Bear market? Will NEVER HAPPEN because of increasing # of unretrievable bitcoin

Rahar02

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Quote from: Herbert2020 on July 09, 2018, 12:18:17 AM

Quote from: Tyr808 on July 08, 2018, 08:44:01 PM

Indeed I used the world "prolongued" but looks like 90% of people in this board are pajeets who can't speak the freaking English language.

your title says "bear market will never happen" not a "prolonged bear ....".
also as far as i remember you define bear market as a "3 year correction of price" so according to your prediction a prolonged bear market must be 10 years! you can't really blame others for not understanding what you yourself are confused about...

Quote from: Tyr808 on June 25, 2018, 07:37:19 PM

a bear market, which is a prolongued (3 years +) correction of crypto prices,

Nah, that's the thing as the title mentioned "Bear market WILL NEVER HAPPEN". But the main point about prolonged bear market and the correlation with limited supply of bitcoin which continues to decrease. Yes, the bear market won't last forever and we can't judge how long it will based on what happened in the past due to the market interest constantly changing over time.
Maybe it was 3+ years correction a few years ago, but it won't happen these day, let's see what will happen by the end of the year and towards halving year. Nevertheless, aside from the factor of retrievable bitcoin, "acceptance" play an important role that affects the price instantly.

Herbert2020

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 06, 2018, 01:11:10 PM

You knuckleheads still don't get that the supply gets lower and lower as we speak.

every day about 1800 new bitcoins are being created. so unless you mean to tell us that every day also at least 1800+1 bitcoin is lost, the supply is increasing! Wink

Quote from: Tyr808 on July 08, 2018, 08:44:01 PM

Indeed I used the world "prolongued" but looks like 90% of people in this board are pajeets who can't speak the freaking English language.

your title says "bear market will never happen" not a "prolonged bear ....".
also as far as i remember you define bear market as a "3 year correction of price" so according to your prediction a prolonged bear market must be 10 years! you can't really blame others for not understanding what you yourself are confused about...

Quote from: Tyr808 on June 25, 2018, 07:37:19 PM

a bear market, which is a prolongued (3 years +) correction of crypto prices,

Tyr808

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Indeed I used the world "prolongued" but looks like 90% of people in this board are pajeets who can't speak the freaking English language.

Febo

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 03, 2018, 08:17:44 AM

Bear market? Will NEVER HAPPEN because of increasing # of unretrievable bitcoin

Following this thread.. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bear-market-will-never-happen-because-of-tether-printing-4545260

Here's reason number 2 of why an actual prolongued bear market for bitcoin is highly unlikely to happen:
The number of unretrievable lost bitcoin is growing every second and the trend is never going to stop.

People die every day, private keys get lost, dust amounts evaporates each transaction.. all of this compounds every moment and right now approximately 17-23% of the total bitcoin supply, according to Chainalysis, are irremediably forever lost.
Bitcoin has been around since not even 10 years and already 20% of it is gone, therefore I do not see a mathematical possibility for a prolongued decrease of the price from the current 6500$/btc.

---

28.5% gone according to this article
https://www.ccn.com/6-million-bitcoin-is-lost-or-stolen-should-the-real-value-of-btc-higher/

We are in Bear market for over 8 months. Price decreased most already. It cant go that much lower. And also time when we will reach bottom should be quite close to many predictions ( there are few that believe it will happen only mid next year). But that is it. You cant now say that bear market will not happen if it just did. What you can do is to call when bottom will happen and when recovery will start.

el kaka22

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 04, 2018, 02:44:22 AM

Quote from: Pursuer on July 04, 2018, 02:24:47 AM

we can have bear market if bitcoin supply was 1,000,000 and price of it was $6000

Nope.
6b$ total market cap for bitcoin is not possible. EOS alone raised such amount.

I would not say nothing is impossible and for one fact, I really would want us to concentrate more on demand, knowing that the market is more speculative in nature and easily manipulated. I understand what everyone is saying though, with the whole supply thing but it is not like it is still not relevant in a way if we get to see real life usage.

Since most of the movement and manipulation happens on exchanges, and it is not like all the circulating supply is totally reflected with the movement of the price based on the volume on exchanges, one may actually want to assume supply is irrelevant but this is an argument that we will all have different perspective to, but with the way things have been, the quick dump of even little volume affecting the prices quickly, anything is possible.

crzy

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Quote from: _CryptoBrain on July 04, 2018, 02:54:03 AM

Everything depends on demand, not on coin emission. If people do not want to own bitcoins and buy them, then the rate on the crypto currency will not grow, even if there is 1 coin left.

Exactly, the supply is decreasing but of course if there is no demand the value will still remain no matter how much the supply is. I can actually say that we are already in the bear market, TA will prove that. The downtrend is already a bearish and that's how traders see about the market.

The_Dark_Knight

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 03, 2018, 08:17:44 AM

Following this thread.. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bear-market-will-never-happen-because-of-tether-printing-4545260

Here's reason number 2 of why an actual prolongued bear market for bitcoin is highly unlikely to happen:
The number of unretrievable lost bitcoin is growing every second and the trend is never going to stop.

People die every day, private keys get lost, dust amounts evaporates each transaction.. all of this compounds every moment and right now approximately 17-23% of the total bitcoin supply, according to Chainalysis, are irremediably forever lost.
Bitcoin has been around since not even 10 years and already 20% of it is gone, therefore I do not see a mathematical possibility for a prolongued decrease of the price from the current 6500$/btc.

---

28.5% gone according to this article
https://www.ccn.com/6-million-bitcoin-is-lost-or-stolen-should-the-real-value-of-btc-higher/

As Keynes once said “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” even if you are correct in your analysis that does not means that the bear market is going to be short because of it, right now the market is very fearful and we know that the two most important motivators of the market are fear and greed and most people are not greedy they are fearful and selling as a result.

BitcoinNewbie15

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 06, 2018, 01:11:10 PM

You knuckleheads still don't get that the supply gets lower and lower as we speak.

Yes, supply is getting lower we get that. If demand stays the same then the price will go up. That's econ 101. We are saying demand has to stay the same or increase for an increase in price. Demand is what comes first, not the supply. As others have said, you could have a coin with only 1 million supply, but that doesn't mean it will be worth anything. There has to be a demand for those one million coins. The demand for Bitcoin, however, has substantially decreased since December of 2017. If the demand keeps dropping then the price will too, therefore making the supply irrelevant because no one is fighting over buying coins. If the demand for Bitcoin keeps increasing and the supply keeps dropping then this will be good for Bitcoin. However, there is currently no reason for the demand for Bitcoin to increase.

rickadone

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Quote from: bitebits on July 03, 2018, 11:09:43 AM

There still needs to be demand.

Yes, by demand we are talking a real demand here and not just some speculative and FOMO driven demand which may or will end up not being sustainable. Although, a lot of things have changed though when it comes to awareness, people getting to see the real pictures compared to past years, but at the same time, this market is more speculative in nature than we can get to see real life usage yet, so the number of irretrievable coin as the OP mentioned is inapposite in this equation since most of the data we see anyway is exchange based.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: XinXan on July 06, 2018, 02:53:37 PM

Quote from: Tyr808 on July 06, 2018, 01:11:10 PM

You knuckleheads still don't get that the supply gets lower and lower as we speak.

Lower just like people interest in bitcoin. You knucklehead are not reading what we are telling you. Although supply is important it is not the ultimate factor. Besides there is going to be a limit on how much a bitcoin can be worth.

take a look at the charts in 2011 or 2014. interest plummeted along with price. everyone thought bitcoin was dead. and then......another bubble happened. rinse, repeat.

Quote from: XinXan on July 06, 2018, 02:53:37 PM

People saying bitcoin 1 million dollars are delusional.

you may turn out correct---maybe the hype will die and crypto won't go mainstream. that's certainly possible. but it all boils down to supply and demand. and if bitcoin continues on this path (traditional investment asset, regulated institutional markets, mainstream adoption), then $1 million price tag actually sounds quite low. you know there will only ever be 21 million coins, right? bitcoin just needs to take a small slice of gold's market (let alone others) to achieve that.

richardsNY

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Quote from: XinXan on July 06, 2018, 02:53:37 PM

Besides there is going to be a limit on how much a bitcoin can be worth. People saying bitcoin 1 million dollars are delusional.

I don't consider them to be delusional. The only limit to Bitcoin's value is that it can't ever be worth more than all the fiat in circulation. Realistically, there won't ever be a time where that happens, but that's basically the only limit. On top of that, what if Bitcoin was worth $1 right now and someone tells you that in the future Bitcoin will be worth close to $20,000, and more precisely, within 10 years? I'm sure you would consider that person delusional as well. It's impossible to discard certain scenarios when it comes to Bitcoin as tiny dot in the financial world. A thing called Bitcoin has grown from nothing to something -- why can't it grow from something to a developed asset?

XinXan

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 06, 2018, 01:11:10 PM

You knuckleheads still don't get that the supply gets lower and lower as we speak.

Lower just like people interest in bitcoin. You knucklehead are not reading what we are telling you. Although supply is important it is not the ultimate factor. Besides there is going to be a limit on how much a bitcoin can be worth. People saying bitcoin 1 million dollars are delusional.

Mind Control

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 06, 2018, 01:11:10 PM

You knuckleheads still don't get that the supply gets lower and lower as we speak.

We get that but you are focusing too much on supply even though demand also plays a crucial part in this market. Supply alone is irrelevant. What is the sense of being scarce when no one wants to buy? Please accept the fact that supply and demand comes in set. You can think of this as the Yin and Yang.

Tyr808

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You knuckleheads still don't get that the supply gets lower and lower as we speak.

arpon11

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This is truth, however I have never think it in this way. Bitcoin has been around for just 10 year and the unrecoverable lost is high as this. I think the bull will continue to run the show as the supplies is going to decrease in no time. Most of the early miners has lost their private keys to some wallets including me.

BitcoinNewbie15

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Quote from: XinXan on July 06, 2018, 05:31:41 AM

Quote from: Tyr808 on July 04, 2018, 11:48:29 PM

This new article estimates 6 million btc permanently lost, or 30% of current total supply.

https://www.ccn.com/6-million-bitcoin-is-lost-or-stolen-should-the-real-value-of-btc-higher/

That's cool but it doesn't matter. Any other coin with less supply should be worth more then using your argument. Bitcoin still needs to have value somehow, otherwise it doesn't matter even if the supply is only 1 million. Who is going to buy if everyone thinks bitcoin is worthless?

This is exactly right. Supply doesn't matter really, the only thing that does is the growth of the network, and in turn an increase in demand. Demand has to supersede the current supply to fuel another bull run. The only way I can see demand increasing is an ETF, or other people finally entering the crypto market for whatever reason...

XinXan

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 04, 2018, 11:48:29 PM

This new article estimates 6 million btc permanently lost, or 30% of current total supply.

https://www.ccn.com/6-million-bitcoin-is-lost-or-stolen-should-the-real-value-of-btc-higher/

That's cool but it doesn't matter. Any other coin with less supply should be worth more then using your argument. Bitcoin still needs to have value somehow, otherwise it doesn't matter even if the supply is only 1 million. Who is going to buy if everyone thinks bitcoin is worthless?

Tyr808

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06/19/11 17:51 Bought BTC 259684.77 for 0.0101

This new article estimates 6 million btc permanently lost, or 30% of current total supply.

https://www.ccn.com/6-million-bitcoin-is-lost-or-stolen-should-the-real-value-of-btc-higher/

dothebeats

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Cashback 15%

Diminishing supply alone doesn't strongly negate the effects of a bear market. Do note that selling pressure is constant during a bear market and little to no demand is present during these times. For it to work, someone must constantly buy in order to balance out anything, but no, no one wants to lose and no one wants to risk everything on uncertainty, except for the market movers who surely are accumulating during this phase. A bear market is always likely to happen since it only takes a few hundred thousand coins to be dumped all at once to cause a crash, and the rest is history.

XinXan

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Quote from: Tyr808 on July 03, 2018, 08:14:00 PM

Quote from: XinXan on July 03, 2018, 03:26:10 PM

Quote from: Tyr808 on July 03, 2018, 11:55:11 AM

Quote from: XinXan on July 03, 2018, 11:41:39 AM

Quote from: bitebits on July 03, 2018, 11:09:43 AM

There still needs to be demand.

Exactly, this ''argument'' is absolutely wrong. ''The number of unretrievable lost bitcoin is growing every second and the trend is never going to stop.'' That has always been the case and yet we had 2-3 years of bear market not long ago. DASH has less supply than bitcoin and yet it's not worth more. Any bad news, like making bitcoin illegal somewhere or tough regulations will prolong this bear market for years easily.

Demand. Here it helps to see it as a relative rather than absolute factor.
For example, I utterly dislike facebook. But it couldn't drop 99% of its value because even I myself would buy the heck out of it once it's dropped 98%, i.e. I would become the demand in that case..

Well if something drops 98% you would be a fool to buy that. In this case I don't think demand is relative since bitcoin does not have any application whatsoever, it's not like gold where you can use it to create stuff.

Industrial use of gold is minimal and is a highly irrelevant determinant for its price.

Ok give me 1 other factor a part from demand then. Bitcoin works purely on demand, it's not a currency, it will never be, people call it the digital gold because that's what it is. I don't see any other factor influencing bitcoin other than demand. It's not like you can do anything with it.

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