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Topic: Avalon ASIC Batch #2 Income Sharing; arrived and hashing - page 12. (Read 23457 times)

hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
You may purchase 1/100 (1 share) of the income of my Avalon Batch #2 ASIC Miner for each BTC 0.8683


So can I buy out your batch #2 avalon with 86.83btc?
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1002
What will happen to the received BTC if you do not get enough to purchase the Series 3?

Since I already have a paid order for the Batch #2, I will deliver what I promised.

So long as I have not spent the coin on Batch #3, I don't mind returning money to anyone who wants out, for any reason.

Batch #2 did re-open after Avalon did an audit on the orders that were paid or not.  So I suppose I should still try to gather the BTC 75 or so in case a Batch #3 becomes available.



legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018

  • Profitability decline per year: I would suggest to insert 0.3 or lower (difficulty will raise fast. For my own calculations I usually use 0.1)


I think this is reverse. 0.3 means in next year you are expected to earn 30% less. So, 0.1 means 10% less (i.e., you retain income level at 90% of first year). So, to be pessimistic, put in higher value.

No, it does not work like that. Play with that variable in http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ and you will see
full member
Activity: 308
Merit: 102

  • Profitability decline per year: I would suggest to insert 0.3 or lower (difficulty will raise fast. For my own calculations I usually use 0.1)


I think this is reverse. 0.3 means in next year you are expected to earn 30% less. So, 0.1 means 10% less (i.e., you retain income level at 90% of first year). So, to be pessimistic, put in higher value.
sr. member
Activity: 411
Merit: 250
What will happen to the received BTC if you do not get enough to purchase the Series 3?
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018


You forgot to change the difficulty.

I got this difficulty from https://blockchain.info/stats.  Should I use a different one?


Yeah. Make difficulty at least x2 (12,695,826). And please, in the USD cost of the hardware insert the price you are willing your investors to pay (250BTC, which at the current exchange rate is almost 20k). The details you should consider:

  • Difficulty: at least x2 (12,695,826)
  • Hashrate: make it 60,000, as you won't get 24/7 uptime
  • Electricity rate: use your own ($0.08)
  • Power consumption: 620w
  • Time frame: as you wish (3 months in this example)
  • Cost of mining hardware (USD): multiply 250BTC x current USD exchange rate = $19,767.5
  • Profitability decline per year: I would suggest to insert 0.3 or lower (difficulty will raise fast. For my own calculations I usually use 0.1)

With that reasonable parameters your investors would be looking at ROI in 124 days. Probably more if difficulty goes x10 by the end of the year.

I think that you'r big mistake was:

- considering that the difficulty will be the same
- more important: including in the "cost of mining hardware" what it costed to YOU, not what it will cost to your investor (which is the point, don't you think?)
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1002
I removed it because I wasn't active on these forums anymore and didn't want people wasting their BTC on me sending to a defunct address that I don't have the keys to anymore, but if you're going to offer, how can I refuse!

Wise man.

Also, I have substantially changed the opening post.
sr. member
Activity: 411
Merit: 250
I removed it because I wasn't active on these forums anymore and didn't want people wasting their BTC on me sending to a defunct address that I don't have the keys to anymore, but if you're going to offer, how can I refuse!
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1002
Regarding taxes:

http://fincen.gov/statutes_regs/guidance/html/FIN-2013-G001.html

For an explanation, http://www.grc.com/sn/sn-396.pdf starting on page 13.

Essentially, you don't have to worry until you convert it into fiat. I suppose if you bought physical goods worth over $600 that might be debatable, but just getting BTC is not regulated.

Quote
And actually there's one last thing I forgot. Under "De-Centralized Virtual Currencies" -
so, I mean, they're leaving no doubt here. They said: "A final type of convertible virtual
currency activity involves a de-centralized convertible virtual currency (1) that has no
central repository and no single administrator, and (2) that persons may obtain by their
own computing or manufacturing effort. A person that creates units of this convertible
virtual currency and uses it to purchase real or virtual goods and services is a user of the
convertible virtual currency and not subject to regulation as a money transmitter."

I have tipped one poster in the past.  You are a candidate for Nr. 2.  But I don't see any payment address in your signature.  I think that if you just update the signature, all your posts will show the new (current) one.
sr. member
Activity: 411
Merit: 250
Regarding taxes:

http://fincen.gov/statutes_regs/guidance/html/FIN-2013-G001.html

For an explanation, http://www.grc.com/sn/sn-396.pdf starting on page 13.

Essentially, you don't have to worry until you convert it into fiat. I suppose if you bought physical goods worth over $600 that might be debatable, but just getting BTC is not regulated.

Quote
And actually there's one last thing I forgot. Under "De-Centralized Virtual Currencies" -
so, I mean, they're leaving no doubt here. They said: "A final type of convertible virtual
currency activity involves a de-centralized convertible virtual currency (1) that has no
central repository and no single administrator, and (2) that persons may obtain by their
own computing or manufacturing effort. A person that creates units of this convertible
virtual currency and uses it to purchase real or virtual goods and services is a user of the
convertible virtual currency and not subject to regulation as a money transmitter."
full member
Activity: 308
Merit: 102


You forgot to change the difficulty.

I got this difficulty from https://blockchain.info/stats.  Should I use a different one?


Unless you have the unit in hand ready to hash, the difficulty needs to be adjusted with probable future rate.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1002


You forgot to change the difficulty.

I got this difficulty from https://blockchain.info/stats.  Should I use a different one?
full member
Activity: 308
Merit: 102

Don't be upset. Just run proper calculations with http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ taking into account a) current difficult, b) difficulty projection based on last two weeks increase, c) profitability decline, d) hashrate taking into account you won't get 24/7 uptime

You will see that 99% it will be impossible to get 250BTC back in 50 days with batch 2 Avalon.

I have run a calculation from this page.
I entered these numbers:

Conversion Rate: 79.99 (The limit sell value on BitFloor at this time.)
Hash rate (MHash/s): 65,000.00 (the advertised rate)
Electricity rate (USD/kWh): 0.08192 (The expensive winter rate.)
Power consumption (W): 650
Cost of Mining Hardware: $1499 (Is there a page that is all BTC based?  I don't need to have USD involved)

Results
Hardware break even:  4 days
Net Profit first time frame (3 months): 31928.05 USD
$31,928.05 / 250 portions = $127.71 / portion = $127.71 paid for bitcoin = $127 / 77.99

That is 63% interest paid in 90 days.  This is not guaranteed.  It is just some numbers plugged into the suggested web page.  It is an illustration for your amusement only.  Things will go wrong.  Things always go wrong.






You forgot to change the difficulty.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1002

Don't be upset. Just run proper calculations with http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ taking into account a) current difficult, b) difficulty projection based on last two weeks increase, c) profitability decline, d) hashrate taking into account you won't get 24/7 uptime

You will see that 99% it will be impossible to get 250BTC back in 50 days with batch 2 Avalon.

I have run a calculation from this page.
I entered these numbers:

Conversion Rate: 79.99 (The limit sell value on BitFloor at this time.)
Hash rate (MHash/s): 65,000.00 (the advertised rate)
Electricity rate (USD/kWh): 0.08192 (The expensive winter rate.)
Power consumption (W): 650
Cost of Mining Hardware: $1499 (Is there a page that is all BTC based?  I don't need to have USD involved)

Results
Hardware break even:  4 days
Net Profit first time frame (3 months): 31928.05 USD
$31,928.05 / 250 portions = $127.71 / portion = $127.71 paid for bitcoin = $127 / 77.99

That is 63% interest paid in 90 days.  This is not guaranteed.  It is just some numbers plugged into the suggested web page.  It is an illustration for your amusement only.  Things will go wrong.  Things always go wrong.



hero member
Activity: 816
Merit: 1000
Excellent, thank you for the details.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1002
Really don't want to screw your post, but at least one of the auctions looks very scammy because of the bidding pattern. 250BTC is a high price indeed, and those auctions aren't solid enough to base the price on them imo.

I think you could share with us a scenario you expect based on difficulty projection and profitability decline per year factor - if the difficulty goes x2 there you go with 2.5BTC per day, with difficulty increasing week by week, imo that's the more likely scenario.

I don't want to defend any particular ROI scenario at all.  That is an area of pure speculation.


Right there. Regardless of what the payback period is, this offer still allows people like myself to be a part of mining (although not a very hands-on one) and be an active part of the bitcoin community.  What method will you use for bookkeeping and payouts?  Can we request payouts to a particular address?  Do you plan to list on btct.co and allow shares to be traded? 

Thanks,
Dave

If those answers are not in the original post, I have failed as a writer.  That's bad, bad news for a professor.

I will use the blockchain.  It will tell who paid, how much they paid, and who I should send the payments back to.  It is the full audit trail, and it is viewable by anyone.  You are anonymous or not, under your control.

In time, I will write some software to directly read the blockchain and construct the payout TXns.  In the present, I will just read on the web and click the mouse endlessly to make things go.

The link in the original post leads to a transaction on blockchain.info that shows when I paid for the avalon.  If you create a new payment address that is only used for this venture, the blockchain.info report on that address will show how much you have paid in, and how much your have received back.

I will only pay to the address that bought into the venture.  I can manually cash out someone, and they can sign up with a new address, and that will accomplish an address change.  For a large group, this will become very tedious.

You can look at the signup address, 17Pq8oPtk8rikxZhF1wENFqR9YtDyLyr8E, in blockchain to see how many people have signed up.  It's a pretty quick read right now  Undecided

I don't envision a way to trade this offer.



legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1002
Don't be upset. Just run proper calculations with http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ taking into account a) current difficult, b) difficulty projection based on last two weeks increase, c) profitability decline, d) hashrate taking into account you won't get 24/7 uptime

You will see that 99% it will be impossible to get 250BTC back in 50 days with batch 2 Avalon.

I hope I don't come across as upset.
That calculator is a cool web page.  Thanks for sharing it.
I don't really have any idea of what numbers to plug into it.
My electricity rates are below 8.2¢ / kwh.

hero member
Activity: 816
Merit: 1000
Really don't want to screw your post, but at least one of the auctions looks very scammy because of the bidding pattern. 250BTC is a high price indeed, and those auctions aren't solid enough to base the price on them imo.

I think you could share with us a scenario you expect based on difficulty projection and profitability decline per year factor - if the difficulty goes x2 there you go with 2.5BTC per day, with difficulty increasing week by week, imo that's the more likely scenario.

I don't want to defend any particular ROI scenario at all.  That is an area of pure speculation.


Right there. Regardless of what the payback period is, this offer still allows people like myself to be a part of mining (although not a very hands-on one) and be an active part of the bitcoin community.  What method will you use for bookkeeping and payouts?  Can we request payouts to a particular address?  Do you plan to list on btct.co and allow shares to be traded? 

Thanks,
Dave
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1002
There are various estimates of the bitcoin based daily income for the Avalon.  I think the consensus is between BTC 3 & BTC 7.  

This is bitcoin, bitcoin is about math. There is no consensus and there is no BTC7. RIGHT NOW, a 3 module avalon should make 4.9 per day. After batch 2 ships, it will be 3.5 a day, after batch 3 2.2 a day. This is assuming nobody else gets anything else on the network. batch 1 of BFL and stage 2 of ASICminer will knock it down to about 1.22 per day.

I'm not here to step on your toes, just trying to keep an honest miner honest.

jgarzik reported BTC 7.1 from his batch #1 unit in #bitcoin-dev yesterday or so, that's where I got that number.

1.22 / day / 250 means return your money in 204 days.
If that is too slow, don't buy in.  Don't use my estimates, get your own.  Your mileage may vary.
BLF will deliver overwhelming computational power in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr,
They may be redesigned to have ventricles. (Jerry Pournelle, if you are old enough to remember.)



jgarzik found 2 blocks in 1 day, and made BTC50 in 1 day, why aren't you including that in your numbers.

Those numbers suggest a full payback in 5 days with the 1/250 share model.  Thanks for mentioning them.

I don't think I will have income that high.  He was first, there will be 900 Avalons online when I am operational.

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1002
Really don't want to screw your post, but at least one of the auctions looks very scammy because of the bidding pattern. 250BTC is a high price indeed, and those auctions aren't solid enough to base the price on them imo.

I think you could share with us a scenario you expect based on difficulty projection and profitability decline per year factor - if the difficulty goes x2 there you go with 2.5BTC per day, with difficulty increasing week by week, imo that's the more likely scenario.

I don't want to defend any particular ROI scenario at all.  That is an area of pure speculation.

A lot of bright people read these forums.  Feel free to quote one of the more credible projections and build a case for a lower price.

I assume it is fairly transparent that I want to fund an Avalon Batch #3 purchase, but my only asset at the moment is the Batch #2 confirmed purchase.  I am willing to consider any reasonable changes to this offer with a view of producing liquidity soon.

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