ASIC's hitting later than expected = Good thing? - page 2.

abeaulieu

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Quote from: rupy on November 29, 2012, 10:16:14 AM

Seems difficulty is exploding?!

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Hm, so GPUs are NOT taken offline (even though unprofitable, at least the hashing power is not going down).

What could cause this increase in hashing power, ASIC?

Check again (http://bitcoin.sipa.be/) people are certainly removing GPUs from mining as of lately. It should be reflected in a couple blocks by a *slight* decrease in difficulty.

420

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Quote from: michaelmclees on December 07, 2012, 12:36:24 PM

Get out and buy BTC with your dollars. If you think ASIC's are coming at all soon, you'll soon be outgunned by not only all the buyers of ASIC's... but the ASIC companies themselves mining with their stock. Imagine if AMD put all their unsold GPU's to work mining BTC? Imagine if for every GH you buy from some ASIC manufacturer, they create 3 and use 2 to mine for themselves. This is what you'll soon be up against.

the only benefit is getting the btc now and paying the electricity cost later, but at a loss it is mostly worth just buying btc with usd instead

michaelmclees

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Get out and buy BTC with your dollars. If you think ASIC's are coming at all soon, you'll soon be outgunned by not only all the buyers of ASIC's... but the ASIC companies themselves mining with their stock. Imagine if AMD put all their unsold GPU's to work mining BTC? Imagine if for every GH you buy from some ASIC manufacturer, they create 3 and use 2 to mine for themselves. This is what you'll soon be up against.

RyanRed

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Im still playing chicken. But every day I wake up asking myself why. Im trying to convince myself to just take it all offline, but I cant seem to do it yet.

bcpokey

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I think this graph says it somewhat better:

Largest spike in the past 2 months at halving. Looks like whatever caused it is dying down now though.

rupy

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Playing chicken only works if your not loosing money. Heating is a good argument of course; until loss becomes larger than difference of heat between regular electric heater and GPU, and thats a long way away = summer, just like the 12.5 difficulty increase needed for me to stop mining with FPGA.

I think most GPU miners are speculative in their loss now, they are so certain of BTC longterm success that they rather keep paying electricity, at a net loss today, to create BTC!

bcpokey

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Quote from: Gomeler on November 29, 2012, 03:57:54 PM

Exploding? It appears to be growing at 0.5% per day give or take a bit. That's pretty typical for the last couple of months.

Not really true... or even partially true.

Only passed ~.5% in Sept and lasted a little over a month, after which the rate of growth has been steadily decreasing from Mid-Oct until Late Nov (where it was down to about .35%/day) when there was a sudden reversal and seeming surge of new hardware right around block halving.

The reasons remain mysterious, super-coincidental crazy network-luck, miners turning on to grab the last 50block and forgetting to turn off, asics, who knows? But it definitely bucked the trend right at halving, when many people have claimed to be switching off. Mysterious.

bitboyben

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Maybe miners are playing chicken. They know if the other guy quits it will make them more profitable so no one wants to pull the plug.

Gomeler

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Exploding? It appears to be growing at 0.5% per day give or take a bit. That's pretty typical for the last couple of months.

rupy

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Seems difficulty is exploding?!

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Hm, so GPUs are NOT taken offline (even though unprofitable, at least the hashing power is not going down).

What could cause this increase in hashing power, ASIC?

n4l3hp

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LTC network hashrate have already doubled but the estimated next difficulty of BTC is still higher than current.

Probably the ones who have "free electricity" have overclocked their GPUs to the max or the BTC pools are very lucky lately.

Quote

So that means no GPUs have been taken offline...

In fact, the GPUs of my 1.7gh/s rig have already found new homes in my 2 sons and nephew's gaming rigs.

rupy

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Quote from: Gomeler on November 28, 2012, 05:22:13 PM

Quote from: rupy on November 28, 2012, 03:07:26 PM

Ok, seems I was right, revenue per block stays the same or better it seems?! So that must mean about half of miners stopped?! It's increasing block by block so happy days for FPGA!

This is so weird, must mean all miners on deepbit use FPGA or keep GPU going?!

But block speed should be half and its been ~3 hours and 28 blocks mined so that doesent make sense? Can somebody please explain whats going on?

Random variance. Block 210041 was ~39 minutes long.

Hm, ok stats have been corrected, I now earn half.. Sad

So that means no GPUs have been taken offline...

tvbcof

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Later than expected by whom? Probably a year ago when I was pondering things, I figured that ASIC would be probably be between 2014-ish and never. I figured that there were probably ways of burning hard-copies of FPGA, but that they probably would not be particularly optimal in either price or performance. I knew (and know) close to zero about the technology however.

One thing I have and do take an interest in are the various 'free energy' machines. How they have sprung up and faded away, how they have been marketed, and the personality types who tend to get swindled. The little bits of marketing I've seen associated with ASIC mining gear reminds me of the 'free energy' stuff a lot. The main difference between the victims is that in the case of 'free energy' they seem to be of the naive do-good variety; in the case of Bitcoin they seem to be often characterizable as greedy assholes.

Gomeler

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Quote from: rupy on November 28, 2012, 03:07:26 PM

Ok, seems I was right, revenue per block stays the same or better it seems?! So that must mean about half of miners stopped?! It's increasing block by block so happy days for FPGA!

This is so weird, must mean all miners on deepbit use FPGA or keep GPU going?!

But block speed should be half and its been ~3 hours and 28 blocks mined so that doesent make sense? Can somebody please explain whats going on?

Random variance. Block 210041 was ~39 minutes long.

The-Real-Link

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Good point OP. Was thinking the same. This way even though it goes against my profiting feelings, at least everyone who has an ASIC will be starting on fair ground at 25 coin blocks. I know people anticipated earning during the 50 coin blocks but that time is now passed.

Even if ASICs are 2-3 weeks out or so, we may still be able to get an indication of how many people are dropping simply due to network power or times solving a block. Not 100% accurate by any means but perhaps good enough.

rupy

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Ok, seems I was right, revenue per block stays the same or better it seems?! So that must mean about half of miners stopped?! It's increasing block by block so happy days for FPGA!

This is so weird, must mean all miners on deepbit use FPGA or keep GPU going?!

But block speed should be half and its been ~3 hours and 28 blocks mined so that doesent make sense? Can somebody please explain whats going on?

Gomeler

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At $0.11 USD/kWh and it being winter in Colorado I am still mining away on GPUs. My apartment stays at a comfortable temperature and with current difficulty and rewards I'm still making a few hundred dollars above electricity costs.

Something interesting.. Litecoin/BTC pricing doesn't appear to have budged. According to http://www.litecoinpool.org/calc if I were mining litecoins right now I'd earn roughly the same BTC as I was earning prior to the reward split.

rupy

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Quote from: Meatball on November 27, 2012, 12:41:14 PM

You normally get difficulty adjustments about every 2 weeks, if half the people shut down, difficulty will still be the same until the next reset, but since half as many people are hashing, it'll take twice as long to get there.

Yes, but your income would double! = no change from reward drop if half the miners stop mining!

Edit: Hum, I stand corrected, seems GPU miners are still mining, deepbit hashing power didn't budge at all!?

bitcoindaddy

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Quote from: bitboyben on November 28, 2012, 03:01:14 AM

Well if difficulty drops half way then wouldn't we be making the same as before?

I think if BTC price/difficulty ratio history were to apply here it will take two difficulty periods before people actually shut down. I think ASICS will be out the door before we see the total effect of block halving.

If I look at that calculator I see ~$0.15kw/hr power consumers roughly breaking even. Correct me if im wrong. But maybe somethink it is worth it to heat their home.

IMHO it isn't good for the BTC community to shrink.

Your reward drop will happen immediately and thus your rate of earning will drop immediately, but any changes to difficulty will happen slowly. Even if you think the price will rise or difficulty will drop, it probably doesn't make any sense to mine for the next few weeks unless you have free power.

bitboyben

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Well if difficulty drops half way then wouldn't we be making the same as before?

I think if BTC price/difficulty ratio history were to apply here it will take two difficulty periods before people actually shut down. I think ASICS will be out the door before we see the total effect of block halving.

If I look at that calculator I see ~$0.15kw/hr power consumers roughly breaking even. Correct me if im wrong. But maybe somethink it is worth it to heat their home.

IMHO it isn't good for the BTC community to shrink.

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