Topic: Bad days ahead for the European single currency (Read 2821 times)

Now everything is gone (almost for the moment) so don't exist more such risks for the euro but the if Greece or some other country of Eurozone will go out of European countries which use euro as their currency, euro will suffer to much. It were be in discussion even its existence. Were and yet are to many the articles in internet that explain in details this event. In this point of view I think that if Greece would be already out of Eurozone the value of euro will be decreased, notably with the main currencies (such us dollar, British pound, Swiss franc and Japanese yen). As for being better without Greece I have my doubt. Even I am very critic with them about to many things and with their behavior in these times.

I can't understand why the Greeks are so awful. They had their referendum last Sunday, the whole of Europe was waiting for them to go back to the negotiating table on Monday, but they waited till this late evening to show some proposals. 5 months of bargaining already, and this isn't over, they just made us wait another 4 days. They want a debt reduction? A haircut as some people like to say, I suggest they'll get one, a small one, on the very condition they leave the European Union for good.

The European people and the European currency would be better without them.

it's already going down massively, not soo long before we can touch 1:1 ratio, i believe that in the case of the greece will be out of europe, the price might drop to 0.9 for a short time

Defaults happen all the time, there's nothing revolutionary about it. What's shocking is how the bureaucrats are basically telling people what to vote. "If you don't vote Yes, this will happen to you". Greece just should default at this point, tons of countries have defaulted before, its not the end of the world.

What will happened if greece fails? euro will go up or down?

Do you really think so? Bad days are no doubt ahead for the Eurozone. But there's always a light in the end of the tunnel. Countries round the globe have suffered worse. But then gradually they pick up the mess , clean it up and move on to become stronger,. That's how we need to look at it. We need to have a positive approach towards it. That's how it works.

It does raise the question of where Greece goes if they do decide to leave the Eurozone.
The Russians are willing to welcome them with open arms into the BRICS and it does seem like a good choice if they do leave the European Union and it does explain why the tone seems to be changing in the EU so much for those sanctions.
http://www.ibtimes.com/greece-can-easily-get-funding-brics-bank-russia-1998515

Losing Greece has its pros and cons for Europe. Greece with its unpayable debt was like a dead property which should be getting removed , but Greece is a country itself which should not measured just by its financial terms , but also the sentiment of people living in it. It was a distortion of Europe's principle of keeping all the countries under it intact. Greece lost it , but somewhere the whole Eurozone lost the challenge.

The markets didn't crash, as everyone was expecting a NO vote in the Greek referendum. But it will be wrong to say that the Eurozone is not going to get affected as a result of this.


Most of the tourists to Greece come from countries such as Russia and China, which are outside the Eurozone. So I am not predicting a significant dip in the Greek tourism sector.

There's every reason to be concerned if you are hopeful for a strong Euro.  The Euro-Zone is afraid of what other countries like Greece may do.  It is widely accepted that Greece going back to their own currency is in the best interest of Greece but bad for the Euro because those in charge of the Euro lose money so the Euro does poorer.  And there are other countries that may end up doing what Greece has done.  The Euro Zone will have to reconsider how they address debt collection and debt management if they want all of Europe to participate.

Eurozone is not ganna be shaken by Greece as much as you might think. This country is not important in the bigger picture. They didn't have anything worthy beside tourist attractions.
Greece lost even this because who is gonna visit them now, when crisis is raging? Euro as a currency is safe, I would be more worried about recent news from Asian markets. Huge Asian crisis incoming.

Most debts are paid back 100%. Germany has a lot of debt, and so does Japan, Belgium or France, and these countries have always paid back in full. A few lousy countries in Africa, or Argentina, haven't paid back, and they're now blacklisted everywhere.

Back to the subject, it seems the small reaction we've seen yesterday is already forgotten. Everything looks like it's business as usual. Surprising...

What you said (highlighted) can be said for any fiat currency, it's not an argument that the dollar is superior. Of course I would accept a million USD, but I would also accept a million EUR (which still has a bit higher valuation) - but in both cases I would not hold the fiat - I would buy other assets as soon as possible.

The USD has the biggest network effect now - but there's not much more room for growth, so the magnitude of the USD dominance could also be interpreted as a risk factor.

ya.ya.yo!

Ah, yes. Thanks for explain. I got my answer

Technically losing Greece doesn't look so bad on paper as it gets rid of dead weight, allows tGreece a chance to declare bankruptcy and clean house. Then under a reset they would have good financials and the possiblilty to rejoin the Union at a future date, but the main concern is that Greece is one part of the dead weight with other struggling components in the union that they will need to deal with at a later date so how it impacts the economy will be a good question.
Also leaving the EU might be bad for their passport and border control but that's not certain atm.

I think the US is way safer than the Euro. You can hate on the US all you want, but they are still the most powerful nation ever, with the currency that has the biggest network effect ever. Yes, fiat scam and whatnot, but as long as people keep accepting dollars, the dollar is very real. If Ben printed you 1 million dollar, would you accept it, or would you say "I dont want your debt-based fake money".
That's the thing.
Im not saying all fiats are scams prone to end sooner or later, the question here is if they can extend it for ages.

Obviously, I overestimated the market reactions. € is down 0.5% against the dollar, and the Dax (German index) is down 1.5%. It's been a bad day, but we've seen worse. Note that there was more of a reaction with BTC, which is up about 5% in 24 hours.

Still, this isn't over yet. We're still waiting for a solution to the Greek problem, and nothing's in sight.

I share your concern, but I don't think that the US-dollar is a more secure investment than the Euro. In the end, all fiat currencies will be worthless, because they are constantly inflated.


The effects are not direct, they are indirect: People fear that other countries (Portugal, Spain, France) might collapse as well, since they also have substantial debt burdens. The keyword is "contagion effects" by loosing trust in the safety of government bonds (which are in an epic bubble compared to the debt levels of most western countries). If investors start selling those government bonds, it's possible that governments won't be able to refinance themselves.

ya.ya.yo!

The separation of church of state has many examples historically that prove it to be a good principle. Its beginnings historically can be said to lie within the protestant reformation which gives good examples for why this separation is so important. Later these ideas where further developed in the philosophies of John Locke and Voltaire. It became very important in the American revolution since John Lock's philosophy was important in the thinking of the founding fathers. Thomas Jefferson is often attributed to be the first to use the term as we know it today. You could always read the literature of these individuals which can be very rewarding but of course more time consuming. other wise I would recommend a good historical documentary maybe about the American revolution or the protestant reformation, plenty to be found on YouTube and Bittorent. The first hour of this historical podcast talks about the roots of the protestant reformation as well and is rather entertaining to listen to.

http://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-48-prophets-of-doom/

I can not think of anything more specific at this moment other then Wikipedia or other articles online. The history makes strong points all by itself though, and shows why this is such an important principle in political philosophy. I hope that one day most people will feel the same way about separating the monetary power from the state as well.

These further loans are inevitable for all nations, in time. Maths dictates.

Just checking you and I have read the same page.