Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 885. (Read 3917468 times)
BTC/USD and profitability are interrelated but the extent on share price requires observation
Everytime BTC/USD price suddenly big decrease that will causing panic sell of AM....normally share price will be back in later ,if you got free coin now, you should take this opportunity.
Exchange rate dump from 90 to 76 for past several hours and now is around 80...this pretty scary....When will we killed this damn volatility.....I ask myself...
Exchange rate dump from 90 to 76 for past several hours and now is around 80...this pretty scary....When will we killed this damn volatility.....I ask myself...
I guess we can throw out the whole "AM as a hedge to BTC/USD" theory, as well. AM certainly had a bad day today, with BTC crash and shares going down at the same time.
Like I was told 2 weeks ago, AM is still the same company, has the same plans, is still mining very well, and has great potential, regardless if you thought the dividend might be higher this week. If you believe that, then now is a great price to buy.
BTC/USD had been sometime major issue for people become panic.
Everytime BTC/USD price suddenly big decrease that will causing panic sell of AM....normally share price will be back in later ,if you got free coin now, you should take this opportunity.
Exchange rate dump from 90 to 76 for past several hours and now is around 80...this pretty scary....When will we killed this damn volatility.....I ask myself...
Exchange rate dump from 90 to 76 for past several hours and now is around 80...this pretty scary....When will we killed this damn volatility.....I ask myself...
I guess we can throw out the whole "AM as a hedge to BTC/USD" theory, as well. AM certainly had a bad day today, with BTC crash and shares going down at the same time.
Like I was told 2 weeks ago, AM is still the same company, has the same plans, is still mining very well, and has great potential, regardless if you thought the dividend might be higher this week. If you believe that, then now is a great price to buy.
I'm not bearish. I'm don't fucking move this could go either way-ish until we get news or sales. Read the following quote. You say you expect 5 btc and 0.03. We got 0.022. You say "30% is appropriate rate." We're at 4.5, which is what I also say in the quote, which is 30%. Since then I've been adding word of caution we needed 0.025, which we fell short of the same amount we're up since last week. Read my posts, I haven't been pushing it, and said it should hold back, because even though I thought 0.03-0.04 was a possibility, it could be anything. Why are you pushing 5? Your own calculation doesn't allow for it. Heck, your own calculations below put it at 3.6 BTC. Sigh, when'd you get so bubbly? It's not even justified reasoning, it's just "friedcat will post! it'll go back! buy now!" with some basically outright lie that the last was 4.9 when that was just the ask.
I am not pushing anything, I am stating the fact that the last dividend was ~.019, yet we went to 5.1. So, the 30% APR does not hold on a week by week basis.
And was the rise to 5.1 because you expected a .03 dividend or because there was a lot of great AM news? So, you tell me, if the good news continues, will people buy or sell? I can only expect that FC has good news for us.
Yes, I think with a weekly dividend of .03, 5 btc is a fair price. Remember how when the share value dropped considerably 2 weeks ago, everyone was saying "look at the average dividend value"? That is exactly what I am talking about, here.
But, even then, I said that if dividend decreases, share price will follow. We did not have a dividend drop this week, and I firmly believe share price will rebound.
Average for the last month has been .024 /week (very little hardware sales). For the last 4 months, .0275/week. @ 30% APR, that puts us firmly in the 4.75 range. And that is not considering hardware sales, mostly mining. When you consider the dividends of hardware sales and mining, it is clear that .03 is a stable dividend value.
So, yes, if and when FC gives us an update on when Blades will start selling again, the price will jump. why? because the dividends will be higher. And if you look at the average dividends that include hardware sales, it is firmly in the .03 range.
Anyway, it is what it is. Sure, you can say "I'm right, look at it, the price is down", but a few hours ago, the trend was the opposite. And tomorrow? who knows, but if we get news, the price will jump.
Just one new news from friedcat everything will go up again.
this week's dividend was 27% higher than last week. I don't know who actually expected a .035 dividend, most of us (including me) have been saying .025. Now, we certainly didn't rule it out going higher, but it's not like it was a disappointment.
Still last week's dividend was .018, this week is .023. We went to 5.1 knowing the dividend had been .018. The 120d average is still a ways above 30% APR.
We will see what happens, but I think it is quite clear that settling at 4.6 is a bit low, especially with 4.8 on the exchange right now.
I find it funny that you are bearish, now, using the same arguments I was when the dividend dropped 2 weeks ago. It's funny how things change...
Still last week's dividend was .018, this week is .023. We went to 5.1 knowing the dividend had been .018. The 120d average is still a ways above 30% APR.
We will see what happens, but I think it is quite clear that settling at 4.6 is a bit low, especially with 4.8 on the exchange right now.
I find it funny that you are bearish, now, using the same arguments I was when the dividend dropped 2 weeks ago. It's funny how things change...
I'm not bearish. I'm don't fucking move this could go either way-ish until we get news or sales. Read the following quote. You say you expect 5 btc and 0.03. We got 0.022. You say "30% is appropriate rate." We're at 4.5, which is what I also say in the quote, which is 30%. Since then I've been adding word of caution we needed 0.025, which we fell short of the same amount we're up since last week. Read my posts, I haven't been pushing it, and said it should hold back, because even though I thought 0.03-0.04 was a possibility, it could be anything. Why are you pushing 5? Your own calculation doesn't allow for it. Heck, your own calculations below put it at 3.6 BTC. Sigh, when'd you get so bubbly? It's not even justified reasoning, it's just "friedcat will post! it'll go back! buy now!" with some basically outright lie that the last was 4.9 when that was just the ask.
I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.
that depends a lot on the dividends. If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably. Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.
At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc
I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.
By the way take a look at where we are. 4.4 - 4.6. Well, actually someone just sold into them while I was typing this and we're at 4.25 now.
Everytime BTC/USD price suddenly big decrease that will causing panic sell of AM....normally share price will be back in later ,if you got free coin now, you should take this opportunity.
Exchange rate dump from 90 to 76 for past several hours and now is around 80...this pretty scary....When will we killed this damn volatility.....I ask myself...
Are they already selling block erupter blades?
No, USB Erupters.
this week's dividend was 27% higher than last week. I don't know who actually expected a .035 dividend, most of us (including me) have been saying .025. Now, we certainly didn't rule it out going higher, but it's not like it was a disappointment.
Still last week's dividend was .018, this week is .023. We went to 5.1 knowing the dividend had been .018. The 120d average is still a ways above 30% APR.
We will see what happens, but I think it is quite clear that settling at 4.6 is a bit low, especially with 4.8 on the exchange right now.
I find it funny that you are bearish, now, using the same arguments I was when the dividend dropped 2 weeks ago. It's funny how things change...
Still last week's dividend was .018, this week is .023. We went to 5.1 knowing the dividend had been .018. The 120d average is still a ways above 30% APR.
We will see what happens, but I think it is quite clear that settling at 4.6 is a bit low, especially with 4.8 on the exchange right now.
I find it funny that you are bearish, now, using the same arguments I was when the dividend dropped 2 weeks ago. It's funny how things change...
I'm not bearish. I'm don't fucking move this could go either way-ish until we get news or sales. Read the following quote. You say you expect 5 btc and 0.03. We got 0.022. You say "30% is appropriate rate." We're at 4.5, which is what I also say in the quote, which is 30%. Since then I've been adding word of caution we needed 0.025, which we fell short of the same amount we're up since last week. Read my posts, I haven't been pushing it, and said it should hold back, because even though I thought 0.03-0.04 was a possibility, it could be anything. Why are you pushing 5? Your own calculation doesn't allow for it. Heck, your own calculations below put it at 3.6 BTC. Sigh, when'd you get so bubbly? It's not even justified reasoning, it's just "friedcat will post! it'll go back! buy now!" with some basically outright lie that the last was 4.9 when that was just the ask.
I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.
that depends a lot on the dividends. If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably. Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.
At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc
I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.
By the way take a look at where we are. 4.4 - 4.6. Well, actually someone just sold into them while I was typing this and we're at 4.25 now.
Are they already selling block erupter blades?
So... I got another div from friedcat! http://blockchain.info/tx/e139fe3523379df036871317b9515f9c8e8a1798e929c99fe7db4709562bcf5c
Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET
Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET
You sure that wasn't from Jutarul?
Yeah, I got mine from Jutarul for those shares...
So... I got another div from friedcat! http://blockchain.info/tx/e139fe3523379df036871317b9515f9c8e8a1798e929c99fe7db4709562bcf5c
Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET
Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET
You sure that wasn't from Jutarul?
So... I got another div from friedcat! http://blockchain.info/tx/e139fe3523379df036871317b9515f9c8e8a1798e929c99fe7db4709562bcf5c
Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET
Looks like he did the share transfers for the 1,000 auction and then paid divs for them... SWEET
This is simple people:
Asicminer shares are bought and sold the day of the dividend. This causes people to chase the highest bid as soon as they receive their dividends. All they want is the dividends. They buy shares up to whatever price they can afford them up to dividend day. Because these dividends were weaker than their unfounded dreams and dreamers had informed them, they immediately lost interest. Of course, that's a very narrow way to look at an investment. Over time, if/when people discover this is something that is better to hold than to trade (which is achieved by the company providing consistent performance), then there will be a more higher more stable share price when that logic finally occurs to the average cheapo who invested in ASICM this week.
Asicminer shares are bought and sold the day of the dividend. This causes people to chase the highest bid as soon as they receive their dividends. All they want is the dividends. They buy shares up to whatever price they can afford them up to dividend day. Because these dividends were weaker than their unfounded dreams and dreamers had informed them, they immediately lost interest. Of course, that's a very narrow way to look at an investment. Over time, if/when people discover this is something that is better to hold than to trade (which is achieved by the company providing consistent performance), then there will be a more higher more stable share price when that logic finally occurs to the average cheapo who invested in ASICM this week.
If anyone is need of direct ASICMINER shares I still have some left for sale.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/fixed-auction-direct-asicminer-shares-48share-248612
friedcat has already confirmed and I'm looking to sell them soon to order a gift.
The earliest bidders has dropped out since the price droped below 4.8BTC. I will accept current market price offers good for 3 hours once we have agreed on a price. Currently asking ~4.65BTC/share
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/fixed-auction-direct-asicminer-shares-48share-248612
friedcat has already confirmed and I'm looking to sell them soon to order a gift.
The earliest bidders has dropped out since the price droped below 4.8BTC. I will accept current market price offers good for 3 hours once we have agreed on a price. Currently asking ~4.65BTC/share
I'll be back in Vancouver in a week, ya boys 
Where are you KarmaShark?
Where are you KarmaShark?Waterloo, ON, right down the road from BlackBerry HQ.
Are you over in Japan on work? I want to go back sometime soon, what a blast. Definitely feeling the AM Canuck meet-up, we are amazingly well represented here gentlemen.
Nah, no way we're going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while. Awaiting blade sales.
the reasoning behind your target of 4.6 doesn't really hold. Dividend as considerably lower last week, yet we went all the way to 5.1.
People were expecting an epic dividend. 0.0035 is "considerably lower"? This week and last week are nearly the same. We went to 5.1 because we didn't know what it would be and it was hyped as being epic. I tried to warn caution that at 5 BTC we should be getting a 0.03 dividend or it's unlikely to stick.
Still last week's dividend was .018, this week is .023. We went to 5.1 knowing the dividend had been .018. The 120d average is still a ways above 30% APR.
We will see what happens, but I think it is quite clear that settling at 4.6 is a bit low, especially with 4.8 on the exchange right now.
I find it funny that you are bearish, now, using the same arguments I was when the dividend dropped 2 weeks ago. It's funny how things change...
In case you needed any more reasons to stock up on ASICMiner shares, here's the Butterfly Labs Mini Rig review.
Actually the crash happened exactly after the moment a big dump on Gox happened, so I'm not sure if dividends are to blame for that.
That surely didn't help. Could be both. Amazing dividend would be an incentive not to react to Gox crashing.
Actually the crash happened exactly after the moment a big dump on Gox happened, so I'm not sure if dividends are to blame for that.
Well the true-wall is somewhere between 2.5 and here 
Anyways wonder if tomorrow is Friedcat day
Anyways wonder if tomorrow is Friedcat day
Jump to: