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Topic: ASIC's hitting later than expected = Good thing? - page 3. (Read 6091 times)

sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
Yup, I'll get more profit from my GPUs.  As far as I'm concerned I'd be happy as a pig in slop if ASICs got delayed another 6 months, lol.

You're kidding right? Or do you have free power? With the reward halving - I am shutting down. Use the bitcoin profitability calculator and see if you are actually making money after Wednesday with 25 BTC:

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/

Yeah, unless more than half the people shut down then you won't be making more profit.  If you're counting on people dropping out and there being a big difficulty drop, don't.  Difficulty drops take forever to hit compared to how quickly difficulty can ramp up.  You normally get difficulty adjustments about every 2 weeks, if half the people shut down, difficulty will still be the same until the next reset, but since half as many people are hashing, it'll take twice as long to get there.

We just adjusted to 3.43 Million difficulty about a day or so ago with a network hashing rate of ~ 24-25 TH.  If nothing changes we'll see the next adjustment around 12/10.  When the reward drops we'll still have 1680 blocks left to find before the difficulty drop.  If the network suddenly drops to 12-13 TH, it'll probably take double the time it normally would to find those 1680, or 20 minutes a block.  Calculate that out and we're talking 23.3 days from that point to finish those remaining blocks or somewhere around 12/21 or 12/22.  That whole time you will be getting half as much per block, and the blocks are going to be longer in coming.
hero member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 502
I have free power. If anyone has a couple rigs they want me to host for them. I'll do a 50/50 split Smiley
hero member
Activity: 481
Merit: 500
Yup, I'll get more profit from my GPUs.  As far as I'm concerned I'd be happy as a pig in slop if ASICs got delayed another 6 months, lol.

You're kidding right? Or do you have free power? With the reward halving - I am shutting down. Use the bitcoin profitability calculator and see if you are actually making money after Wednesday with 25 BTC:

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/
newbie
Activity: 59
Merit: 0
Yup, I'll get more profit from my GPUs.  As far as I'm concerned I'd be happy as a pig in slop if ASICs got delayed another 6 months, lol.
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
Great points of benefit
hero member
Activity: 991
Merit: 500
I think it's a good thing. It allows me to get more of my ROI from my video cards. Had the ASICs been released sooner, my video cards would've been put out of work.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
Items flashing here available at btctrinkets.com
I guess that's a point for some people.

Personally, I think it would be interesting to see what happens at halving... and then again at ASIC release. We can expect a quick crash and even quicker recovery when ASICs hit... but halving may slowly drive the price or may do nothing at all...


I would also prefer if these two massive changes did not coincide. It would make things much simpler.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
Good for my fpga's that havet yet reached 100% RoI
Kinda bad for my gpu's at my electric rates the off chanse of breakage is not covered with what remains of profit after the reward halving.
Bad for my Asic order.

I guess atleast I have my risk decentralized ?

I guess that's a point for some people.

Personally, I think it would be interesting to see what happens at halving... and then again at ASIC release. We can expect a quick crash and even quicker recovery when ASICs hit... but halving may slowly drive the price or may do nothing at all...

hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
Items flashing here available at btctrinkets.com
Good for my fpga's that havet yet reached 100% RoI
Kinda bad for my gpu's at my electric rates the off chanse of breakage is not covered with what remains of profit after the reward halving.
Bad for my Asic order.

I guess atleast I have my risk decentralized ?
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
Good thing for whom is the question.

It's good for people with an academic interest in bitcoin. It's incredibly bad for people who plunked thousands of dollars down 5-6 months ago.
On a grander scale, it is neutral and doesn't matter either way.
newbie
Activity: 43
Merit: 0
I think that ASIC's are seeing delays and are going to hit for at least a couple of weeks after the reward drop has a silver lining.

I concur.  The halving and ASICs occurring at the same time could have been quite a mess.

The week following the halving should be very interesting indeed.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
Another block in the wall

If ASIC's arrived while the network was still in the midst of the reward drop change, it would be impossible to understand if changes we see were brought about by the ASIC's or the reward drop. 

Don't forget the 2012 end-of-times flood.

Which reminds me, since the world gonna end and all, send me your bitcoins. I'll put in a good word for ya.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
I think that ASIC's are seeing delays and are going to hit for at least a couple of weeks after the reward drop has a silver lining.  Since the reward drop occurring while ASIC's are not in the mix, we can get a good picture of how the BTC network reacts to the reward drop alone.  Will it drive some people out?  Lower the difficulty?  Drive up the price?  We should know in a few weeks.

If ASIC's arrived while the network was still in the midst of the reward drop change, it would be impossible to understand if changes we see were brought about by the ASIC's or the reward drop.  The inverse is true as well, if the network has time to work it's way through any impacts the reward drop may have before anyone starts mining with ASIC's then we have to opportunity to watch ASIC's impact on the network without any influence from the reward drop.
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