Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 888. (Read 3917468 times)

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 11:50:17 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 12:10:43 PM

I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.

It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.

The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.

Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.

are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively

My observations are pulled from my arse so there isn't a graph.

ftfy

lmao - hope no graphs fall out Wink

Looks like your value-add to the forum is crude humor...

chkgk

member

Activity: 63

Merit: 10

chiming in here: correlation != causality.
Sure, there is correlation between btc/usd and the AM share price. There also is correlation between dividends and share price and one might also see causality in these correlations, BUT with the lack of information about the company's financials, hardware, business plan etc we are extremely likely to miss variables that effect our dependent variable significantly. Thus all our estimates are biased anyway.
Just my two econometrics / time series bitcents.

ft73

hero member

Activity: 564

Merit: 508

Nonsense. AM share price has been going up for other reasons. Coincidence != cause+effect.

Ok. Your opinion. Coincidence.
Guess i'm lucky then.
As long as this makes me profitable i like it.

We'll see what happens when BTC starts again going up.

TsuyokuNaritai

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Quote from: themagicdrake on July 03, 2013, 11:40:00 AM

While the dividend was average, news came out shortly after about an increase in mining hash rates and ultra-fast sales of mining gear which meant a big increase for this week's dividend. The share price jumped due to speculation of the dividend, not the price of BTC.

Not really this week's dividend, it's more about bright future in the coming months. I won't be shocked if today's dividend isn't spectacular.

kokojie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1003

Quote from: madams on July 03, 2013, 11:36:05 AM

Is anyone else concerned about the declining BTC price which is now about $84 on MtGox?

It is about 15% lower than the price at last week's dividend payout which was around $100 per BTC.

If the dividend comes in at 0.025 BTC, the corresponding value would be about 0.02.

Thoughts?

I would think that the declining BTC value is built into the increasing price of AM shares by those investing.

That's non-sense, decreasing BTC value has the effect of slightly decreasing AM share value, but mostly it should stay uneffected by it. (decreasing BTC value means fixed cost in USD are higher, requiring more BTC to be converted to USD to pay the bills.)

empoweoqwj

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: ThickAsThieves on July 03, 2013, 12:07:03 PM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 11:50:17 AM

Quote from: ft73 on July 03, 2013, 12:07:49 PM

I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.

It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.

The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.

Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.

are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively

My observations are pulled from my arse so there isn't a graph.

ftfy

lmao - hope no graphs fall out Wink

empoweoqwj

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 11:50:17 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 12:08:27 PM

I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.

It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.

The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.

Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.

are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively

My observations are informal so there isn't a graph. Your comment actually supports my thoughts. While the dividend was average, news came out shortly after about an increase in mining hash rates and ultra-fast sales of mining gear which meant a big increase for this week's dividend. The share price jumped due to speculation of the dividend, not the price of BTC.

I think we got some inverse correlation lately.
ASICminer became some sort of "defensive" security.
Many other securities show the same.

Nonsense. AM share price has been going up for other reasons. Coincidence != cause+effect.

madams

newbie

Activity: 25

Merit: 0

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 11:50:17 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 12:06:35 PM

I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.

It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.

The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.

Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.

are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively

My observations are informal so there isn't a graph. Your comment actually supports my thoughts. While the dividend was average, news came out shortly after about an increase in mining hash rates and ultra-fast sales of mining gear which meant a big increase for this week's dividend. The share price jumped due to speculation of the dividend, not the price of BTC.

Of course the share price of AM is related to the performance of AM as company. You aren't writing anything new here. We all know this.

And the value of the company is based on the value of BTC, which is not being reflected in the price of AM. That is my point.

ft73

hero member

Activity: 564

Merit: 508

Don't worry, you haven't sold anything.

Very true, i'm actually buying.

empoweoqwj

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 11:50:17 AM

I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.

It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.

The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.

Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.

are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively

My observations are informal so there isn't a graph. Your comment actually supports my thoughts. While the dividend was average, news came out shortly after about an increase in mining hash rates and ultra-fast sales of mining gear which meant a big increase for this week's dividend. The share price jumped due to speculation of the dividend, not the price of BTC.

Of course the share price of AM is related to the performance of AM as company. You aren't writing anything new here. We all know this.

ft73

hero member

Activity: 564

Merit: 508

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 11:50:17 AM

I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.

It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.

The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.

Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.

are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively

My observations are informal so there isn't a graph. Your comment actually supports my thoughts. While the dividend was average, news came out shortly after about an increase in mining hash rates and ultra-fast sales of mining gear which meant a big increase for this week's dividend. The share price jumped due to speculation of the dividend, not the price of BTC.

I think we got some inverse correlation lately.
ASICminer became some sort of "defensive" security.
Many other securities show the same.

ThickAsThieves

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 11:50:17 AM

Quote from: ft73 on July 03, 2013, 12:00:40 PM

I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.

It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.

The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.

Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.

are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively

My observations are pulled from my arse so there isn't a graph.

ftfy

empoweoqwj

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 11:59:02 AM

Quote from: ft73 on July 03, 2013, 11:53:26 AM

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on July 03, 2013, 11:50:47 AM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on July 03, 2013, 11:44:53 AM

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 11:50:17 AM

Thankfully ASICMINER's price and dividends are keeping me level.

I would say price.
Dividends are not that great, some other securities may deliver about 10x.

May? Which ones do now? 260% APR? I'll jump on that.

There's at least one doing 0,5% per day as of now.

EDIT: reasonably ASICMiner will give about 0,5% per week.

They tend to be ones where the dividends go down quickly with time though. It's not really APR.

Exactly, so order timing is important.
Usually dividends go down, but share prices follow.
I don't want to be responsible for anybody losses, so i'll just give you a hint: head up to btct.co and look into funds Wink

Beware: know what are you doing!

EDIT: doing math i think i know a fund likely to deliver about an average 2% per-day dividend within the next few days ... nice Grin

I think you know nothing

i respect your opinion.
I gave a hint, anybody should be able to do some evaluation. Take your time and check it.
Now i don't want to further derail this thread, nor i want to sell any idea.

Don't worry, you haven't sold anything.

madams

newbie

Activity: 25

Merit: 0

Quote from: empoweoqwj on July 03, 2013, 11:59:02 AM

I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.

It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.

The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.

Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.

are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively

My observations are informal so there isn't a graph. Your comment actually supports my thoughts. While the dividend was average, news came out shortly after about an increase in mining hash rates and ultra-fast sales of mining gear which meant a big increase for this week's dividend. The share price jumped due to speculation of the dividend, not the price of BTC.

ft73

hero member

Activity: 564

Merit: 508

Quote from: ft73 on July 03, 2013, 11:53:26 AM

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on July 03, 2013, 11:50:47 AM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on July 03, 2013, 11:44:53 AM

Quote from: ft73 on July 03, 2013, 11:53:26 AM

Thankfully ASICMINER's price and dividends are keeping me level.

I would say price.
Dividends are not that great, some other securities may deliver about 10x.

May? Which ones do now? 260% APR? I'll jump on that.

There's at least one doing 0,5% per day as of now.

EDIT: reasonably ASICMiner will give about 0,5% per week.

They tend to be ones where the dividends go down quickly with time though. It's not really APR.

Exactly, so order timing is important.
Usually dividends go down, but share prices follow.
I don't want to be responsible for anybody losses, so i'll just give you a hint: head up to btct.co and look into funds Wink

Beware: know what are you doing!

EDIT: doing math i think i know a fund likely to deliver about an average 2% per-day dividend within the next few days ... nice Grin

I think you know nothing

i respect your opinion.
I gave a hint, anybody should be able to do some evaluation. Take your time and check it.
Now i don't want to further derail this thread, nor i want to sell any idea.

empoweoqwj

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on July 03, 2013, 11:50:47 AM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on July 03, 2013, 11:44:53 AM

Quote from: dragony on July 03, 2013, 11:49:13 AM

Thankfully ASICMINER's price and dividends are keeping me level.

I would say price.
Dividends are not that great, some other securities may deliver about 10x.

May? Which ones do now? 260% APR? I'll jump on that.

There's at least one doing 0,5% per day as of now.

EDIT: reasonably ASICMiner will give about 0,5% per week.

They tend to be ones where the dividends go down quickly with time though. It's not really APR.

Exactly, so order timing is important.
Usually dividends go down, but share prices follow.
I don't want to be responsible for anybody losses, so i'll just give you a hint: head up to btct.co and look into funds Wink

Beware: know what are you doing!

EDIT: doing math i think i know a fund likely to deliver about an average 2% per-day dividend within the next few days ... nice Grin

I think you know nothing

ft73

hero member

Activity: 564

Merit: 508

Quote from: ?? on ??

And which one is it?

M4D0FF.ETF

not the one i thought.

ThickAsThieves

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on July 03, 2013, 11:50:47 AM

I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.

It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.

The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.

Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.

This is nonsense. How can you say there is no correlation because dividends?

BTC has been slowly falling to USD. AM has been rising in kind. This leads to at least signs of correlation. But you'd need to do a deeper analysis to show they are directly correlated.

My bet is they are. If BTC/USD rose to $130, you'd see a lot more AM being sold.

ft73

hero member

Activity: 564

Merit: 508

Quote from: Eric Muyser on July 03, 2013, 11:44:53 AM