Topic: Avoid Procrastination, Buy Bitcoin And Prepare For The Next Halving. - page 3. (Read 1431 times)

Investing in Bitcoin is both exhilarating and terrifying, like visiting a previously undiscovered country. Your confidence in the bitcoin market has been bolstered by the knowledge that you have other revenue streams to choose from. Fear of the unknown, which is ingrained in a person's DNA, no longer exists.

However, keep in mind that not everyone enjoys your level of strength or experiences your current circumstances. There are a lot of hesitating individuals right now attempting to figure out if they should join the Bitcoin crowd. They shudder at the prospect of financial ruin. Although our journey's foundation was based on research and planning, it is crucial to keep in mind that we, too, began in the dark

I don't know about the others but I find it easy to buy bitcoins at low prices and can continue to live my life at a normal rate because I have multiple sources of income. Others are still in doubt about their potential financial growth with bitcoins and they are still pending their decision to buy bitcoins because they thought they might not get their capital if the price will decrease again. Well! these things are not new to us because we've been to their place before and most of us took time to consider investing for the first time the result is mostly positive because we also took our time to research and to know what the right thing to do is before buying bitcoins.

I really don't think it should even be called greed. Perhaps I can say it's just a lack of good investment knowledge, just like you said that mostly unexperienced newbie Bitcoiners will more likely act in such a way.

Just imagine that, based on the experience I have had with Bitcoin since 2019 until now, I wouldn't really be agitated about when and when not to buy Bitcoin. If I bought Bitcoin at any price, I wouldn't really feel any regrets because I know how volatile the price can be, and I still know that even if it goes below $30k, it will definitely go above that too. That's why we have the DCA strategy, so if you feel the BTC price is so high, you can buy some fraction while waiting to see if the price can still drop a bit.

Current Bitcoin halving countdown left 270 days and seems excited for investing right now and earn profit later when closing with halving, due positive progress with last edition Bitcoin halving, I believe Bitcoin will up to higher price when near with halving and my predicting with Bitcoin can raise to $60,000. Bitcoin have dropped to $15,000 and current price today success wake up above $30,000 and not really difficult before near with halving Bitcoin will up to $60,000.

Its right time today, buy Bitcoin before late and invest as much possible due many positive progress one day later when halving almost close, don't be late for investing in bitcoin actually with halving moment come every four years and need waiting longer time to get halving bitcoin moment.

A very good and encouraging post over all, but just to point out a few mistakes, (forgive me if other or another user have pointed this out previously) Bitcoin halving happens or comes around in every four years circle, not every year as you said, though i believe its just a minor mistake you made there, not as a result of misinformation or what ever.

It is commonly said that we should be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful, those who took the bold step to buy bitcoin when the price was around 15k are all swimming in good profit right now, and those who buy now are also going to be swimming in good profit as soon as the major bull run hits, so now is a good time to invest for those still hanging around and looking..

By the way, i think we should always emphasize on the fact that its not a law or mandate given any where that there must be a bull run at every halving, so investors should always endeavor to only invest what they can afford to lose, don't go selling your house or only car because you want to invest in bitcoin, always invest as much as you can comfortably lose.

I am intrigued by your prediction that the price might exceed $100k in the next halving. As we know, predictions in the world of cryptocurrency should be approached with caution, given the market's inherent unpredictability. However, according to https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/, the price tend to go even lower especially around the halving time, but if you would hold for the long-run, dont live by pay check and dont really care about noise along the way. I believe the best approach we could take is to DCA.

Delay in taking any action is not a good sign, So complete those steps as soon as possible. People who are related to cryptocurrency are mostly interested in investing. But they don't make that investment at the right time but focus more on it after the time is over. I think it's best to invest in Bitcoin whenever it's announced and do a thorough market analysis. We've seen the Bitcoin market go through a one-time high and turn into a bull market. However, even if the Bitcoin market is down now, we are all optimistic that it will rise again later. We know the Bitcoin market is always up and down and traders are able to make their money on it. Following the Bitcoin market today shows that $100,000 is guaranteed when the Bitcoin market turns from a bear market to a bull market again. When Bitcoin starts halving many market changes will happen and Bitcoin price will take all time highs. And we know that Bitcoin market halving happens every four years so Bitcoin halving will start in 2024. and that's why we'll invest in Bitcoin from the current position and hold until the bull market.

DCA makes more sense the earlier that anyone is relatively early in his/her bitcoin investing journey and may well last 10-20 years, depending on goals that might be striven to be achieved, and so if you are wanting to get to an investment that is 20-30 x your yearly salary, you may well start to feel quit close to reaching your goals when you have ONLY achieved an investment portfolio size that is around 5x of your annual salary because you have pretty good ideas that bitcoin could end up going up in value 5x to 20x, and then  you are even closer to your goals, even though each of us has to be careful in terms of measuring our wealth (or the value of our bitcoin) based on mere spot price values when we know that spot price values fluctuate so greatly, and in that regard, we may well be better off to measure the value of our BTC holdings in terms of something more stable (and like a bottom) which would be the 200-week moving average. 

I do attempt to flesh out some of the BTC valuation matters in the third post of my investment ideas thread.

I see it as a complete good idea, better than just waiting for the price to dip before you can buy, which could lead one to lose entirely, but this method will help you to at least have something that you can hold onto for the main time.
 
Money has a way of being spent unexpectedly, like I said above, "Amount set aside for the Bitcoin buying." This money is separate from what one might have on his reserve for needs and wants that might arise, since man's wants are insatiable. If plans are being made properly, there is little to be worried about.


The DCA strategy still remains the best option when we want to talk about Bitcoin accumulation, but I don't see it working on this pattern of buying where the person needs to wait for a dip in order to accumulate his or her desired amount of Bitcoin.

Hmm, an interesting idea but the only side effect I see about this your thought would be the fact that not everyone knows your how to manage their resources quite well and by the way, money has a way of getting involved into other unnecessary things you don't plan for especially when you are just hoping to use it for an upcoming action. But notwithstanding the idea is not bad at all because the ratio of you losing and also maybe having  regret will be at minimal that's if you actually stick to your actual plan of buying with half the  funds and waiting to see how the market turns out (dip) to buy more. But if am to choose I think I will just go with the DCA strategy knowing fully well am heading somewhere and only the thought of adding to my investment by every little fraction will be on my head and that way if the price pumps I gain and if it still dips I continue buying and so doing increasing the amount on my portfolio slowly for the actual mega pump that will profit me.

I don't see that kind of strategy as being greedy; sometimes the person might not be too sure of what will come next in Bitcoin price, and as such, they will just try to play it safe in order not to fall victim to losing, not knowing that the same fear that they don't want to lose their invested capital could also make them not realize the profit they could have possibly made. The Bitcoin investment is always two-way.

But to me, the safest way to make such a buying plan in a situation where one doesn't know what's to come next in price is to share the amount that has been set aside for the Bitcoin buying purpose and use half of it to purchase at the current price, leaving the other half to be used hopefully when the price drops to their expected amount, so that if the price of Bitcoin is to skyrocket, they will not completely regret their action and will not completely regret their action. They will have a little holdings that they can take a small profit from. If the price also drops as they predict, they can buy more and add to what they have accumulated earlier.

And same like your friend there are so many like him who are aslo expecting the price to fall back at 24-26k before  they actually buy because they feel and act greedy by thinking that if they buy it at the actually price now they would be at the loss but like you said no one knows how the price is going to be and hopefully the price might go down as they speculate but the chances of that happening is also  two sided because the price rate can either continue to pump leaving you to either procrastinate more or buy at an even higher price. Sometimes most newbie who are eager to buy after acquiring little knowledge on bitcoin investment are the ones who are mostly victims to such actions.

Some people keep having high hopes for a price dip, and they are believing that if the price dumps, that's when they will buy. I wish they could realise that history doesn't always repeat itself. Bitcoin price movement doesn't usually end up the way we assume it, and if it did, I believe that quite a lot of people would have accumulated a lot more Bitcoin than they already have. The reason why I said so is because I believe there were some people in the past who also had a high hope for the Bitcoin price to fall to their expected price, and earlier before then, they had decided and kept a particular amount of money they wished to spend on buying Bitcoin, but it became quite unfortunate for them that instead of the price going below their expectations, the price kept trending high, and they had no choice but to buy it even at a higher price than what they would have bought it at first had they bought it in the early time. I am not saying it will really happen the way I thought, but it's likely not to also happen the way @seoincorporation is thinking. It is true that there is still more time before the halving, but there is no guarantee of what the price of Bitcoin will specifically be within or after the halving period.


In Bitcoin investment, one doesn't lose anything unless you sell so cheaply. So, even after buying Bitcoin and holding it in your wallet, it doesn't mean you will lose your asset if the price falls below what you paid for it. I gave an example of my friend last year who was waiting for the Bitcoin price to fall to $10k–$12k before he could purchase it because he also believed that the price would drop more, but he was unlucky because Bitcoin did not drop below what he expected and he ended up buying Bitcoin at $20k+ just this year, while he had the opportunity to buy Bitcoin last year when the price was still below $20k.

Frequently, I get confused by the results of the search bar on the forum, and also I realize that doing a broad internet search will not even help to narrow down the retrieval of information to answer specific questions.

The main reason that I was able to get that spreadsheet information was because I had been watching fillippone's MSTR thread, and I knew that he maintained a spreadsheet that was linked to the first post (OP) of the thread.   

Also I realize that sometimes I read information, and then I cannot recall from where I had gotten the information, so I realize that it can sometimes be a bit frustrating to go back and to search.. because sometimes you might hear (or see) information for the first time, and then you don't necessarily know that you might need to refer to such information at a later point in time and you therefore have to try to remember where you had seen (or heard) the information.

We also know that some sources of information are better than others, and there are some forum members who frequently cite from mainstream media sources, and many of us who have been in the bitcoin space recall that some of the mainstream media sources are not very good, and sometimes if we see/recognize a certain way of presenting information about bitcoin, we will realize that the information might not have good sources, so in those cases, sometimes we might feel that we need to go back and search for the sources (or perhaps find other sources for the information in order to attempt to help us to figure out which sources of information might be more credible and/or which version of events we find to be more compelling or persuasive.. and all of us are not necessarily going to agree in regards to which sources of information are more compelling/persuasive, but sometimes if we can at least agree upon the facts, then we might be able to get further in terms of having a more informative conversation that is at least based upon agreed upon facts).

So when is the right time? waiting for bitcoin to return at $16K? what if that doesn't happen again and instead bitcoin continues to rise? is it ultimately when bitcoin is higher than now for example $40k or $50k is also not the right time to buy bitcoin and have to wait until bitcoin returns to the price of $30k as it is today?
Indeed buying on the dip will look quite attractive but we also have to look at the situation. For now I think when you can afford to buy why not because we also have nothing to lose if we are ready to wait because I believe bitcoin will still continue to rise in the coming years.
Maybe the emphasis in this case is strategy and I will not prohibit the buying strategy that you do it's just that things like this I don't want to do because I still like the DCA system even though some people say this price is too high and will still wait at the bottom price it doesn't matter to me to buy now. as for when the price is even lower, yes I still buy with a larger volume.

Thanks for the details. Always amazed at the ability of some users to search for information here on the forum. I once tried to search for something by keyword but was disappointed with the results (I used the forum search bar). The table you provided is just as great (whereas I could only find information on the internet about how many Bitcoins Michael Saylor had in 2021). Looks like I need to take a break.

The last couple of years have been tough, especially if anyone might have front load their investment in 2021... and even bought a lot of coins between $50k-ish and $69k-ish.. so even if they continued buying after severe price drops in May 2022 and thereafter, it may well have taken a bit of extra efforts to bring their average BTC buy prices down to current prices.

Even Michael Saylor started buying in mid 2020 - when BTC prices were around $10k, yet his large subsequent buys in 2021 brought his average price per BTC up quite a bit... so he is currently ONLY barely in profits.

You can see in fillippone's spreadsheet, which also has a link at the beginning of his same thread on the topic of Microstrategies/Saylor.

Another good way to attempt to calculate profitability and how many coins that any of us might have gotten with a decently long term investment strategy into BTC is to look at the Dca.com website in which it tends to show that the longer that any of us has been in the BTC market, the more likely it is going to be profitable, so you can play around with dates (up to 9 years) and amounts in order to try to figure out how many BTC you might have been able to accumulate during your selected period of time. 

So for example, if you had been consistently buying $100 per week of bitcoin for the past 2.5 years, you would barely be profitable with an investment of about $13,300 and an accumulated BTC stash of 0.4468, so at today's prices you would barely be in profits, but if you increase the timeline, then the more and more you would have been in profits with a consistent investment strategy.

Of course, one of the aberrations of any DCA strategy may well be that we are not necessarily ready, willing or able to front load our investment into BTC (or any other asset) because for many people, their income goes up with time, so they are able to invest more and more with the passage of time - yet if the investment (asset class) ends up appreciating in value at a rate that is faster than the dollar losing value (or other investments) then their earliest investments were likely to have had the ability to compound more and more over the years in order to end up causing their overall investment portfolio to have had appreciated in value way more than the amount put into it, and some of that based on the appreciation of their earliest of investments.

Interesting idea. I opened a chart with a timeframe of 1 week, I can even see with the naked eye that if you first bought Bitcoins at the top, say at a price of $69,000 (and continued to buy, keep the same time intervals and identical amounts), then your investment should have already paid off.

Bitcoin is an opportunity of a lifetime, rather than an opportunity of every 4 years because, even though it is likely that the 4 year cycle is going to continue to contribute to UPwards price pressures on BTC, there is no guarantees that bitcoin's price is going to perform in alignment with such halvening cycles...

Yet, at the same time, it seems that historically the longer that anyone invests into bitcoin, the better off that they are likely to be.. so in those kinds of terms, the expression "it's time in the market, NOT timing the market" seems to be very applicable to the bitcoin space.

In other words, it is likely better to get into bitcoin sooner rather than later, and to establish some kind of an ongoing plan that allows you to establish and to build your stake into bitcoin in accordance with your own situation.. that may well end up including accumulation of BTC through a variety of methods that might include DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips.. and of course, once you start to establish a BTC stake, then you are likely to have more options and continue to have more options as long as you are mostly erroring on the side of building your BTC portfolio rather than fucking around with trying to get in and out or to mess with other kinds of trading scenarios that get caught upon trying to figure out the ups and downs of the 4 year cycles and the extent to which they will continue to occur in some kind of a pattern way... and even with all that it could take a person 2, 3, 4 or more cycles to really establish their BTC stash and to really be able to profit, have options and benefit from likely ongoing compounding effects of the likely ongoing upward price pressures within bitcoin, even while there is likely going to continue to be violent BTC price moves that go in both directions.


I agree with everything that you say in the above post, adzino - however, your suggestion that 2-3 years is a long term investment seems misplaced, and also may well keep people thinking in terms of getting in and out of bitcoin within the period of one 4-year cycle, and for those kinds of reasons it is likely better to suggest that their investment timeline is better to be thought of in terms of at least a 4-year timeline and perhaps even quite longer than that.. 4-10 years or more.. and sure there are likely some exceptions in which someone might have specific needs in which they are not able to invest for at least 4-10 years or more, but then they might have to consider to change a bit of how they allot into bitcoin (perhaps taking a smaller position).. and surely there are ways to trade the BTC market which surely are on shorter time-frames, but trading is not really an "investment" practice for the vast majority of normal people, since it takes some special skills to figure out how to benefits from trading without overly risking principle.


Of course, I largely agree with these points, but you have framed the matter a bit strangely, and maybe that is because people frequently frame these kinds of investment allocation matters in weird and nonspecific ways.  There are not very many people who are able to go into bitcoin with 100% of their cash reserves, and for the vast majority of people, they are going to need to have cash on hand and maybe even other investments, so it is likely erroneous to even be saying that they are 100% into bitcoin or any other investment - except maybe if they are saying that they have an investment portfolio, and their investment portfolio is 100% into bitcoin, which seems like it might end up happening from time to time.

Sometimes we might need to flesh out what we mean in term of how aggressive that we might be in an investment, and if we can figure out how much savings/investments that we have totally (what is the size of our networth), and figure out our cashflow and then figure out from there how much we might have available on a monthly basis to be able to put into bitcoin, then those are going to be helpful exercises that also help us to better explain and to be specific in regards to how we are talking about how aggressive that we might be in terms of building our bitcoin holdings.

And, surely you are valid in terms of making your overall criticisms that individuals who try to go into bitcoin really heavily prior to the halvening and then wait to cash out after the halvening, might end up in a kind of problematic kind of approach to how they think about their bitcoin investment and whether or not if they are able to accomplish their goals, which also might be to attempt to acquire more BTC when the price drops back down (presuming that the price might drop back down at some point after it goes up).

Personally, I do believe that it is good to attempt to project out your expected cashflows and then to create a budget for your bitcoin that involves lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dips, and the extent to which anyone might be considering selling BTC in order to buy back lower, I would caution to consider those selling to buy more BTC as being inferior techniques and even inferior ways of thinking about how to accumulate bitcoin - if we presume that a lot of people are likely in BTC accumulation mode - except that a lot of people are so short term in their thinking that they have inabilities to actually think in terms of long term BTC accumulation rather than short-term pleasures that they might get from cashing out some or all of their BTC at various points (which ends up putting them with way fewer - and perhaps no BTC) and more cash, so they feel that they have profited from their transaction in the short-term... which might not end up playing out so well in terms of long term possibilities.. and the way that so many folks end up cashing out way too many BTC too soon, and then they later become bitter in regards to their failure to recognize and appreciate bitcoin as long-term wealth-building strategy.. and it is a matter of proportions in terms of how to feel that you do not have to sell too many BTC too soon or that you do not have to feel that you need to overly stock up on Bitcoin out of hopes that you are going to be able to cash some of that out upon a BTC price run.. which can get you into trouble if the BTC price does not move in the direction that you would like and in the timeline that you would like.


Sure some people are gambling with their bitcoin stash and their approach to bitcoin, and there as you suggested there are dangers in taking a gambling approach to bitcoin that involves overly investing with money that you could not afford to lose in the event that the BTC price does not move in the direction that is expected and within the timeline that had been expected.

At the same time, there are a decently large number of ways to take a fairly assertive and aggressive approach to bitcoin investing without necessarily getting maniacally focused on the need for short-term BTC price moves to the upside and also apportioning BTC investment risks in such a way that you are prepared for either BTC price direction, while expecting that downside scenarios are not as likely as upside scenarios, especially in the longer term and if you can withstand/tolerate that downside scenarios may well end up playing out in the short term - which may well be either opportunities to buy more BTC or at least to NOT sell, even if you might have run out of money to buy more BTC while the price seems to be going down (or staying down) for degrees of DOWNity severity and for periods of time that are much longer than had been anticipated to be possible.

Of course, there are all kinds of people in bitcoin who approach bitcoin from perspectives that may or may not end up paying off for them - and in that regard, each person has to figure out the extent to which s/he considers bitcoin as some kind of a compliment to other investments that they have (such as property, stocks, bonds, commodities) or if they might consider that bitcoin is going to serve as their only investment (besides having cash) in which they are building their wealth to a point in which they consider that further diversification is something that they will likely do later down the road after they have built up their bitcoin investment portfolio to size in which it might start to feel that too much value is in there.. whether that is when the get to an investment portfolio that is 20% of their annual income 100% of their annual income 2-5x of their annual income or some other number in which they determine that they might have too much of their value in one asset (namely bitcoin, which we know to be a quite volatile asset to have a large portion of value into it.. and perhaps considering the extent to which their are back up funds and assets that might be available to draw upon during bitcoin downity periods.. and those other investments likely do not need to be shitcoins .. but instead other asset classes that are less likely to be specifically correlated to bitcoin, which again would be things like property, stocks, bonds and commodities.

Ill-informed? I was just saying that before people buy bitcoin, that they should check the reality around them, that they might not be able to afford to invest in it because they lack the excess money from their paychecks which I think is logical. Of course they are responsible for their own decisions, it doesn't hurt to pitch in ideas so they can further think about their next step. I don't know much about those people that you are talking about but in my opinion, those people are not so different from the clients of the Wallstreet stockbrokers, they may have some knowledge but I don't think I can classify them as someone that knows what they're talking about when it comes to stocks.