ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 754.

SebastianJu

legendary

Activity: 2674

Merit: 1083

Legendary Escrow Service - Tip Jar in Profile

I think you forgot that friedcat is taking part of the div for further deployment like he stated.

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 09:20:37 AM

Quote from: runeks on August 26, 2013, 09:15:42 AM

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:46:29 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:40:11 AM

vela, I bet we'll see the 24h average being over 80TH/s during the next 48h.

How much are you willing to bet?

Also, guys, there is a speculation thread.

Anyway, we're very likely to have a low dividend again.

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

I'll take your bet.

But first I'd need to know how SmiGueL calculates the hashrate on that site.

I know how I do it on my site, and it's really simple: (2³² * ) / (3600*24 / )

Which currently is: (2³² * 65,750,060.1) / (3600*24 / 14) = 4.575834502×10¹³ = 45.76 TH/s

If we use the data from my site you're on! And of course my data is verifiable: If you can find more blocks than I claim, that have the "Mined By ASICMiner" signature in the coinbase you know I'm leaving some blocks out.

runeks: ok deal!

Zubilica

hero member

Activity: 837

Merit: 1000

Quote from: data on August 26, 2013, 11:01:35 AM

The market moves around so quickly, it is not even funny anymore. Just because of some small change in a mostly luck-based graph...

I just regret getting back in a tad above 3 last week with an old outstanding buy order. Would have bought with all free cash otherwise at 2.4-2.6... Well, I expect the prices to rise even more once normal (not kept-back) dividends are paid again

you still can till 3.6-3.9 is still cheap shares

data

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

The market moves around so quickly, it is not even funny anymore. Just because of some small change in a mostly luck-based graph...

I just regret getting back in a tad above 3 last week with an old outstanding buy order. Would have bought with all free cash otherwise at 2.4-2.6... Well, I expect the prices to rise even more once normal (not kept-back) dividends are paid again

runeks

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1008

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 09:20:37 AM

Quote from: runeks on August 26, 2013, 09:15:42 AM

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:46:29 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:40:11 AM

vela, I bet we'll see the 24h average being over 80TH/s during the next 48h.

How much are you willing to bet?

Also, guys, there is a speculation thread.

Anyway, we're very likely to have a low dividend again.

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

I'll take your bet.

But first I'd need to know how SmiGueL calculates the hashrate on that site.

I know how I do it on my site, and it's really simple: (2³² * ) / (3600*24 / )

Which currently is: (2³² * 65,750,060.1) / (3600*24 / 14) = 4.575834502×10¹³ = 45.76 TH/s

If we use the data from my site you're on! And of course my data is verifiable: If you can find more blocks than I claim, that have the "Mined By ASICMiner" signature in the coinbase you know I'm leaving some blocks out.

runeks: ok deal!

Cool! So the bet ends 17:00 (3:00 PM) Wednesday, August 28 (48 hours and two minutes from now).

deltanine

full member

Activity: 231

Merit: 100

Quote from: JimiQ84 on August 26, 2013, 07:30:34 AM

I think this - 1N8oFn2BgF5Rxysf5xDdgsAVmZ2cvzCKQo - is first franchise address

EDIT: although it looks like hardware selling address, but then I don't understand why proceeds go to main mining address

This may be a nexus address for franchisee coin. I see payments incoming from several different addresses.

It's been up since 6/30 so the time frame seems about right.

SmiGueL

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 252

Quote from: runeks on August 26, 2013, 09:15:42 AM

But first I'd need to know how SmiGueL calculates the hashrate on that site.

I know how I do it on my site, and it's really simple: (2³² * ) / (3600*24 / )

Which currently is: (2³² * 65,750,060.1) / (3600*24 / 14) = 4.575834502×10¹³ = 45.76 TH/s

If we use the data from my site you're on! And of course my data is verifiable: If you can find more blocks than I claim, that have the "Mined By ASICMiner" signature in the coinbase you know I'm leaving some blocks out.

45.76TH/s it is. (and was)

I'm pretty sure the calculation is the same. Tongue

But to verify it afterwards: If more than 24 blocks have been found in a timeframe of 24h, then the average hashrate is > 80 TH/s.

_{*With current difficulty, which I'm pretty sure of that it won't change in the next 48h.}

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: runeks on August 26, 2013, 09:15:42 AM

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:46:29 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:40:11 AM

vela, I bet we'll see the 24h average being over 80TH/s during the next 48h.

How much are you willing to bet?

Also, guys, there is a speculation thread.

Anyway, we're very likely to have a low dividend again.

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

I'll take your bet.

But first I'd need to know how SmiGueL calculates the hashrate on that site.

I know how I do it on my site, and it's really simple: (2³² * ) / (3600*24 / )

Which currently is: (2³² * 65,750,060.1) / (3600*24 / 14) = 4.575834502×10¹³ = 45.76 TH/s

If we use the data from my site you're on! And of course my data is verifiable: If you can find more blocks than I claim, that have the "Mined By ASICMiner" signature in the coinbase you know I'm leaving some blocks out.

runeks: ok deal!

runeks

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1008

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:46:29 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:40:11 AM

vela, I bet we'll see the 24h average being over 80TH/s during the next 48h.

How much are you willing to bet?

Also, guys, there is a speculation thread.

Anyway, we're very likely to have a low dividend again.

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

I'll take your bet.

But first I'd need to know how SmiGueL calculates the hashrate on that site.

I know how I do it on my site, and it's really simple: (2³² * ) / (3600*24 / )

Which currently is: (2³² * 65,750,060.1) / (3600*24 / 14) = 4.575834502×10¹³ = 45.76 TH/s

If we use the data from my site you're on! And of course my data is verifiable: If you can find more blocks than I claim, that have the "Mined By ASICMiner" signature in the coinbase you know I'm leaving some blocks out.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: velacreations on August 26, 2013, 09:03:52 AM

Why would you assume it is different this time?

Because an extension is needed to catch up with the diff. We know it will come, as time passes, the likelihood that they deploy it increases.

Quote from: velacreations on August 26, 2013, 09:03:52 AM

I hope AM increases its hash rate, too, but I think it's a mistake to assume it has increased before it actually has. That just creates disappointment based on false estimates.

Might be a mistake, but again, these are just assumptions.
Not sure about the disappointment, we're grown adults, nobody should based their investment decisions on few forum posts. (Writing this, I try to convince myself too, lol)

supert

full member

Activity: 160

Merit: 100

Quote from: Vycid on August 25, 2013, 10:44:24 PM

I eased off because I was starting to annoy rather than inform. Everyone had heard my arguments already.

Just un-ignored.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:57:55 AM

Because I don't believe in a glitch that would last several days and halve the hash rate as we have seen. I believe that some important work was done there. The time also fits perfectly a much needed extension to catch up with increasing difficulty, and with the arrival of the new blades in the last 2 weeks. So I just think (and hope!) that AM extended its hash rate. It's not because we got use to 60TH/s that they will never change that! Wink

Well, you know, last week, we saw the exact same thing. The hash rate went from 11-12% down to 4-6% for a few days, and then went back up to where we were before (or slightly higher) to 60 TH/s (even though the 6 hour rate said over 100 TH/s at one time).

FC came out and said they had a variety of problems, but they were addressing them. Right after that, we see another hash rate dip down to 3-4%.

Why would you assume it is different this time? I hope AM increases its hash rate, too, but I think it's a mistake to assume it has increased before it actually has. That just creates disappointment based on false estimates.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

vela, sure, I don't mean to be affirmative here. These are obviously just assumptions...
Let's see in the next 2 days!

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

This is from Aug 20, 2013. Notice the 6 hour estimate. Notice that after the 20th, we never exceeded 60 TH/s.

You can't base anything on the 6 hour estimate.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: velacreations on August 26, 2013, 08:53:51 AM

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:46:29 AM

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

why would you base anything on the 6 hour hash rate?

Even the 12 hour estimate is not up to the rate we hit last week.

Because I don't believe in a glitch that would last several days and halve the hash rate as we have seen. I believe that some important work was done there. The time also fits perfectly a much needed extension to catch up with increasing difficulty, and with the arrival of the new blades in the last 2 weeks. So I just think (and hope!) that AM extended its hash rate. It's not because we got use to 60TH/s that they will never change that! Wink

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:46:29 AM

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

why would you base anything on the 6 hour hash rate?

Even the 12 hour estimate is not up to the rate we hit last week.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: binaryFate on August 26, 2013, 08:40:11 AM

vela, I bet we'll see the 24h average being over 80TH/s during the next 48h.

How much are you willing to bet?

Also, guys, there is a speculation thread.

Anyway, we're very likely to have a low dividend again.

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

EDIT: 1/2h later, nobody took it... I withdraw my offer.
EDIT2: somebody just took it, didn't see that before. So the offer still holds.

cw92

member

Activity: 66

Merit: 10

Just to clarify I don't expect a meaningful increase in dividends, but I still think a drop below .01 is unlikely even with the difficulty increase.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: velacreations on August 26, 2013, 08:37:58 AM

2. I've seen the 6-12 hours hash rate estimate over 100 TH/s before. That doesn't mean the hash rate is increasing. Until we see 24+ estimates increasing, I think it's foolish to assume hash rate is increasing.

vela, I bet we'll see the 24h average being over 80TH/s during the next 48h.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: cw92 on August 26, 2013, 08:31:11 AM

So between any potential hardware divs from the batch of USB miners and a hashrate that has probably increased significantly you predict the dividend is going down >20%?

1. hash rate has been down all week, so don't expect any new revenue from that. We'll be lucky if we generate the same amount as last week. It's been around 4-6% since last week.

2. I've seen the 6-12 hours hash rate estimate over 100 TH/s before. That doesn't mean the hash rate is increasing. Until we see 24+ estimates increasing, I think it's foolish to assume hash rate is increasing.

3. I don't think we'll see a big increase in hardware sales. The new USBs are cute, but the prices haven't really changed (that I can see), so don't expect a flood of new sales. And even if that does happen, you won't see the money until next week.

tl;dr - dividends are going to be low again this week.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: cw92 on August 26, 2013, 08:31:11 AM

Quote from: bobboooiie on August 26, 2013, 08:21:35 AM

Quote from: wo0x on August 26, 2013, 08:14:13 AM

I believe in luck, but not in that much. Here is just some infrastructure back in business ...

It's more like the opportunity is gone to trade AM-shares at lower prices

lets see after we recieve next dividend under 0.01

So between any potential hardware divs from the batch of USB miners and a hashrate that has probably increased significantly you predict the dividend is going down >20%?

If hardware divs is retained for further investment... only mining part remains. The increase is recent, so a large part of the week will have been done with low hash rate. You can see an estimation here (bottom of the page):
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
Since it extrapolates the past hash rate, it will be higher than that (due to current increase), but it might be around 0.01, or like last week, 0.012.

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