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Topic: "Assassination Market". Potential hostage crisis brewing. Need game theory (Read 3967 times)

newbie
Activity: 54
Merit: 0
Yep, i would imagine that the FBI will go after whoever it is who created it. Nothing will happen for a while because its most probably someone after people's bitcoin.

certainly though, if the website stays up, and its not a scam.... and BTC goes to 10,000... i doubt bernanke will ever leave his private island that he will be forced to build....
hero member
Activity: 803
Merit: 500
Has this idea fled of an nightmarish dytopia?

Seems my phantasy is weak, I am shocked.

Imagine ... 124 Coins on Benake. What will happen when Bitcoin reaches 10k in worth?
newbie
Activity: 54
Merit: 0

To murder out of political reasons is despicable.

But regardless if you see that i another light, there is another issue evolving here.

Who says that this has to stop at a level of political leaders?

The same priniciple of anonymity of information and payment combined with assassination crowdfunding could easily be adopted to a local level.

Lets assume you have made a fortune with your BTCs and your neighbors really are annoyed of you driving around with your expensive cars and loud parties in your garden. The dispute escalates (like it does hundreds of thousands times a year) and they start a anonym crowdfunding. Boom.

I don't really see this as ever being an issue... do you think people really need the threat of death hanging over their heads to not go around being a knob to everyone they meet?

Or another example somebody is REALLY pissed that you took his girlfriend. He isnt rich but 100k$ he is able to gather together. Boom.

Or another example, you are a teacher of your local highschool and you are building a local group against discrmination of homosexuals. Alot of people in the entourage of the school doen like this at all. Boom.

I could go on and on forever finding situations where somebody or some group could crowdfund enough dough to hire a assassin. Its by the way no coinicidence that he is denying on his website any assassinations in terms of pro or contra abortion. Imagine all the hate in between those two groups.

Imo, that is a HUGE PROBLEM in the longterm, cause i dont wanna live in a place and situation were every fuckin nutjob with 100k$ is capable of killing another person and even if it fails and the assassin is caught he will stay anonym and he could give somebody else the job again.

Not good.

I can certainly see where you're coming from, i don't think that the concerns are really warranted though, this kind of thing happens privately anyway for the wacko's that really have a vendetta and that to me seems like it should be much more of a concern if you don't know about it, if you crowdfund a murder on a website then surely the person who is targeted will be aware of it if they are doing something that is going to potentially piss alot of people off.

Seems to me that people would be more likely to not do things to piss people off if they think there might be severe consequences and it would likely never get to that point... Its a very touchy subject though, a kind of crowd funded murder for justice (if there can be such a thing) system is somewhat going back to the dark ages where there were bounties on peoples heads... who knows what would happen in todays modern society?

On the flip side of the coin, what would happen to the rapists and truly morally bereft/psychotic people... they certainly wouldn't get put in a seperate cell block from the others and live a tax payer funded existence... which i realise could be a double edged sword if someone was framed... but i would imagine that the people who are funding would do the research if they were willing to live with something like that on their conscience... then again, if someone saw a bounty appear on their head, they'd leave wherever they were and probably would have to live a very ostracized life, change their identity and most decent people wouldn't want to be associated with someone who is essentially an outlaw... In todays age you'd have law enforcement as well as other people investigating the bounties put up on the site and why they're up there...


The can of worms is now opened... and the idea is out there, what does everyone think will happen?
hero member
Activity: 950
Merit: 1001
Who says that this has to stop at a level of political leaders?
Carlton Banks does, that's who!
Create an assasination prevention market.

Nearly everyone provides so much of a benefit to society that it would never be cost-effective to kill them. And if psycho ex-boyfriends with $100K become a widespread problem, I think your loved ones would buy insurance against it.

Besides, this allegedly already happened when Dread Pirate Roberts ordered a hit. The government simply staged a fake video and used it against him.
ImI
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1019
I don't agree with the principle, if you want to stop obama or bernanke then promote bitcoins... don't make a martyr out of either of them.

It could well be a scam, but then again... maybe its not, there are an awful lot of people in countries all around the world that have had their lives ruined by the western banking system, and those 2 are the figureheads for that system... What i do find amusing is that people are shocked that this could happen and wondering what to do about it, surely when you have a society based on the fundamental premise that its ok to do violence against someone as long as its "for the greater good" and the leaders of that society use that violence with impunity then its reasonable to assume that people are going to turn to violence as a solution for things they see as problems that the leaders do... Monkey see, Monkey do.

The best thing you can do is to promote the shite out of bitcoin and hope that it defangs the criminals in positions of power before enough people decide they want them dead for someone to think it lucrative enough to have a crack at it... In the meantime whilst you're waiting, read some books and spend some time in the sun.


To murder out of political reasons is despicable.

But regardless if you see that i another light, there is another issue evolving here.

Who says that this has to stop at a level of political leaders?

The same priniciple of anonymity of information and payment combined with assassination crowdfunding could easily be adopted to a local level.

Lets assume you have made a fortune with your BTCs and your neighbors really are annoyed of you driving around with your expensive cars and loud parties in your garden. The dispute escalates (like it does hundreds of thousands times a year) and they start a anonym crowdfunding. Boom.

Or another example somebody is REALLY pissed that you took his girlfriend. He isnt rich but 100k$ he is able to gather together. Boom.

Or another example, you are a teacher of your local highschool and you are building a local group against discrmination of homosexuals. Alot of people in the entourage of the school doen like this at all. Boom.

I could go on and on forever finding situations where somebody or some group could crowdfund enough dough to hire a assassin. Its by the way no coinicidence that he is denying on his website any assassinations in terms of pro or contra abortion. Imagine all the hate in between those two groups.

Imo, that is a HUGE PROBLEM in the longterm, cause i dont wanna live in a place and situation were every fuckin nutjob with 100k$ is capable of killing another person and even if it fails and the assassin is caught he will stay anonym and he could give somebody else the job again.

Not good.
newbie
Activity: 54
Merit: 0
I don't agree with the principle, if you want to stop obama or bernanke then promote bitcoins... don't make a martyr out of either of them.

It could well be a scam, but then again... maybe its not, there are an awful lot of people in countries all around the world that have had their lives ruined by the western banking system, and those 2 are the figureheads for that system... What i do find amusing is that people are shocked that this could happen and wondering what to do about it, surely when you have a society based on the fundamental premise that its ok to do violence against someone as long as its "for the greater good" and the leaders of that society use that violence with impunity then its reasonable to assume that people are going to turn to violence as a solution for things they see as problems that the leaders do... Monkey see, Monkey do.

The best thing you can do is to promote the shite out of bitcoin and hope that it defangs the criminals in positions of power before enough people decide they want them dead for someone to think it lucrative enough to have a crack at it... In the meantime whilst you're waiting, read some books and spend some time in the sun.
legendary
Activity: 4410
Merit: 4788
we all know that the euro EG europe opens up new weed cafe's every other day, we know that new brothels open every other day. but do we really need a free advertising campain for these notorious sites on a forum that is about money.

i never see wall street magazines and forums advertise every time a brothel is opened in las vegas. so why are we advertising notorious websites. lets try to keep a distinctive line between bitcoin and notorious services using bitcoin.

i have hardly seen anyone mention all the 12000 plus legit businesses. so lets not highlight the notorious stuff as much, if they want freedom to do notorious stuff then let them go find it themselves. lets not make bitcoin all about "illegal activity"
sr. member
Activity: 333
Merit: 252


If he's serious about getting it working, he'll probably find a way. The problem I see is that he wants it to work. Even if he fails, there could easily be copycats once they see what's possible.

all I see right now is a not-so-elaborate scam.
And it's not the first one. Hidden wiki had "assassination markets" listed by the dozen a year or couples of years ago. There're still a few of them listed.
The point is that one paid "order" is more than enough to pay not only for setting up a few hidden sites, but also for some  advertising effort - like this guy that had emailed  a  bitcoin journalist at forbes about this "venture."  From what I understand, he's already got at least 1 btc out of it. I think he can call it a success.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
i'm not an extremist. i don't believe in assassination markets for multiple reasons. that's not to say that the assassination targets are the scum of the earth, but paying for their death is just too extreme for me. and even worse, it'll put bitcoin in the crosshair of the feds.

and as mentioned, it just opens the door for some douche bag to create a scammy assassination market to run away with the funds.
hero member
Activity: 775
Merit: 1000
This market can't work.



two problems:
-The first is obvious: the anonymous site owner can run with the money.
There's  no reason to suppose he will ever pay out anything.
Assuming he never ends up owing money to an assassin and he's 100% sure that his security hasn't been compromised. In the media articles the quotes made it seem like he was reckless and desperate, not cocky.

Quote
-The second problem: The suggested way of proving that you made the hit
is very naive.  Basically, to claim the bounty all you need to do is to submit a (hash of) the date
the hit will be done, and pay 0.1% of the bounty. Nothing prevents you from submitting say  365 claims for the biggest bounty,
and wait for someone else to do the hit.  If you believe the site is legit (e.g. will pay
out) you should do this to win 73.5% of the bounty if the hit is done within a year and if you submitted
the claim before the killer (I don't know what the site will do if two or more people claim
the same date; it doesn't say).

Edit: if there are multiple predictions, he claims he'll split the bounty between them.

Edit2: The bounies are obviously made-up.
Looking at the bounty address for Ben's  head,     13DF5tKZfq8X8hGdhDUySSPgD8iGsFv2WG,
first of all you see that all the donations made except the first one have 0.0005 fee,
whereas the default now is 0.0001. This already hints that they could have been made by the same
person. Further, if you take the first donation made with this 0.0005 fee, which was from this address
1CNd58gBE5Hyxj62kVr1BArhVwdemuYZ7H , then you follow the chain from the "change" address,
always following the biggest output (there are always two), in ~15 steps you arrive at the
3rd donation (2nd with 0.0005 fee) to the same bounty address, made from here 1FRFwBPtRmWs6mU4FZ3faQuLz9eyBKgkrk .
I didn't follow this further, because  to me the conclusion is already clear:
all or the vast majority of the transactions to this address were made by the same person - the
"assassination market" owner,
who is just a  scammer.

If he's serious about getting it working, he'll probably find a way. The problem I see is that he wants it to work. Even if he fails, there could easily be copycats once they see what's possible.
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 3080

Edit2: The bounies are obviously made-up.
Looking at the bounty address for Ben's  head,     13DF5tKZfq8X8hGdhDUySSPgD8iGsFv2WG,
first of all you see that all the donations made except the first one have 0.0005 fee,
whereas the default now is 0.0001. This already hints that they could have been made by the same
person. Further, if you take the first donation made with this 0.0005 fee, which was from this address
1CNd58gBE5Hyxj62kVr1BArhVwdemuYZ7H , then you follow the chain from the "change" address,
always following the biggest output (there are always two), in ~15 steps you arrive at the
3rd donation (2nd with 0.0005 fee) to the same bounty address, made from here 1FRFwBPtRmWs6mU4FZ3faQuLz9eyBKgkrk .
I didn't follow this further, because  to me the conclusion is already clear:
all or the vast majority of the transactions to this address were made by the same person - the
"assassination market" owner,
who is just a  scammer.

And, it looks like whoever it was is using an old version of the client, or at least old knowledge of what the minimum fees are these days. Doh.

As well, what's to stop this counter measure:

Create an assasination prevention market.

Same names on the list, crowdsource donations to fund the protection effort. Carries all the same problems of gaming any burden of proof system, but if there's always more in the pot for "don't kill" than "do kill", then it is a success of sorts (i.e. "we surveyed the Bitcoin community, and the vast majority prefer live and let live to assassination, they backed the claims with money" etc)
sr. member
Activity: 333
Merit: 252
This market can't work.



two problems:
-The first is obvious: the anonymous site owner can run with the money.
There's  no reason to suppose he will ever pay out anything.

-The second problem: The suggested way of proving that you made the hit
is very naive.  Basically, to claim the bounty all you need to do is to submit a (hash of) the date
the hit will be done, and pay 0.1% of the bounty. Nothing prevents you from submitting say  365 claims for the biggest bounty,
and wait for someone else to do the hit.  If you believe the site is legit (e.g. will pay
out) you should do this to win 73.5% of the bounty if the hit is done within a year and if you submitted
the claim before the killer (I don't know what the site will do if two or more people claim
the same date; it doesn't say).

Edit: if there are multiple predictions, he claims he'll split the bounty between them.

Edit2: The bounies are obviously made-up.
Looking at the bounty address for Ben's  head,     13DF5tKZfq8X8hGdhDUySSPgD8iGsFv2WG,
first of all you see that all the donations made except the first one have 0.0005 fee,
whereas the default now is 0.0001. This already hints that they could have been made by the same
person. Further, if you take the first donation made with this 0.0005 fee, which was from this address
1CNd58gBE5Hyxj62kVr1BArhVwdemuYZ7H , then you follow the chain from the "change" address,
always following the biggest output (there are always two), in ~15 steps you arrive at the
3rd donation (2nd with 0.0005 fee) to the same bounty address, made from here 1FRFwBPtRmWs6mU4FZ3faQuLz9eyBKgkrk .
I didn't follow this further, because  to me the conclusion is already clear:
all or the vast majority of the transactions to this address were made by the same person - the
"assassination market" owner,
who is just a  scammer.
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
umm, if you donate to this market you SHOULD be arrested.
don't send money to real or fake assassination markets. period.
hero member
Activity: 775
Merit: 1000
Updated OP:


This is how I see things potentially playing out. At first, nobody takes the threat seriously. Everyone who has followed Bitcoin has seen so many scams and would-be disasters that were supposed to destroy Bitcoin but failed, that we've become numb to it all.

Occasionally a few coins get deposited, and it's seen as black humour for the lulz. Who cares if it's probably a scam and the creators will disappear with the money? It's Bitcoin -- stuff like that happens all the time. It's a risk people take when trying to remain anonymous, and 2-party escrow is still in beta. Authorities probably could take down the website if they wanted to. IF.

Meanwhile, the funds slowly add up and eventually they reach a tipping point. Whether it's because of slow accumulation or rising exchange rate doesn't matter. Some big-name politician gets killed, and that's when the SHTF.

Suddenly, the news is 100 times worse than Silk Road ever was. Massive regulation ensues. Innocent Bitcoin enthusiasts, miners, early adopters, and developers get arrested. Masses of people who don't care about any alternative political systems like Laissez-faire, Anarchy, Anarcho-Capitalism, Libertarianism, Zeitgeist Movement, etc., they see this from the POV of "normal" people: murder caused by Bitcoin and therefore it must be stopped.

And who gains in all of this? Not some phantom government which is supposedly evil and coercive -- they're just taking bribes like all good Capitalists. It's the fucking dinosaur banking sector.
hero member
Activity: 775
Merit: 1000

Fractional Reserve banking.
If all else fails, bad debts can be written off and deleted. But banks are greedy. As long as a bank can avoid doing that, it will. They want to have their cake (conjure up easy loans despite a lack of deposit funds) and eat it too (if a debt goes bad, keep the usury payments ticking along by repackaging the debt and selling it to someone else.

The FRB system has been gamed and Bitcoin is a much needed wake-up call.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Look at the chart of Rome's population falling from 1.4 million to 30,000.
A model you'd like to follow?

Quote
Global financial implosions are chaotic.
a) No. There has never been one, so you wouldn't know.
b) Aggregate human behaviour is chaotic.
c) Chaos theory is a theory about the behaviour and evolution of complex dynamic systems. You seem to be confusing the general idea that things are unpredictable with different ideas of wanton destruction.

Quote
Your ordered world is going to take a flying fuck.

Order is being propped up by debt. Check out this chart of developed countries TOTAL debt-to-GDP, e.g. 550% in UK:

http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/11855-total-debt-to-gdp.html#axzz2iu5C4Y4Z
You assume too much.
And you don't seem to understand the issues.
For example: Japan owes no debt to the outside world. What the media have labelled debt there is just credit. Some countries have it bad for various reasons, for example: deregulation of the banking sector which allowed the banks to become (more) corrupt and trade among themselves, while withholding credit from the people, thus turning the GFC into a real crisis rather than just imaginary bullshit where the banks' dodgy books didn't add up.

So when you say "order is propped up by debt", you're completely wrong. If anything, credit is being propped by (relative) order.

I suggest you read this:

http://blog.mpettis.com/2013/10/hidden-debt-must-still-be-repayed/

Debt restructuring is always paid by someone. The only issue is who will pay and how we go about getting them to pay.

The difference range the gamut from "off with their heads" (the loan sharks and crony officials) to Madmax (when the former two can ram it down the throat of the middle class by suckering the middle class into socialism).

Either way, we will see a period of chaos.

The order and the debt go hand-in-hand, no matter which you put first in your sentence.
hero member
Activity: 775
Merit: 1000
Look at the chart of Rome's population falling from 1.4 million to 30,000.
A model you'd like to follow?

Quote
Global financial implosions are chaotic.
a) No. There has never been one, so you wouldn't know.
b) Aggregate human behaviour is chaotic.
c) Chaos theory is a theory about the behaviour and evolution of complex dynamic systems. You seem to be confusing the general idea that things are unpredictable with different ideas of wanton destruction.

Quote
Your ordered world is going to take a flying fuck.

Order is being propped up by debt. Check out this chart of developed countries TOTAL debt-to-GDP, e.g. 550% in UK:

http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/11855-total-debt-to-gdp.html#axzz2iu5C4Y4Z
You assume too much.
And you don't seem to understand the issues.
For example: Japan owes no debt to the outside world. What the media have labelled debt there is just credit. Some countries have it bad for various reasons, for example: deregulation of the banking sector which allowed the banks to become (more) corrupt and trade among themselves, while withholding credit from the people, thus turning the GFC into a real crisis rather than just imaginary bullshit where the banks' dodgy books didn't add up.

So when you say "order is propped up by debt", you're completely wrong. If anything, credit is being propped by (relative) order.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Chaos means you don't have time to keep up with all the freedom. Just ride it.
Evil things happen because a few evil people were more organised. It's always like that.

Quote
Bottom-up, individualism is a bitch of an adjustment psychologically when you've been accustomed to top-down, collectivism.
^
(Talk of "new paradigm" -- must be near the top of the bubble.)
What you're talking about is extremist, full of flaws, and will not play out how you think it will play out. It's all fun and games when theorising on politics fora about "which ideological story is better: Anarchy or Socialism?" But when people start playing with others' lives, I think it's time someone told you that you guys need more theory homework.

Look at the chart of Rome's population falling from 1.4 million to 30,000.

Global financial implosions are chaotic.

Your ordered world is going to take a flying fuck.

Order is being propped up by debt. Check out this chart of developed countries TOTAL debt-to-GDP, e.g. 550% in UK:

http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/11855-total-debt-to-gdp.html#axzz2iu5C4Y4Z
hero member
Activity: 775
Merit: 1000
waste of btc for all parties involved. i'm guessing it's a scam that won't last long.

It's Bitcoin. The site operator couldn't reverse the transactions even if he wanted to. If, by some stroke of luck he changed his mind and decided to shut the site down:
a) He's potentially got some very angry and dangerous customers.
b) It would be difficult to convincingly get rid of the coins, say, by donating them to a charity, or do anything at all to protect himself from the wrath of other people.

Either way, he risks not escaping alive. Therefore: serious concern that his plan is to get martyred.
hero member
Activity: 775
Merit: 1000
Chaos means you don't have time to keep up with all the freedom. Just ride it.
Evil things happen because a few evil people were more organised. It's always like that.

Quote
Bottom-up, individualism is a bitch of an adjustment psychologically when you've been accustomed to top-down, collectivism.
^
(Talk of "new paradigm" -- must be near the top of the bubble.)
What you're talking about is extremist, full of flaws, and will not play out how you think it will play out. It's all fun and games when theorising on politics fora about "which ideological story is better: Anarchy or Socialism?" But when people start playing with others' lives, I think it's time someone told you that you guys need more theory homework.

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