Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 763. (Read 3917468 times)

What board members are willing to sell at.

I just bought at 2.55 but I suspect it'll go lower (just not willing to bet on it), probably bounce around 2.35 or so.  I don't have any analysis (although I did spend an afternoon writing a fetcher for BTCT trade data).  It was at that 2.5 level for a month, so I suspect it'll hold or bounce a little below there.  

What is the bottom price, any idea ?

Chain of bad luck or outage?

AM probably hasn't had any peaks over 90 TH/s. What we are looking at are estimates.

If you look at my site http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/ (which is the chart Smiguel uses on http://asicminercharts.com/, but for the entire period AM has been hashing), you can see that the 24-hour estimate varies considerably. This is not (in all likelihood) the AM hashrate going up and down continously. It's caused by having to guess a hashrate using only around 15 data points per 24 hours.

I'm just sitting here with my Coinbase account and trying to talk myself out of buying more.  I really don't think anything's changed.  We had a whale dumping, dividends being withheld for a good reason, the new leasing business is still in the works, we know that friedcat can manufacture and deploy massive THS, we trust him to try to do so. 

I'm just thinking 2.5 is a possibility and trying to decide what to do... I suspect EB or another whale is dumping, somebody who bought a lot at that last long-term price static point, 2.5.

We see 2.7 again. But this time it seems no one is excited by this low price again. Bad sign?

I believe that the current withholding of dividend payments is going to continue for a while and that also explains some of the selling. 

This is currently the biggest issue, IMO.  It shows there are issues being worked out with the mining operation.  Whatever those issues are, I hope they get it worked out soon, otherwise dividends will suffer again this week.

it's not 100TH so probably bitfury.

- Hash-share of AM has fallen massively.

- Too many firms chasing fewer coins that require far more effort and expense to mine.

- Hardware sales are falling since the value of these is directly linked to mining profitability which is falling. Most devices bought by consumers will never re-coup investment costs.

- No proven ability to generate significant transaction fees, since fee are still small and have not grown in a year.

I said all this when AM hit 5BTC, I sold and got mocked for talking it down, now it's back down to the 2.5-ish thats it's actually worth. AM have always done great stuff, but some people got carried away with the current dividends and drove the price too high.

is ghash.io the bitfury hardware test pool before delivering to customers ? or is it that 100TH project farm ? I'm confused.

Pretty much what everyone said above

The percentage of the network held by AM is lower than before due to difficulty spikes, some competition is here and more may be coming online soon.

Friedcat is producing more units resulting in lower dividends right now and for the last while causing the share price to decrease.
Furthermore an unknown amount of AM's units are being leased and we don't know how much of that is in the network, the market is waiting on generation two of AM miners and whatever capacity the possible competitors contribute to mining to determine the market value.

Measuring the factors:

Variable factors are in play whoever brings the largest scale to the market the quickest has the potential to take over some % of the network, but in the long run AM is in the best position to maintain its share with proven mining and increasing capacity based on their track record.

That said potential companies like Labcoin and Activemining BTCgarden and a few others (Avalon) are saying they will be releasing units soon.
It will take time yet for the competitors to prove themselves to produce at large scales before the true status quo changes, but it is an interesting time since the clock draws nearer. Even if they all produce a bit it could become a lot overall etc.

In the short run as in why it dropped so hard recently:

Eb had a bit of a panic thinking that there was bad news and possibly read some of the chat here, put up an auction for a lot of shares 3700+ at 2.7 and the market reeled before the auction was cancelled pretty fast seeing as there was a lot of pent up demand at that price, bringing AM down to a lower stable point for the last few days.

Think that was about it.

If that seemed bullish sorry not as bearish as others can be  


More data

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Took me long enough to put it all together but finally realized that Bitfury is the next Asicminer, not Lab or Active or Garden:

1. ASIC chips based on 55nm

2. Chips already shipping and miners shipping or soon to ship

3. Self mining at 78Th/s, blowing away AM's 48Th/s right now

Plus, as an added bonus, no pesky public shareholders who pester for more information or with whom to share dividends.

Is someone buying back in? 

+1. I think friedcat has a few tricks up his sleeve and I like the risk/reward much better around 3 than I did at 4.x.

After sticking with him for quite a while I just bet that he has a huge move planned...I can sense it coming.

Perhaps a second data center is being set up, perhaps something else...whatever the news is it will be something so huge that we will all be shocked.


You've got to remember the huge headstart, and the chip manufacturing advantage they have.

To think that they don't give a shit about the share price after the IPO is naive....I would say they suffer more than anyone when the price drops and the value of their nest egg is at risk.

There will be an uptick in AM once Gen2 is being deployed and sold. After that anything can happen. Mining is turning into an epic battle for a 0 sum endgame. Expect razor thin margins for the mining companies that survive. Personally I believe AM will be among them but the honeymoon is over.

Lots of weak hands getting out of AM due to the historically low dividends along with a lot of competition springing up. The future of AM is fuzzy. If the 2nd generation chips are competitive with the network then we might see AM spring back up to holding a significant portion of the network AND turn over a significant amount of hardware sales. That'd all be good for dividends and potentially secure AM's future until a '3rd' generation of chips hits the network.