ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 90.

bones

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Quote from: Chris_Sabian on February 02, 2015, 12:18:53 PM

Quote from: sngwinner on February 02, 2015, 10:52:20 AM

If the chips perform as expected and they replace the AMHash operation with gen 4 then they will have 20phs of cloud mining to sell or self mine with. That's without expanding capacity which they should be able to do. 20 phs might be about 6% of the network which over its useful life should probably mine close to 0.09 btc per share before electricity costs. Am will likely sell chips and also expand self mining r selling hashes through cloud mining. I'm thinking we will have dividends in excess of .25 btc per share this year after chips are deployed but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial. Hasn't stopped me from pick up more at a good price.

I would love for someone to tell me I'm wrong so I can just give up on AM and hold BTC for the long haul.

Disclaimer: I own AM shares.

The current block number is ~341,660 and the next halving takes place at block 480,000 (sometime in late summer / early fall 2016). So there are ~138,000 blocks to go or about 3,500,000 bitcoins left.

In order to have 0.25 btc / share, AM with 400,000 share would need to mine 100,000 after hardware costs, electricity, maintenance, salary, rent, etc. These costs are highly variable. Lets say they are making 25% 'profit' (only AM knows this number, this may be way too high, but let's go with it for this calculation). This means that AM needs to mine 400,000 bitcoins out of the next 3,500,000. Put it another way, AM needs to have ~11% of network hashrate until the next halving (18 months or so).

This is just a quick calculation based on some highly variable numbers. Is this possible? I have no idea. I just did a quick calculation based on your post.

Would that calculation not be for AM to pay out .25 btc a share?
That is entirely different to being worth IMO, you have future worth to factor in.
If stocks can pay out even 25% interest they will probably shoot up in price, and be considered a great investment.

arnuschky

hero member

Activity: 518

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I take a look into this thread once or twice a week as I still have a stake in AM.
Every time, I am amazed how much there is to talk about even though there
is absolutely nothing to talk about. Wink

tsm13

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this all boils down to who gets their gear plugged in first, we wont know this until its happened. You can keep an eye on the hash rate charts though

hdbuck

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: superduh on February 03, 2015, 02:06:25 PM

i'm not an pro analyst by any means and i think mr fried cat already knows what's up
but, i'll throw this out there anyway.
Between bitfury and knc they both have funding upwards of 100 million, their own data centers, immersion cooling and are branching out into other territories.

With the halving coming up in a year, AsicMiner has no time to lose, or they will lose.
their capitalization is not by any means top any longer. doubt they have their own efficient data center.
my best advice is for friedcat to sell some of the bitfountain's equity ASAP and grow like crazy this year. this will be the make it or break it year. perhaps outside investors/advisers would be highly beneficial to him. wish him the best but he needs to take this shit extremely seriously since there literally is no room for error.

Something to consider there, the crypto hardware industry isn't only units to hash sha256, there's the alts, hardware wallets, atm's, lots of other areas and they're growing all the time. AM was the first to announce plans to produce immersive cooled hardware and they didn't get much of a market to themselves with it, personally I think the whole idea of IP and trade secrets is BS but if they're going to branch out into new markets they'd probably not say a whole lot about it beforehand this time around.

if only their last two gens wouldnt have failed.. its not about secrets, the technology is the same for everyone.

its about design and freakin time to market.

gogxmagog

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Ad maiora!

Quote from: superduh on February 03, 2015, 02:06:25 PM

i'm not an pro analyst by any means and i think mr fried cat already knows what's up
but, i'll throw this out there anyway.
Between bitfury and knc they both have funding upwards of 100 million, their own data centers, immersion cooling and are branching out into other territories.

With the halving coming up in a year, AsicMiner has no time to lose, or they will lose.
their capitalization is not by any means top any longer. doubt they have their own efficient data center.
my best advice is for friedcat to sell some of the bitfountain's equity ASAP and grow like crazy this year. this will be the make it or break it year. perhaps outside investors/advisers would be highly beneficial to him. wish him the best but he needs to take this shit extremely seriously since there literally is no room for error.

If AM would issue some divs for a few weeks, Bitfountain would get a TON more btc for their shares. just sayin~

Dexter770221

legendary

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I think bitfury have troubles too. They said that in Q4 2014 they will have ~0.2W/GH chip. Then why punin that works very close with bitfury closes farm (with low electricity rate and high capacity) instead fiil it with new 5 times efficient hardware?

Mabsark

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Quote from: sngwinner on February 03, 2015, 08:21:00 AM

So KNC taped out 16nm. Will they beat AM to production? They got $15M in funding so I'm guessing the batch they churn out is going to be massive.

You're not taking into account the cost of a 16nm mask. That's going to be considerably more expensive as are the wafers themselves. Look at KnC's 20nm offering, it was way overpriced and less efficient than some 28nm offerings. I reckon their 16nm offering will also be an overpriced stinker.

I'm more concerned about BitFury's and Spondoolies' next gen chips than KnC's.

Also, TSMC has been having problems with 16nm and its been delayed by 3-6 months.

superduh

hero member

Activity: 602

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i'm not an pro analyst by any means and i think mr fried cat already knows what's up
but, i'll throw this out there anyway.
Between bitfury and knc they both have funding upwards of 100 million, their own data centers, immersion cooling and are branching out into other territories.

With the halving coming up in a year, AsicMiner has no time to lose, or they will lose.
their capitalization is not by any means top any longer. doubt they have their own efficient data center.
my best advice is for friedcat to sell some of the bitfountain's equity ASAP and grow like crazy this year. this will be the make it or break it year. perhaps outside investors/advisers would be highly beneficial to him. wish him the best but he needs to take this shit extremely seriously since there literally is no room for error.

sngwinner

full member

Activity: 432

Merit: 100

So KNC taped out 16nm. Will they beat AM to production? They got $15M in funding so I'm guessing the batch they churn out is going to be massive.

HarmonLi

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Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Honest 80s business!

Quote from: sngwinner on February 02, 2015, 12:12:09 PM

Quote from: ujka on February 02, 2015, 11:54:07 AM

Quote from: sngwinner on February 02, 2015, 10:52:20 AM

...
but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial.

Maybe you're missing the costs to produce 20PH of mining hardware?

AM has been retaining all earnings and according to FriedCat has enough BTC for "a long time". I think it's safe to assume they have $, yuan, or btc on hand to fund chip production.

They're careful not to give away the income as dividends right away. They're retaining as much as they need to and will most likely start giving out income as dividends, as soon as the income is stable, sustainable and there's still enough BTC to fund future operations and development.

Chris_Sabian

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Quote from: sngwinner on February 02, 2015, 10:52:20 AM

If the chips perform as expected and they replace the AMHash operation with gen 4 then they will have 20phs of cloud mining to sell or self mine with. That's without expanding capacity which they should be able to do. 20 phs might be about 6% of the network which over its useful life should probably mine close to 0.09 btc per share before electricity costs. Am will likely sell chips and also expand self mining r selling hashes through cloud mining. I'm thinking we will have dividends in excess of .25 btc per share this year after chips are deployed but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial. Hasn't stopped me from pick up more at a good price.

I would love for someone to tell me I'm wrong so I can just give up on AM and hold BTC for the long haul.

Disclaimer: I own AM shares.

The current block number is ~341,660 and the next halving takes place at block 480,000 (sometime in late summer / early fall 2016). So there are ~138,000 blocks to go or about 3,500,000 bitcoins left.

In order to have 0.25 btc / share, AM with 400,000 share would need to mine 100,000 after hardware costs, electricity, maintenance, salary, rent, etc. These costs are highly variable. Lets say they are making 25% 'profit' (only AM knows this number, this may be way too high, but let's go with it for this calculation). This means that AM needs to mine 400,000 bitcoins out of the next 3,500,000. Put it another way, AM needs to have ~11% of network hashrate until the next halving (18 months or so).

This is just a quick calculation based on some highly variable numbers. Is this possible? I have no idea. I just did a quick calculation based on your post.

sngwinner

full member

Activity: 432

Merit: 100

Quote from: ujka on February 02, 2015, 11:54:07 AM

Quote from: sngwinner on February 02, 2015, 10:52:20 AM

...
but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial.

Maybe you're missing the costs to produce 20PH of mining hardware?

AM has been retaining all earnings and according to FriedCat has enough BTC for "a long time". I think it's safe to assume they have $, yuan, or btc on hand to fund chip production.

HarmonLi

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Honest 80s business!

Quote from: ?? on ??

And how many refunded?

feedback on the Prisma 2.0 should be coming soon. Assuming it is good, even with minimal sales it will hopefully set an example and a benchmark for next generation products. The memory of the Prisma 1.0
should be sufficient example of what NOT to let out the door.

~~May~~ ~~July~~ ~~August~~ ~~December~~ March? Dividends could still be a reality, but we likely won't know of it until it is done. Too many misses makes one shy to announce anything. I get that. I can continue waiting.

Yeah I think it's very important for AM to was their reputation off the Prisma 1 failures. If the new generation (which looks really durable and robust) can perform as expected and live up to the promises, AM will be able to sell more miners when the BE300 is ready!

ujka

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Quote from: sngwinner on February 02, 2015, 10:52:20 AM

...
but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial.

Maybe you're missing the costs to produce 20PH of mining hardware?

sngwinner

full member

Activity: 432

Merit: 100

If the chips perform as expected and they replace the AMHash operation with gen 4 then they will have 20phs of cloud mining to sell or self mine with. That's without expanding capacity which they should be able to do. 20 phs might be about 6% of the network which over its useful life should probably mine close to 0.09 btc per share before electricity costs. Am will likely sell chips and also expand self mining r selling hashes through cloud mining. I'm thinking we will have dividends in excess of .25 btc per share this year after chips are deployed but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial. Hasn't stopped me from pick up more at a good price.

I would love for someone to tell me I'm wrong so I can just give up on AM and hold BTC for the long haul.

newIndia

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Activity: 2226

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: gogxmagog on January 31, 2015, 10:05:29 PM

no no no no no
now everybody is confused, except mabsark jdany and jimmothy.
see how i didnt include myself in that list of "not confused"?
all i want to know, (well, not ALL) is...
shouldnt AM be worth a little more?
is it hit the ceiling at 0.25?
or are we already over-valued?
sorry to make everybody emboldened enough to speak their mind n all, but srsly guise.
I'm not only losing my shirt over here, but my hair is falling out and my dog keeps looking at me like he's gonna run away soon as I open the door.
throw me some truths

No way of knowing, bitcoin is swimming in good news yet still going down and mining requirements are based on that so even if AM is at the cutting edge the size of the market is unpredictable.

Folks should really be asking themselves why bitcoin is dropping, $100 showed every sign of being sustainable yet way more than double the adoption, transaction volume, etc. is floating like a brick. Imho exchanges are trading fake coins, trading is done off the blockchain and even the reserves cant be verified for the vast majority of coins, that's a throwback from the Gox way of doing things and a lot of temptation for exchange operators. If it keeps going down so will the demand for mining hardware.

Inflated IOUs pushed by the exchanges to show high volume are creating the price drop problem.

Swordsoffreedom

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: gogxmagog on January 31, 2015, 10:05:29 PM

no no no no no
now everybody is confused, except mabsark jdany and jimmothy.
see how i didnt include myself in that list of "not confused"?
all i want to know, (well, not ALL) is...
shouldnt AM be worth a little more?
is it hit the ceiling at 0.25?
or are we already over-valued?
sorry to make everybody emboldened enough to speak their mind n all, but srsly guise.
I'm not only losing my shirt over here, but my hair is falling out and my dog keeps looking at me like he's gonna run away soon as I open the door.
throw me some truths

No way of knowing, bitcoin is swimming in good news yet still going down and mining requirements are based on that so even if AM is at the cutting edge the size of the market is unpredictable.

Folks should really be asking themselves why bitcoin is dropping, $100 showed every sign of being sustainable yet way more than double the adoption, transaction volume, etc. is floating like a brick. Imho exchanges are trading fake coins, trading is done off the blockchain and even the reserves cant be verified for the vast majority of coins, that's a throwback from the Gox way of doing things and a lot of temptation for exchange operators. If it keeps going down so will the demand for mining hardware.

The only thing is downright pessimism because the price keeps dropping, that or people are really afraid to lose their money since they have to secure it themselves and are afraid of exchanges collapsing on them.
Pretty much once the money is gone its gone but if its Visa I have insurance logic.

gogxmagog

legendary

Activity: 1456

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Ad maiora!

no no no no no
now everybody is confused, except mabsark jdany and jimmothy.
see how i didnt include myself in that list of "not confused"?
all i want to know, (well, not ALL) is...
shouldnt AM be worth a little more?
is it hit the ceiling at 0.25?
or are we already over-valued?
sorry to make everybody emboldened enough to speak their mind n all, but srsly guise.
I'm not only losing my shirt over here, but my hair is falling out and my dog keeps looking at me like he's gonna run away soon as I open the door.
throw me some truths

jdany

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

Inspired

Quote from: ?? on ??

And how many refunded?

feedback on the Prisma 2.0 should be coming soon. Assuming it is good, even with minimal sales it will hopefully set an example and a benchmark for next generation products. The memory of the Prisma 1.0
should be sufficient example of what NOT to let out the door.

~~May~~ ~~July~~ ~~August~~ ~~December~~ March? Dividends could still be a reality, but we likely won't know of it until it is done. Too many misses makes one shy to announce anything. I get that. I can continue waiting.

Maybe if we grab torches and pitchforks, we can get a response.

Rabble Rabble

jdany

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Activity: 644

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Inspired

Quote from: xhomerx10 on January 29, 2015, 10:52:12 PM

Quote from: jdany on January 29, 2015, 09:40:32 PM

I was looking at my AM spreadsheet tonight.
There are 2 shares of AM I bought for 4 BTC each.
And, 1 share for 4.2 BTC.

I died a little inside.

Well if you pretend Bitcoin was only worth between $70 and $100 when you made the purchase it might be a little easier to take. Also if you buy another 12.2 Bitcoin worth today at 0.1BTC per share, you can lower your average buy price to 0.1952 BTC and when the share value goes to 0.1952 BTC with a successful BE300 miner announcement you can sell and get all your bitcoins back. Wink

I had a whopping 8 shares of AM at the end of that cycle.
I've added quite a bit more since then, where the 4 BTC shares are averaged down and normalized.

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