Topic: Avalon ASIC pay back - page 2. (Read 5293 times)

Asicminer currently has only 6.5TH online. Or where do you have your numbers from? Its uncertain how much will go online because unfortunately there are problems with power supply so that asicminer decided to sell some machines by auction.

And avalon users are mining at 20TH already? Really?

I really would like to know when bfl is shipping. But the lack of information about what they are doing at the moment and what the problems are, whos the problem or whatever keeps me from investing there. They broke too many dates and still dont communicate enough for that.

Stop right there. No way is BFL shipping 100 units a day right off the bat. They've never pulled off that kind of throughput.

Current total bitcoin network hash power

GPU+FPGA - 25T
ASICMINER - 12T
AVALON batch 1 - 20T
About 60T

This hash power will remain more or less unchanged until middle of April

Later part of April:

AVALON Batch 2 - 40T
ASICMINER 50T first deployment - 20T
About 60T

consider the shipping time, until mid-May, total hash power rise to 120T，double the current difficulty, so even the first batch 3 user will start with a maximum 2.4 coin daily return

May：
AVALON batch 3 - 33T (500 UNIT)
ASIC MINER another 30T
Add 63T

BFL should be able to ship around this time, suppose that shipping speed is 100 rig per day, average 40Gh, then in one month 3000 rigs delivered，that's 120T.

So for whole May the network hash power will reach 305T，5x current difficulty, avalon batch 3 user can get about 1 coin per day

June：
BFL will add another 120T，total 420T，about 7x current difficulty

July：
ASICMINER's 200T deployed, even AVALON won't make new delivery, BFL add 120T，740T total can be reached，12x current difficulty

After that the difficulty increase will slowdown due to large existing hash power base, and the ROI for mining equipment will become much worse: For an Avalon you can expect 0.4 BTC per day, and that return is shrinking slowly every 2 week

But there is some uncertainty about BFL's delivery, if they could not deliver at that speed before July, then Avalon will have enough good chance to ROI quickly

Don't forget everyone gets hurt when the difficulty goes up but if you have a long enough time horizon, the box should ROI.  12 months is fine if that is what it takes.

I am concerned about ASICMINER and their growth to 200 TH.  If it is indeed true and so far they seem to be on schedule, the Avalons likely will still break even but the ROI time will be much more uncertain.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1604192

I hope for the end-user sake, the Avalon team can get the machines out faster with the new equipment they're putting in!

Well, I bought my Avalon in BTC, and I want a ROI in BTC. I don't give a damn about btc/fiat exchange rate.

Except this time the gold can't get put into the banks, or confiscated.

and yet they are selling AA's for BTC

so they don't seem to worried about that.

you guys are also assuming profitability based on current prices. If indeed we are in a huge btc bubble and it pops...avy may very well end up making not much / day. Meaning that .5BTC could be nearly worthless =( and that would suck.

Bingo.

75BTC is guaranteed money right now for Avalon. It's also about 5x the price of the first batch at current BTC prices.

The ones selling the spades during gold rushes makes the most.

Well, BFL could also hit the market in the meanwhile. But I surely doubt it

When we ordered our Batch 1 Avalon in September, we started from an ROI of more than 6 months, as we had to accept that BFL and BAsic will be long on the market. And now here you talking about a risk if the ROI could be 1-3 months! Hello people! 

The thing is that is very difficult to make long-term projections on hashrate, this is why an estimatetion of "3 months for ROI" doesn't sounds that good in bitcoin world nowadays, while in the "fiat" world a 3 months ROI is an increadible deal.

While you wait for batch #3, 2.5 months can pass. 3 months from that other players could be adding THs to the network, and difficulty could just skyrocket.

Paying 20BTC for a 65GHs machine you will receive in 2.5 months or less is almost a no-brainer. Paying 75BTC is risky if you are in only for the profits, it's very likely that you will profit much more HOLDING those bitcoins.

Even at 1btc a day mined thats less than 3 months back of the 75btc, even 0.5btc a day is a good deal.  Or are you talking about the reward with mining with more than 1 avalon?

if you would have a machine which could produce diamonds the size of a child's head - would you have interest to flood the market with it?

I just don't buy this...no one rationally does that in a commercial concern....

they must be mining the crap out th BC before they sell them.
[/quote]

Avalon ASICs are manufacturing at least 100TH/sec of mining resource. That's a comfortable majority of the network. Confidence drops in the bitcoin network because one entity is in control. The price of bitcoin plummets because no one wants any part of a tainted network. Avalon get thousands of coins worth $0.0000001.

From a commercial perspective, those working in the bitcoin currency are sensitive to the public's confidence in the currency. Avalon would be cutting their own throat if they mined with no competition.

Even 2 Bitcoins per day， it will only cost you less than 2 months to get the investment back. Don't forget，the price is still rising and we still have 3 years of current payment of 25 Bitcoin per block.

How many avalons do you have? My calculations show that 2 avalons should be making about 9 coins a day. But that's in perfect world...

Mainly for the decentralization of bitcoin.
[/quote]

I just don't buy this...no one rationally does that in a commercial concern....

they must be mining the crap out th BC before they sell them.