only kind of what I was getting at. BASIC-MINING offers a 6% apr based on the share price. ASICMiner offers at ~50-70% APR based on the share price. Why isn't ASICMiner's share price much higher to make its yield more like 6%. Forget bitcoin for a sec, most dividend issuing securities offer 1-3% yield ANNUALLY, and their share price stays proportionally higher to keep this in line. ASICMiner share price goes up, but hardly ever changing the percentage yield ratio, and the yield just keeps growing.
You can't compare a mining business to a regular dividend issuing security, at least I wouldn't do that. For a mining business, AM's share price is already very high in my opinion.
If you expect AM to keep their 25% share of the network for the next three years (how likely is that, really?), within that time they would earn about 985500 BTC. That's 2,46 BTC/share. After that comes the next block halving, and god knows what that's going to do. The only thing that - maybe - justifies a higher share price right now, is the hardware sales. Those have been doubling the profit for a few weeks now, and that's great. But however you see it, they are at the absolute peak right now. Saying "...,and the yield just keeps growing" just has no rational basis. The yield will decrease over time, it only can, how is that not obvious to you? Even if they keep their 25%, the costs to keep that percentage will only increase (electricity and infrastructure), thus decreasing profit. So every valuation of the share has to factor in the unevitable decrease in profits.
And a 3 year projection is already a very long timeframe if you look at the history of bitcoin mining... We're looking at a company here that offers very little transparency, they neither have a website nor a public address. I'm not saying they will, but theoretically, they could just decide to completely screw everyone over, sell all their shares, take the money and just keep mining for themselves. They are making millions of dollars worth of btc, they wouldn't be the first to become criminal for that amount of money. Nobody could stop them.
Yes, yes, everything could turn out wonderful and AM could stay the biggest player in the mining world for decades. But stating that the share price should be so so much higher is just ignoring all the risks, and frankly, common sense and math.
Needless to say, as of today, I'm not a shareholder anymore, I just sold all my shares at ~3.4 and I am quite happy with the profit I made. I don't write this as a measure to push the price down, as I don't plan on buying back in. I'm not even sure I made sense (it's really late), but just see this as an objective opinion that doesn't have the incentive of pumping the share price, which is really rare to come by in this thread.
The question is how can you continues make return in BTC world like that you invest in AM. get short profit is a good deal by one side, but gives up potential future return is in other side.
I think after you sold your AM, You have three choices right now: trading BTC on those exchanges, investing in those very low return stocks or leaves BTC world.
If price of BTC today's is $100 per coin, if it did succeed few years later , it obvious the price of BTC will be strongly appreciated by that time.
Considering to the past history of AM and the potential hardware selling in the future, although the price of AM is expensive right now, it does generating 30% per year. Only if this ROI been proper maintained most of shares holders are not likely to sell their shares cheaper to allow new investors have better ROI. what you sold today just equal to give up future return ...
about the block halving three years later, just means cut its 30% yield by half to 15%, and this will affected to all miners and all mining revenue will be decreased, then is this mean people do not mining?
I don't think so , the only thing will adjusting to it is the price of BTC(Most likely price will be huge increased ,if BTC is survived by that time).
