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Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 767. (Read 3917468 times)

sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
If I'm not entirely mistaken, the 200 TH/s order was paid for in full already a long time ago (early June?). The fact that FC is withholding dividends to pay for something now must mean another order is on the way.

Since he spoke of reaching 800-1000 TH/s by the end of the year, I will speculate that part of these chips are already in production - which is definitely good news!

yeah, I think 200 TH/s on hand for deployment is more than enough to keep the 10% network percentage through the end of the year.  Of course, if you have more, you can sell and deploy more.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
Speculation aside, ASICMINER is still a high growth company that pays 10% plus yearly dividends, has a very sound income and is run by people that has time and again proven to be able to reach 80%+ margins on high value electronics while providing niche leading support.

sr. member
Activity: 362
Merit: 250
If I'm not entirely mistaken, the 200 TH/s order was paid for in full already a long time ago (early June?). The fact that FC is withholding dividends to pay for something now must mean another order is on the way.

Since he spoke of reaching 800-1000 TH/s by the end of the year, I will speculate that part of these chips are already in production - which is definitely good news!
full member
Activity: 160
Merit: 100
in an attempt to get us back on track...

The next gen chips will deploy in the late autumn according to friendlycat.

- will the competition from 28nm chips arrive before or after or ever?
- will the gen 2 chips compete?

(EDIT: thanks vela)
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
EDIT: to which I might add, a very successful troll. The thread has become about Vycid. Can we go back to discussing AM?

I'm with you on this one.  Let's talk about what sort of hash rate AM needs to be producing in Sep/Oct to stay ahead. I think an extra 200TH/s will easily maintain our network percentage through December.  I don't see the network being over 2 PT/s by the end of the year.

So, what does 200TH/s cost for AM to produce?
full member
Activity: 219
Merit: 100
ANYONE concerned with how much money the company is PAYING in dividends is not thinking properly.

The amount the company PAYS in dividends is irrelevant to the value of the company. The relevant values are how much the company EARNS, and how the company is run/reinvests in itself.

(Unless you don't trust Friedcat, in which case you should not be investing at all).

Earnings aren't much lower than normal. All of us should be hoping that Friedcat will reinvest the lion's share of the capital in getting to the better chips faster. Because that is how the company will thrive long term. Dividends are just a perk and a distraction for any serious long term investor.
full member
Activity: 160
Merit: 100
Why are you acting so rudely towards him? If you think his arguments are weak, refute them.
Calling him names only makes everyone else feel you're not comfortable in your position and perhaps don't really have an argument.

I actually AGREE with (some) of his arguments.

But his replies use language in a way a politician does -- to evoke a particular response, rather than to arrive at the truth through discourse.

That is trolling.



EDIT: to which I might add, a very successful troll. The thread has become about Vycid. Can we go back to discussing AM?
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
first it was that whales were about to dump.  Then we heard from one whale that talked with other whales, and it appears that at least some whales are holding and buying.  

Vycid still maintains that whales are about to dump, even though all evidence suggests the contrary. Did he post evidence to support his position?   I encourage Vycid to back up this argument with statements from whales that indicate they are about to dump.

Haven't we been hearing from Vycid that FC didn't have a plan for competition, that they weren't fixing the mining issues, and there was no new investment?  FC directly addressed a number of Vycid's arguments, and now, Vycid is saying that explanation is bad.  What's it going to take to satisfy this guy?

Well, you can't have it both ways, but for someone that only wants FUD, they'll see bad in anything. I mean, just a few pages ago, he was suggesting that FC was going to scam us, because he hadn't posted an update in a while.   Roll Eyes

The true sign of an fanatic is if despite changing information, they cannot change their stance.  So, I ask Vycid, what information would change your stance on AM (or even admit that you have been wrong on a number of things)?  If you say "nothing", then we have no more to discuss.
member
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So, now that I'm behind a real keyboard and things are calmed down a bit (yes, I was on my phone - all my posts today were made from a Galaxy S3. Samsung should put me in a commercial), I'm going to share my thoughts on the update. While the fact that FC hasn't gone incommunicado is definitely a positive sign for longs, I believe that the content of the message is markedly less bullish than the reaction implied.

Update

We have collected several shareholders' questions for answering.

Could we have an official live hashrate meter from ASICMINER?
We have an internal one, mainly for troubleshooting when some of the racks going down. The hashrate meter based on the blocks mined reflects more of the real speed (plus luck of course). We will buy more bandwidth before making it accessible by the whole internet. It also requires more commitment in maintenance.

For more transparency, is it possible to share a wallet address for depositing income from ASICMINER hardware sales?
We use a different deposit address for each payment transaction. But a centralized nexus address is good. Then people could see how the funds are separated as dividends and expenses.


This is a good thing. Any movement of AM toward transparency is positive, in my book, although longs should be aware that transparency can be a double-edged sword. If things are going well, it will get noticed. If they are going poorly, it will get noticed. It may end up increasing volatility.


Besides mining, hardware sales, and franchising, are there any other potential sources of revenue?
There are many possible ones considered, but none can support serious sound business model based on a 1-2billion dollar total market value of Bitcoin: selling patents, offering solution for mining farm construction, assembly service, etc.


I've talked before about AM and its refusal to grow beyond an ASIC company. Certainly the upsides of expanding their business with the BTC market in the 1-2B USD range are limited, but if BTC never grows beyond 1-2B USD then AM is in deep shit to start with (FC loves to talk about transaction fees to justify valuation). Their cashflow should allow them to explore and capitalize on new business prospects far better than a start-up. Why is AM so lacking in vision?


Why has the hashrate dropped the past weeks?
It dropped in different few days. Some of them are internal hardware/network glitches, some of them are luck based. We haven't identified any form of DDOS attacks recently though.


This is a bad sign. Sure, their hashrate hasn't decreased, but they're having trouble managing their hardware at 50 TH. On the bright side, they managed to maintain a stable hashrate for a pretty long period of time, so it's not something they're incapable of, but it's not the trend you want. Downtime was more expected and forgivable close to launch.


There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.
The ASICMiner expansion via franchising is still much within China border. The internationally deployed portion will dominate when the gain of operation cost outweigh the delay and cost of international shipping/assembling abroad.

I'm gonna address these two at once.

The internationally deployed portion will dominate when the gain of operation cost outweigh the delay and cost of international shipping/assembling abroad.

This means "we plan to play catch-up when other firms have finished localizing in the regions where electricity and rent are cheapest."

tl;dr - Friedcat is making all the right moves and has great vision, so please implement these crappy ideas so I can execute my put options.  Also here is my best attempt at negatively spinning the good news.
hero member
Activity: 817
Merit: 1000
Truth is a consensus among neurons www.synereo.com
Why are you acting so rudely towards him? If you think his arguments are weak, refute them.
Calling him names only makes everyone else feel you're not comfortable in your position and perhaps don't really have an argument.
newbie
Activity: 57
Merit: 0
Vycid, no one cares about your 'thoughts' or disillusions. ASICMINER does not need to expand outside of their core competencies to be incredibly successful and there isn't really any valid reason to with the BTC market cap so small. ASICMINER is the best in the business of BTC mining and hardware sales and is working on adding another revenue stream through franchising.

If you knew anything about business and start-ups, you'd know that the successful ones focus on what they're best at and continually work on improving that main aspect of their business. I'd much rather have AM focus on what they're best at and not start throwing money that would otherwise be paid as dividends into unproven business strategies/markets.
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
i love this vycid guy!
constructive criticism is the best!!!! its always good to see through anothers lens...

if only everyone was full of that!

would help keep the price of shares even lower,

this the true believers will be able to re-invest for lower prices, and continue investing for lower prices!!!!
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Exactly -- 0.35% of the outstanding shares in daily volume, and everything goes to shit. This market is propped up by the paper-thin support of irrational buyers.
You are not making any sense.  First you say there isn't any depth to the market, and then you say AM is overvalued because of that. 

No, you're wrong.

If all of the shares were on the exchange, and a movement of .35% of the shares crashed the price, then you might have a point.  But that's not the case.  At best, we're talking 6.5% of the shares are on the exchange.  So, a movement of .35% affects the value of ~7% of AM.

Listen, you can't take a sample of .35% of anything and claim it is an accurate sample of 100%.  It's just too small of a sample.

Quote
All this thing needs is a push. The whales know it. None of them want to be the one to destroy the market, but they want to be the last one out even less.
The same could be said for a rally.  It would take a few hundred btc to put the value of AM over 4.
member
Activity: 69
Merit: 10
Simply put, if Vycid didn't have a financial interest in AM getting cheaper, he wouldn't spend so much time knocking it down.

A few comments are one thing...but he's making a career out of it.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
Can you back up the "hundreds of TH a month" statement please? Bizarre they're operating 50 if so.

from what I hear it's pretty difficult to find high power density server rooms in China so the deployment is definitely not an easy task.

even in shenzhen?
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 3000
Terminated.
Too many trolls and useless walls of text..
hero member
Activity: 491
Merit: 500
Thanks a lot, Jutarul. I was too lazy to reply to so much bs.  Grin

One thing I would like to add regarding cash holdings: fc had clearly stated he would only deduct necessary expenses from the dividends as and when required and not hold cash. This has been discussed here over and over again.

Too bad we have to deal with so much ignorant fud here...  Undecided
donator
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
It seems you have a talent for misinterpretation. Maybe it's your bearish sentiment which leads you to some of those conclusions.

This is a good thing. Any movement of AM toward transparency is positive, in my book, although longs should be aware that transparency can be a double-edged sword. If things are going well, it will get noticed. If they are going poorly, it will get noticed. It may end up increasing volatility.
Words without meaning. What are you trying to say? If the sun shines today it may rain tomorrow?

I've talked before about AM and its refusal to grow beyond an ASIC company ... Their cashflow should allow them to explore and capitalize on new business prospects far better than a start-up. Why is AM so lacking in vision?
You seem to be fixed on the idea that ASICMINER should chase more than one rabbit. As stated elsewhere, it is not impossible, but it has to fit neatly into the strategy of the company - otherwise there is a disconnect and a loss of focus. Your critique is heard - and if new monetizing strategies come along I am certain friedcat will be eager to employ them.

Why has the hashrate dropped the past weeks?
It dropped in different few days. Some of them are internal hardware/network glitches,...
This is a bad sign. Sure, their hashrate hasn't decreased, but they're having trouble managing their hardware at 50 TH. On the bright side, they managed to maintain a stable hashrate for a pretty long period of time, so it's not something they're incapable of, but it's not the trend you want. Downtime was more expected and forgivable close to launch.
You seem to have no experience with reality. Downtimes due to unforeseen reasons happen in the most professional circles. Also we're not talking about a redundancy business here, but a capacity business. If all friedcat had to do is run 1 blade with a 5000 fold redundancy, I am sure we'd have 100% uptime, no trouble.

Quote
The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.

This is CEO-speak for "we didn't expect this, but we have a plan". Which is unsurprising, since there's still something like 500 TH of Avalon chips still due for delivery, god knows how many BFL units, 100TH/Bitfury firing up, et al. (One must wonder where AM would have been if Avalon and BFL had delivered on time.)
Again, you're not really saying much. Projections are bound to be off, that's why they are projections. In this case the deviation is  rather positive.

The reason I know it was unexpected is that FC is curtailing dividends to save up for more devices in Sept/Oct. If things were exactly as expected, competent leadership would have known the amount of money required in advance, and smoothed out that deduction over many dividends. Instead, FC decided to cut deeply into this dividend, and the next few (apparently).
Are you suggesting friedcat should increase the cash holdings of ASICMINER? Are you not satisfied with the strategy that payments are aggressively deducted from the most recent dividend? Does the volatility in dividends bother you for some reason?

So that's either a management failure, or AM recognizes they are in a tighter spot than they expected. Take your pick.
What exactly should the failure be? Pay as you go? Need I remind you - Most existing competitors are effectively financing the production through pre-orders. Probably only Avalon is now in a position to pay for a production run out of pocket from previous earnings.

Either way, I suspect that the market was operating on the assumption that AM had already the funds they needed for new devices, so these reduced dividends are a negative surprise. A correction is to be expected.
I doubt that investors are that naive. And it's irrelevant anyway - any dividend not payed goes into the cash pool of the company. Dividends not payed may interfere with timing your share purchases though - I understand that.

The internationally deployed portion will dominate when the gain of operation cost outweigh the delay and cost of international shipping/assembling abroad.
This means "we plan to play catch-up when other firms have finished localizing in the regions where electricity and rent are cheapest."
Now your logic is out of the window. The statement means that the opportunity costs between rapid local deployment and relocation have to be considered. When that incentive is strong enough, hashpower will go abroad. When it comes to bitcoin we still live in an "empty world", with a lot of relocation opportunities. It will take at least another few years until that changes. But I sympathize with your sentiment to push aggressively into international distribution.
full member
Activity: 151
Merit: 105
Thanks for the update, Vycid. You are such a troll. It's almost funny.

He's not even worth putting on ignore he's so full of his own hype, it's fun to watch him squirm Wink.  The entertainment value of a short who's trapped... begging for attention.  Hilarious... Grin Grin
full member
Activity: 177
Merit: 100
Thanks for the update, Vycid. You are such a troll. It's almost funny.
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