Avalon ASIC pay back | Bitcointalksearch.org

SebastianJu

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Quote from: sgravina on April 02, 2013, 05:26:12 AM

I have a batch 1 Avalon. It will not ever return my initial investment. I estimate it will make about 80 BTC over the next 6 months. But I paid 108 BTC for it.

Yet it is worse than that. I bought from all three manufacturers. Because I was hoping to get whichever one delivered first. I paid about 680 BTC for that. One company went broke and paid me back a small fraction of what I spent in BTC (because of the exchange rate inflation). Avalon just delivered one of my units and of course Butterfly labs has yet to deliver.

In dollars if I had saved my BTC they would be worth $70,000. This would have been a much better move.

So those of you who didn't buy Avalons are doing much better than those of us who did.

Sorry to hear that. Allow me to do you a favor and cut your loss. I will buy your avalon for 108BTC plus shipping.
Deal?

jubalix

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Quote from: mrb on April 02, 2013, 02:41:48 AM

Quote from: jubalix on March 29, 2013, 12:24:11 AM

you make a good point, by mining now at a low rate, they ensure market exists for thier sales
buuut it still does not stack up why they would bother selling

You don't understand the whole context of the Avalon project. It is very simple:

Avalon was started by 2 young engineers who had almost no money (*), and no or little experience designing ASICs. They had no choice but to sell pre-orders at a low price (due to the overall risk and uncertainty of the project) to acquire the initial capital required to develop a 110nm chip and the machines ($200-300k or so). Once they successfully manufactured the first batch of Avalons, they honored the pre-orders because they are ethical persons. If they had say at this point "f*ck you, customers, we will mine with your hardware and not ship it to you", this would have enraged the community, destroyed their reputation (so no batch #2 and no batch #3 sales revenues for them), and it would have possibly disrupted confidence in Bitcoin due to 2 guys controlling the majority of the hashing power, possibly destroying the exchange rate and their potential mining profits.

That's why. If you knew the 2 guys, you would see they care deeply about the future of Bitcoin and about ethics.

(*) ngzhang did not make that much profits from previous FPGA sales, and yifu did not bring capital AFAICS.

ok so the insured there with batch 1 market then sold into it with batch 2 and maybe 3....good makes sense now

Rampion

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Quote from: Rampion on April 02, 2013, 09:24:43 AM

Quote from: sgravina on April 02, 2013, 08:53:46 AM

The protocol tries to generate 50,400 bitcoins for every difficulty change. For the next difficulty the network will be about 60,000 GHashes/sec. My avalon will be about 65 Ghashes/sec. Thus I will get 65/60,000 * 50,400 bitcoins = 54.6 bitcoins. Thus, my spreadsheet above is wrong. If the network grows 20% durring the next difficulty I will only get 80% * 54.6 = 44 bbitcoins. Still alot more than I said this morning.

44 bitcoins is a lot. But I need to make 108 to recover what I spent on the thing.

I will try to figure this out again when I get home tonight.

Sam

I can guarantee that you will get a ROI in much much less than you expect.

No need to play with spreadsheets, just use: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

You will see that even with a x10 difficulty increase during the next 12 months (0.1 in the "profitability yearly decline" variable) and with less than 90% uptime (60GHs instead of 68GHs), your machine will ROI in BTC in aprox. 30 days

For batch 3 customer this looks different:

20 million starting difficulty
650 watt
cost of mining machine 8000$
0.1 profitabilty yearly decline
60ghash
66days to break even

12k first 12 month profit
if the price is stable at 100$ next 12month.

thats a massive bummer, considering that #2 customers will make a killing. if you get your batch 3 order early you might get faster break even, but not in terms of bitcoins, only in terms of money. in that case, not buying batch 3 would have been more intelligent.

I do not know what kind of amazing investments you do with your fiat, but a 66 days ROI is amazing. Even a 180 days ROI is acceptable as far as I'm concerned.

Then, I do not really care about USD profit estimations. First, because it is too much of a gamble. Secondly (and more important), because I bought a mining machine in BTC to generate BTC while supporting the network. As long as electricity gets paid, I really don't care about BTC/USD.

Rampion

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Quote from: sgravina on April 02, 2013, 08:53:46 AM

The protocol tries to generate 50,400 bitcoins for every difficulty change. For the next difficulty the network will be about 60,000 GHashes/sec. My avalon will be about 65 Ghashes/sec. Thus I will get 65/60,000 * 50,400 bitcoins = 54.6 bitcoins. Thus, my spreadsheet above is wrong. If the network grows 20% durring the next difficulty I will only get 80% * 54.6 = 44 bbitcoins. Still alot more than I said this morning.

44 bitcoins is a lot. But I need to make 108 to recover what I spent on the thing.

I will try to figure this out again when I get home tonight.

Sam

I can guarantee that you will get a ROI in much much less than you expect.

No need to play with spreadsheets, just use: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

You will see that even with a x10 difficulty increase during the next 12 months (0.1 in the "profitability yearly decline" variable) and with less than 90% uptime (60GHs instead of 68GHs), your machine will ROI in BTC in aprox. 30 days

sgravina

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The protocol tries to generate 50,400 bitcoins for every difficulty change. For the next difficulty the network will be about 60,000 GHashes/sec. My avalon will be about 65 Ghashes/sec. Thus I will get 65/60,000 * 50,400 bitcoins = 54.6 bitcoins. Thus, my spreadsheet above is wrong. If the network grows 20% durring the next difficulty I will only get 80% * 54.6 = 44 bbitcoins. Still alot more than I said this morning.

44 bitcoins is a lot. But I need to make 108 to recover what I spent on the thing.

I will try to figure this out again when I get home tonight.

Sam

pikeadz

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Quote from: sgravina on April 02, 2013, 05:26:12 AM

I have a batch 1 Avalon. It will not ever return my initial investment. I estimate it will make about 80 BTC over the next 6 months. But I paid 108 BTC for it.

Yet it is worse than that. I bought from all three manufacturers. Because I was hoping to get whichever one delivered first. I paid about 680 BTC for that. One company went broke and paid me back a small fraction of what I spent in BTC (because of the exchange rate inflation). Avalon just delivered one of my units and of course Butterfly labs has yet to deliver.

In dollars if I had saved my BTC they would be worth $70,000. This would have been a much better move.

So those of you who didn't buy Avalons are doing much better than those of us who did.

I assume you are talking about never seeing return on your ENTIRE investment (from all 3 manufacturers), because your Avalon is going to pay for itself in a few months.

johnyj

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Nr.1 - Invest fiat, get BTC
Nr.2 - Invest fiat, get fiat
Nr.3 - Invest BTC, get BTC
Nr.4 - Invest BTC, get fiat

Of these 4 moves, Nr.1 is the most preferred, Nr.3 is exchange rate independant, Nr.4 is the worst option

I heard about 75000 chips from BFL, so that is 600Th, if all that power can reach market in 6 months and push the total network hash rate to 1000TH, an Avalon still can make 66/1,000,000*3600=0.24 bitcoin per day

And so far ASIC miner only deployed 6TH

sgravina

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Quote from: needbmw on April 02, 2013, 06:08:47 AM

My Avalon may be broken, but it paid for itself (in BTC terms) in 18 days... Huh

You did what I was trying to do. You got one of the first ones. That was the lottery ticket I was buying. I, unfortunately got one of the last batch 1 shipped.

Nobody will ever have that happen to them again. You were lucky to earn what you did, unlucky to have it break while it is still profitable.

needbmw

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My Avalon may be broken, but it paid for itself (in BTC terms) in 18 days... Huh

sgravina

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Activity: 451

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I assumed the network would grow 10% each difficulty. That each difficulty would take 14 days. These are not well justified forecasts but they are easy. Some day I will try harder.

network     me     btc earned
4/7/13   254000     72.3     14.34614173
4/21/13   454000     72.3 8.026255507
5/5/13   499400     72.3     7.296595915
5/19/13   549340     72.3     6.633269014
6/2/13   604274     72.3     6.030244558
6/16/13   664701.4     72.3     5.482040507
6/30/13   731171.54    72.3     4.983673188
7/14/13   804288.694   72.3     4.530611989
7/28/13   884717.5634   72.3     4.118738172
8/11/13   973189.3197   72.3     3.744307429
8/25/13   1070508.252   72.3     3.403915845
9/8/13   1177559.077   72.3     3.09446895
9/22/13   1295314.985   72.3     2.813153591
10/6/13   1424846.483   72.3     2.557412355
10/20/13   1567331.131   72.3     2.324920323

total 79.38 BTC in six months

dogie

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Quote from: sgravina on April 02, 2013, 05:26:12 AM

I have a batch 1 Avalon. It will not ever return my initial investment. I estimate it will make about 80 BTC over the next 6 months. But I paid 108 BTC for it.

Yet it is worse than that. I bought from all three manufacturers. Because I was hoping to get whichever one delivered first. I paid about 680 BTC for that. One company went broke and paid me back a small fraction of what I spent in BTC (because of the exchange rate inflation). Avalon just delivered one of my units and of course Butterfly labs has yet to deliver.

In dollars if I had saved my BTC they would be worth $70,000. This would have been a much better move.

So those of you who didn't buy Avalons are doing much better than those of us who did.

You must be the most negative person in the history of the universe to seriously believe that. Its like not wearing a hardhat because you're convinced a piano is going to fall on you, which you're resigned to, and have no will to move out of the way.

Rampion

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Quote from: sgravina on April 02, 2013, 05:26:12 AM

I have a batch 1 Avalon. It will not ever return my initial investment. I estimate it will make about 80 BTC over the next 6 months. But I paid 108 BTC for it.

Yet it is worse than that. I bought from all three manufacturers. Because I was hoping to get whichever one delivered first. I paid about 680 BTC for that. One company went broke and paid me back a small fraction of what I spent in BTC (because of the exchange rate inflation). Avalon just delivered one of my units and of course Butterfly labs has yet to deliver.

In dollars if I had saved my BTC they would be worth $70,000. This would have been a much better move.

So those of you who didn't buy Avalons are doing much better than those of us who did.

What are the maths backing up your statements? What is the yearly decline in profitability you are considering?

needbmw

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Quote from: sgravina on April 02, 2013, 05:26:12 AM

I have a batch 1 Avalon. It will not ever return my initial investment. I estimate it will make about 80 BTC over the next 6 months.

Hmm, check your math, one Avalon now makes more than 5BTC/24h, and will make say 4BTC/day for 10-14 days after next difficulty change.

sgravina

sr. member

Activity: 451

Merit: 250

I have a batch 1 Avalon. It will not ever return my initial investment. I estimate it will make about 80 BTC over the next 6 months. But I paid 108 BTC for it.

Yet it is worse than that. I bought from all three manufacturers. Because I was hoping to get whichever one delivered first. I paid about 680 BTC for that. One company went broke and paid me back a small fraction of what I spent in BTC (because of the exchange rate inflation). Avalon just delivered one of my units and of course Butterfly labs has yet to deliver.

In dollars if I had saved my BTC they would be worth $70,000. This would have been a much better move.

So those of you who didn't buy Avalons are doing much better than those of us who did.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: mrb on April 02, 2013, 02:41:48 AM

Quote from: jubalix on March 29, 2013, 12:24:11 AM

you make a good point, by mining now at a low rate, they ensure market exists for thier sales
buuut it still does not stack up why they would bother selling

You don't understand the whole context of the Avalon project. It is very simple:

Avalon was started by 2 young engineers who had almost no money (*), and no or little experience designing ASICs. They had no choice but to sell pre-orders at a low price (due to the overall risk and uncertainty of the project) to acquire the initial capital required to develop a 110nm chip and the machines ($200-300k or so). Once they successfully manufactured the first batch of Avalons, they honored the pre-orders because they are ethical persons. If they had say at this point "f*ck you, customers, we will mine with your hardware and not ship it to you", this would have enraged the community, destroyed their reputation (so no batch #2 and no batch #3 sales revenues for them), and it would have possibly disrupted confidence in Bitcoin due to 2 guys controlling the majority of the hashing power, possibly destroying the exchange rate and their potential mining profits.

That's why. If you knew the 2 guys, you would see they care deeply about the future of Bitcoin and about ethics.

(*) ngzhang did not make that much profits from previous FPGA sales, and yifu did not bring capital AFAICS.

this post should be stickied so everybody asking "why Avalon is selling a money printing machine"? Can easily find an answer

mrb

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Quote from: jubalix on March 29, 2013, 12:24:11 AM

you make a good point, by mining now at a low rate, they ensure market exists for thier sales
buuut it still does not stack up why they would bother selling

You don't understand the whole context of the Avalon project. It is very simple:

Avalon was started by 2 young engineers who had almost no money (*), and no or little experience designing ASICs. They had no choice but to sell pre-orders at a low price (due to the overall risk and uncertainty of the project) to acquire the initial capital required to develop a 110nm chip and the machines ($200-300k or so). Once they successfully manufactured the first batch of Avalons, they honored the pre-orders because they are ethical persons. If they had say at this point "f*ck you, customers, we will mine with your hardware and not ship it to you", this would have enraged the community, destroyed their reputation (so no batch #2 and no batch #3 sales revenues for them), and it would have possibly disrupted confidence in Bitcoin due to 2 guys controlling the majority of the hashing power, possibly destroying the exchange rate and their potential mining profits.

That's why. If you knew the 2 guys, you would see they care deeply about the future of Bitcoin and about ethics.

(*) ngzhang did not make that much profits from previous FPGA sales, and yifu did not bring capital AFAICS.

jubalix

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Quote from: marra on March 28, 2013, 03:15:50 PM

Quote from: jubalix on March 26, 2013, 07:06:49 PM

Hey I do not understand one thing

how long does it take for a AA to make back the 75 BTC

I really don't get why AA would not be used by the manufacture to mine, if they were worth more than 75 BTC.

Can some one enlighten me?

They have non stop 1 THASH on and testing. Why would they need more units? To destroy the market? $50k per week they make with machines that are currently testing by my rough estimation. Perhaps someone has more detailed info.

you make a good point, by mining now at a low rate, they ensure market exists for thier sales

buuut it still does not stack up why they would bother selling

S M I L Y

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https://www.chynge.net/

I believe anyone who currently has an ASIC on the way will be making plenty of profit!

Its the people who will be ordering in about 6 months that will be fighting for the small profits. Just like GPUs were about a year ago.

johnyj

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Quote from: Syke on March 27, 2013, 09:41:50 PM

Stop right there. No way is BFL shipping 100 units a day right off the bat. They've never pulled off that kind of throughput.

This is a conservative estimation, I've seen some numbers as high as 400 units per day

marra

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Quote from: jubalix on March 26, 2013, 07:06:49 PM

Hey I do not understand one thing

how long does it take for a AA to make back the 75 BTC

I really don't get why AA would not be used by the manufacture to mine, if they were worth more than 75 BTC.

Can some one enlighten me?

They have non stop 1 THASH on and testing. Why would they need more units? To destroy the market? $50k per week they make with machines that are currently testing by my rough estimation. Perhaps someone has more detailed info.

Topic: Avalon ASIC pay back (Read 5293 times)