Topic: Be careful. (Newbies and others ...) - page 4. (Read 3054 times)

Yes, 70% looks much, but in absolute numbers it's a very small number actually. It's nothing that can justify a 300% price increase. The "boom" in Japan happened mostly at the exchanges like bitFlyer, but that is not sustainable Bitcoin real-world usage but speculation.

Well, then we have to educate them, because light nodes have some vulnerabilities and could, in theory, be "scammed" if their owners don't use some security measures (like checking they're on the right chain). Obviously if you sell low-priced items that's a risk you could take.


Mmh ... where do you see that? In media and real life I had this feeling in 2013 when there were a lot more people interested in Bitcoin than now, I think. The "buzz" was much stronger then. There were lots of shops starting to accept Bitcoin this year, and 2014. Most have ceased to do so, some new ones have appeared, but growth seems slow. It's not that I don't see some growth - mainly in "non-traditional" countries. But again, nothing that justifies a 300% increase in half a year.



Just curiosity: What would this "detaxing" mean in this context? Do the US have a tax for simple monetary transactions, or would this mean people would not have to pay VAT if they pay with BTC?


Unfortunately, I'm 99% sure that you are wrong.

Hard to argue with that... I was just scammed by one. But maybe china is fixing it (assuming they don't kill freedom and rules are more towards reducing scams), then ICOs might become really something!

Indeed. As a noob I agree there is also too much talk about a 5% correction and too little about what can be done to expand bitcoin usage!


What I read from what you say is that there was a >70% increase in less than a year... Japan has passed the law only in April if I am not wrong...
Then again I think nodes are more about communities, maybe universities. I don't think a business knows what a node is used for... Seems like there is more awareness in Germany and US compared to the rest of the world (and surprisingly UK is way down the list...)


Agree here. But then there is a chance that BC is about to go mainstream. I just read that it is likely that US is detaxing BC transactions up to 600$, if that happens that is a big opening the US government is giving to bitcoin. After all, you probably have more bitcoins than I do, so it is good to also hope a bit

You create inconsistency here, I read all of your post. You said you're bullish in long term, and you claim a big drop for bitcoin, even down to $1000. How come then?

I mean how long bitcoin would stay low in case of your scneario is successful?

When do you expect the price of 10k will be reached?

Wow, so much approval of my post, didn't think that

I want to add something about some comments talking about "legalization" of Bitcoin in some countries.

The prime case is Japan. One could expect a booming cryptocurrency real-world market in Japan with a lot of growth of Bitcoin full nodes, with new businesses and services.

But only 60 new full nodes have popped up in the last 9 months or so (I checked it back in January or February, and then there were about 80 nodes in that country). Japan has now 141 Bitcoin full nodes (Source). That's essentially nothing. A small rural village, or five high school classes. Yes, full nodes are not equal to users, but business users should really run a full node.

In my opinion there were the following reasons for the growth in the past year:
- first, Bitcoin was a bit undervalued, at least until early 2016, and so slowly began to grow as confidence rose
- then, the "halving bubble" brought optimism again into the market
- then we had the "ETF bull run", the ETF's failed, but the optimism still was there.
- the ICO bull run (caused by altcoins) in early-to-mid 2017 explains part of the current growth already
- and finally, in August, the "Segwit bull run".

None of these are events are really related to real-world adoption of Bitcoin as a currency. Legalization news are, at least a little bit, as they trigger hope and create opportunities. Bitcoin may slowly grow because of legalization in some countries, but in others (China and Russia, basically) it can lose traction because of stricter regulations.

Good points. Keep in mind that crypto has its own little dot-com bubble of crappy companies right now (*cough* ICOs *cough*). I'm positive that the long-term effect on Bitcoin itself will be limited though.



I think it's less about Schadenfreude and more about preparing newcomers for the worst. Making sure that people don't overreach in their investments and keep a level head. It's all fun and games until the bear market strikes and I don't think many of the new community members are fully aware of what they are potentially getting into. Seeing how some people get skittish when Bitcoin makes as much as a sneeze a reminder like OP's seems well placed.

A stable market needs strong hands and clear heads, everyone loses once things get emotional.

People need to be confident, but should not be over confidence. This will be serving as an issue not only with bitcoin, but the same thinking prevails throughout. So as mentioned invest what you can afford is the right pick than just on over expectations as well over confidence of trying to express themselves high.

People don't like what YOU have to say, so don't try to put a contributing member into the same category as yourself. I quite enjoy reading what d5000 has to say, because after all, it makes sense most of the times. Everyone has his own view on this market, and thus far there haven't been many people in this forum actually pointing out their thoughts in detail. People here have been spoiled with insane increases, and this is obviously a great thing for those having invested early enough, but it can't endlessly keep increasing without falling back heavily at some point. I personally don't really like using the term bearish, which is why I stick to using the term conservative, this till we know how things will play out in November.

The increase in value is 30 times - this is a fantastic phenomenon for the currency of the currency, but not for the crypto currency. Bitcoin has more than once proved the fact that he is developing not like Fiat.

And its development is due to ubiquitous legalization. This was the reason for the price increase.

And I agree with you that the price may decrease because of the next plug we are waiting for in November. But I do not think that it will be significantly

"Perfect for lazy people like me." So am i too? lol

Investing in a long term will keep your money safe, in fact you won't have to worry because you were just hiding your money. All you need to do is just keep your pace and watch until the price go doubled then sell.

Yes, but there is a big reputation gain if and when it will get approved. Maybe you are right, it will improve over time

Don't forget localization. in 2013 if my memory serves me right was almost non existent (english or die)

I am thinking in terms of .com bubble. During that time there were some pretty crappy companies that had much less usage and utility than bitcoin with billions of market cap. Not comparable to our crypto space, where just a handful pass the billion. And regarding the growth, don't forget BC never had an 'IPO' or an analyst that said... this should start from 5000$. It started from 0...With 0 investments.

For the rest I guess mine are only opinions to balance the overly pessimistic view of the OP (which might well happen). But when I hear that bitcoin will go down to 200$ I can't but think that there is a bit of schadenfreude (again to use the op language) because noobs (including me as I never really invested in bc before) did not pass those painful 3 years.

I think with this post I will start assessing if how long I can hold my bitcoin savings since there's a lots of possibilities that this statement will happen anytime soon
and with the current earnings that I've got maybe its better to exchange the half of it into fiat for some assurance then the other half can be stored inside my btc
wallet for long term hold.

There are lots of noobs coming in, convinced that bitcoin will make them millionaires. And towards the top of a bubble, you often get this emotional uninformed money pushing it up the final leg.

Interesting.  Most of the posts here are actually quite reasonable.  That could suggest that the bear market is getting closer, because the general sentiment isn't favouring crazy short-term predictions of >$10000.
There's a clear gap between a reasonable warning that is being given here and your points, which are just the same claim that Bitcoin will crash extremely soon.

You always post exactly the same thing no matter how far the price has actually gone up.  Go back two years and look at yourself.

What you write makes a lots of sense and sounds very reasonable. But markets tend to move more by emotions than by reason. I would not be surprised if it went down a lot, but neither if it raised much too.

I agree and have said so in other threads,  but somehow I don't  think
we've hit the top yet. I say that because bitcoin didn't drop nearly
as much as I thought it would when we got the latest correction. I
figured we'd drop to the $3000s or lower, and that didn't happen.

The market is still bullish, but we are due for a serious drop.  I don't have
the stomach to short it.

A few counterpoints to ragnar0k's additions:


Most likely already priced in, unfortunately, so might not help us short term. In the long term however, very bullish of course.



The infrastructure has come a looong way since 2013, that is very true. However definitely not the only reason for the crashes of days of yore.



What do you mean?

Regarding yield I don't think any wall street stock has seen growth like Bitcoin in such a short timeframe, not even during times of bubble.

Regarding market cap Bitcoin is already in the ball park of S&P 500 companies. Unless you mean the whole market of course



I believe it when I see it. But true, things are moving in the right direction.