I will tell you the secret to getting rich on Wall Street. You try to be greedy when others are fearful. And you try to be fearful when others are greedy.
-Warren Buffet
I don't know how I feel about that quotation.
Warren Buffett didn't invent that concept or mentality. Its a fundamental observation many investors, traders and businessman have repeated over the centuries. Some of the best investment opportunities were to be found during the crisis of 2008 when bank stocks were severely underpriced--before the bailout bill was announced. Bitcoin would have been a good investment around 2014 when silk road was closed and china cracked down on exchanges. The idea that opportunities abound under circumstances where people are fearful like the 2008 crisis or bitcoin's 2014-esque crash is a common theme throughout history.
AFAIK Buffett made his fortune utilizing long term HODL investment strategies based on market and business fundamentals. He wasn't someone to make spur of the moment deals or profit from times when the market was at its lowest and future prospects were bleak.
What happens when people are both greedy and fearful? That's a question which interests me. It could be something to be answer in order to accurately anticipate which direction markets and economies are headed.
I think in this context, greedy and fearful are mutually exclusive. If you are acting greedy, you are acting without fear of loss. If you fear loss, you aren't acting greedy. Greed ignores risk while fear inhibits risk taking.
As for the previous points, acting greedy doesn't mean your decision is spur of the moment. It just means that you're going into positions that others are fleeing. This can, and should be, a well-deliberated investment decision. Also, the investment opportunities you highlighted about the 2008 financial crisis are only evident in hindsight. In that moment, the world financial structures were crumbling. There was no indication there was going to be a bailout, or that if there was one, that it would work. In that moment, there was no confidence in the system and risk of loss was everywhere. There was contagion and systemic collapse, and everything unfolding was pretty unprecedented. Now as it turns out, anyone putting money into certain companies made a killing, but don't forget that speculators were putting money in Bear Sterns on the way down too, and they lost everything. Same for Lehman. Looking at the landscape 2008, risk of loss - not just loss, but
total loss - was everywhere. It is only 10 years later with the benefit of a great deal of hindsight and context that can look back at 2008 and say,
man, there were some good opportunities out there. At the time, that was an incredibly uncomfortable thing to say.