?  
Make a clone of the bit fury 2.5gh and sell at .7btc?

Can Am do any of the above by nov 1st?

legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1018
Buzz App - Spin wheel, farm rewards
I don't think  waiting is necessarily a bad idea. There are many unknowns currently, friedcat could conceivably be waiting for the dust to settle.

While the last 2-3 months, and current times, are pretty crazy for the amount of ASICs coming out, and with ROI windows being broken by a few weeks worth of delays, it is conceivable to imagine that things will stabilize in a further 2 or 3 months, to a point where there a much smaller range of gh/$ mining equipment.

Maybe friedcat had something like these 3 options to choose from:

option1) spent a massive amount of capital to rush to market a gen 2 product that he might not be able to sell, depending on whether all of knc, cointerra, hashfast, etc etc etc all ship on time.

option2) spend another 2 months of development time to double the efficiency / hashes of his design, and some ASIC companies are out of the picture.

option3) spend another 4 months to make assure that his design, and amount of ordered chips, will be have a profitable gh/$ ratio in addition to knowing that his product will be one of the better options available on market.

Just saying, waiting is not a necessarily a bad strategy.  Asicminer has a large amount of resources and experience.  Say they sitting on 5 million dollars, just to make a figure up. Conceivably you could spend 5 million dollars in development costs 6 months from now and still have a product that is the most cost effective when reaching market, instead of 5 million 2 or 3 months ago, when your product may or may not be a complete wash.  

I don't even think Friedcat is waiting. Just saying, that there would be some merits to that. And total hashing output is important, but not as important as how much you are paying for your TH's and how fast you can scale, which is something he seems to be focusing on. It's possible that friedcat's 'gen 2' may be better one of the better than the early gen 2 products, and come out at just the right time for it to be the best option available to consumers. It's not an inconceivable scenario...and potentially better than rushing towards releasing product just as fast as they can. 
 
hero member
Activity: 761
Merit: 500
Mine Silent, Mine Deep
I'm trying to understand why ASICMINER is waiting to decide on the order size for Gen2... given the opportunity cost of not mining blocks and the, presumably, low cost of manufacturing the equipment... shouldn't the order size for Gen2 just be "as much as humanly possible given ASICMINER's budget"? What would the rationale for choosing a smaller order size be?

Probably because one order of the right size in the right moment is better than the alternatives they have. I'm with them if they want to wait and see the capabilities of the competition before deploying.

Playing "Wait and see" is a dangerous game if you are a mining hardware manufacturer.
full member
Activity: 167
Merit: 100
I'm trying to understand why ASICMINER is waiting to decide on the order size for Gen2... given the opportunity cost of not mining blocks and the, presumably, low cost of manufacturing the equipment... shouldn't the order size for Gen2 just be "as much as humanly possible given ASICMINER's budget"? What would the rationale for choosing a smaller order size be?

Probably because one order of the right size in the right moment is better than the alternatives they have. I'm with them if they want to wait and see the capabilities of the competition before deploying.

I guess it's hard for me to imagine the complexity of the decision space. It's like ASICMINER is in a drag-race... regardless of what the other competitors are doing, the safest strategy to win is to just go faster.

It is not at all obvious to me that somebody will win this race. It can happen that at some point mining will cease to be profitable. That is, you invest money into gear and when in half a year you have it in hand you realize that you will never make your investment back. But at that point there is no way back.

I feel that the point when this can happen might be very close. So it is not obvious that delaying the final decision is a bad strategy.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
I'm trying to understand why ASICMINER is waiting to decide on the order size for Gen2... given the opportunity cost of not mining blocks and the, presumably, low cost of manufacturing the equipment... shouldn't the order size for Gen2 just be "as much as humanly possible given ASICMINER's budget"? What would the rationale for choosing a smaller order size be?

Probably because one order of the right size in the right moment is better than the alternatives they have. I'm with them if they want to wait and see the capabilities of the competition before deploying.

I guess it's hard for me to imagine the complexity of the decision space. It's like ASICMINER is in a drag-race... regardless of what the other competitors are doing, the safest strategy to win is to just go faster.
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
I'm trying to understand why ASICMINER is waiting to decide on the order size for Gen2... given the opportunity cost of not mining blocks and the, presumably, low cost of manufacturing the equipment... shouldn't the order size for Gen2 just be "as much as humanly possible given ASICMINER's budget"? What would the rationale for choosing a smaller order size be?

Probably because one order of the right size in the right moment is better than the alternatives they have. I'm with them if they want to wait and see the capabilities of the competition before deploying.
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