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Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 956. (Read 3917568 times)

sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
anyway it seems to me that some of the "investors" here are like kids and they start panicking at a slightly lower dividend. I mean everybody knew that the dividends are going to be lower this week. Alright, the speculator weak hands will shake and we can get cheaper shares...

OH yeah - I've increased my holdings nicely today, playing the admittedly dangerous high/low game.  That's a healthy "dividend" that more than makes up for the decrease in dividends.  And if my purchases gave someone some relief from their nerves, then it's a win for them, too.
Me too. Get a extra 4 shares this much much better than dividend ...
full member
Activity: 194
Merit: 100
anyway it seems to me that some of the "investors" here are like kids and they start panicking at a slightly lower dividend. I mean everybody knew that the dividends are going to be lower this week. Alright, the speculator weak hands will shake and we can get cheaper shares...

OH yeah - I've increased my holdings nicely today, playing the admittedly dangerous high/low game.  That's a healthy "dividend" that more than makes up for the decrease in dividends.  And if my purchases gave someone some relief from their nerves, then it's a win for them, too.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1094
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
Settle down settle down, remember that as recently as May 9, 2013... 0.01108519/share was considered stellar performance... Today's dividend is 63% higher than that of May 9th.
remember that back in may 9th it was trading at 1.5 BTC. not 2.8 BTC.

Estimates one more week of scared panic whistle  Cool
Long live Friedcat! XD

(Mumbles thought that the information was pretty widely available that the div would be lower lol)
(Changes selling strategy for next week he-he market logic)
full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100
I encourage people without any idea about probabilities and statistics to NOT tell us in the name of probabilities and statistics what are only their "feelings". Many thanks!

I'll tell you my personal take -- when you see a streak of 2 or 2, skip one, and 2 more.. Anything after that is typically not margin of error/luck/fluke. If you see a 2 or 2-x-2 streak, then it's likely luck.

Just an observation that I can't quantify.

Thanks for the example!  Smiley

No problem -- For what it's worth, I have a strong background in statistics and probability. But some things are just too difficult to quantify, and or we don't really have enough information to quantify.

I think with ASICMINER this week, we're the later.

Ian
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
Someone should start a site where you can bet on who gets the net block. Or probably exists, huh?
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
I encourage people without any idea about probabilities and statistics to NOT tell us in the name of probabilities and statistics what are only their "feelings". Many thanks!

I'll tell you my personal take -- when you see a streak of 2 or 2, skip one, and 2 more.. Anything after that is typically not margin of error/luck/fluke. If you see a 2 or 2-x-2 streak, then it's likely luck.

Just an observation that I can't quantify.

Thanks for the example!  Smiley
full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100
Down to 69.22 th/s in the last hour. PANIC SELL

LOL I love reading this thread each day and refreshing throughout, it is like a cutout from the funnies section!  

I'm a businessman by day (and night,) but my personal opinion is that jokes keep things light hearted. Nobody should take this too seriously. After all is said and done, we still have families, friends, etc.

I can see how this would be viewed as spam'ish, or rhetoric by someone who doesn't feel the same way, though Smiley

Ian

Anyone got #'s for the margin of errors for the variance in looking at 1-4 hours of blocks? Lol.

I'll tell you my personal take -- when you see a streak of 2 or 2, skip one, and 2 more.. Anything after that is typically not margin of error/luck/fluke. For example, 2-x-2-x-1 would probably be due to a lot of hashing power. If you see a 2 or 2-x-2 streak, then it's likely luck. With that said, I would speculate that the recent 2-x-2 finds are likely luck. I would attribute possibly 1 of those to the hashrate, and 3 of them to luck.

Just an observation that I can't quantify.

Margin of error in 24 hours is fairly low, while 48 hours is half of 48 hours. Each one of the sites that shows you a graph takes an hourly hashrate and projects from there. 24 hours has 24 separate samples, 48 hours has 48, etc.

legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
Down to 69.22 th/s in the last hour. PANIC SELL

LOL I love reading this thread each day and refreshing throughout, it is like a cutout from the funnies section! 

I'm a businessman by day (and night,) but my personal opinion is that jokes keep things light hearted. Nobody should take this too seriously. After all is said and done, we still have families, friends, etc.

I can see how this would be viewed as spam'ish, or rhetoric by someone who doesn't feel the same way, though Smiley

Ian

Anyone got #'s for the margin of errors for the variance in looking at 1-4 hours of blocks? Lol.
full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100
Down to 69.22 th/s in the last hour. PANIC SELL

LOL I love reading this thread each day and refreshing throughout, it is like a cutout from the funnies section! 

I'm a businessman by day (and night,) but my personal opinion is that jokes keep things light hearted. Nobody should take this too seriously. After all is said and done, we still have families, friends, etc.

I can see how this would be viewed as spam'ish, or rhetoric by someone who doesn't feel the same way, though Smiley

Ian
full member
Activity: 490
Merit: 101
FRX: Ferocious Alpha
Down to 69.22 th/s in the last hour. PANIC SELL

LOL I love reading this thread each day and refreshing throughout, it is like a cutout from the funnies section! 
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
It's just luck, but it shows things are going back to normal.

It's just luck you said it yourself, and therefore doesn't show anything. You could as well make calculations on the last block only and say that AM has 100% of the hash rate?

I encourage people without any idea about probabilities and statistics to NOT tell us in the name of probabilities and statistics what are only their "feelings". Many thanks!
full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100
Down to 69.22 th/s in the last hour. PANIC SELL
full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100
Anybody with a calculator, please calculate the probability of this happening!

The probability of this happening at the time I posted is exactly 100% Smiley

Ian
sr. member
Activity: 310
Merit: 250


how is 91TH possible? that's just a lucky streak estimate I think. Otherwise it's nearly  70% of the network.

Its a lucky streak. And its awesome.
sr. member
Activity: 362
Merit: 250
Yeah, "seems" fixed...

242324    3 minutes    361    5,568.87 BTC    ASICMiner    242.97
242323    12 minutes    693    10,813.03 BTC    BTC Guild    243.37
242322    25 minutes    271    3,705.69 BTC    ASICMiner    101.97
242321    38 minutes    406    3,786.01 BTC    ASICMiner    201.63

Since we're taking stuff and running with it -- we're at 92.29 th/s!

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=1,2,4,8



Come again?

Quick, somebody with a calculator please calculate the probability of this happening!

Either a lucky streak, or new equipment arrived?
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1003
Yeah, "seems" fixed...

242324    3 minutes    361    5,568.87 BTC    ASICMiner    242.97
242323    12 minutes    693    10,813.03 BTC    BTC Guild    243.37
242322    25 minutes    271    3,705.69 BTC    ASICMiner    101.97
242321    38 minutes    406    3,786.01 BTC    ASICMiner    201.63

Since we're taking stuff and running with it -- we're at 92.29 th/s!

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=1,2,4,8



how is 91TH possible? that's just a lucky streak estimate I think. Otherwise it's nearly  70% of the network.
sr. member
Activity: 310
Merit: 250
I feel sad with anyone who is unhappy with a minimum 30% annual return, even with lower dividends than this one. Apparently, they have completely different expectations than I do.

Also, ASICMiner just found 4 of the last 7 blocks. Please sell, I want cheaper shares. 
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
Yeah, "seems" fixed...

242324    3 minutes    361    5,568.87 BTC    ASICMiner    242.97
242323    12 minutes    693    10,813.03 BTC    BTC Guild    243.37
242322    25 minutes    271    3,705.69 BTC    ASICMiner    101.97
242321    38 minutes    406    3,786.01 BTC    ASICMiner    201.63
Wowing....I feel sad for those selling at 2.6 Cheesy
full member
Activity: 294
Merit: 100
Yeah, "seems" fixed...

242324    3 minutes    361    5,568.87 BTC    ASICMiner    242.97
242323    12 minutes    693    10,813.03 BTC    BTC Guild    243.37
242322    25 minutes    271    3,705.69 BTC    ASICMiner    101.97
242321    38 minutes    406    3,786.01 BTC    ASICMiner    201.63

Since we're taking stuff and running with it -- we're at 92.29 th/s!

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=1,2,4,8

sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
Selling now probably equals: Miss a few weeks of income AND you probably have to buy it back at a higher price when the new blade sales begin... double loss Undecided

I'm at least holding them and enjoying my divs every week Smiley no matter how low/high Grin

that's actually a very good point.  Sure, selling at 3 and buying at 2.5 is great, but it is only possible in hindsight.  The price is climbing back up, and for those that sold at ~2.6, they probably can't get back in without a loss.

It's always easy to trade in hindsight, but the reality is that no one knows what is going to happen in the future.  We all knew there was going to be a share slump (some people didn't want to admit it), but no one knew how much.
I am glad buying a 40 shares average at 2.65 seems a bit higher than other.. but I believe this a good time ..
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