Bear market? Will NEVER HAPPEN because of tether printing. - page 3.

exstasie

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Quote from: Tyr808 on June 27, 2018, 01:15:33 AM

Quote from: exstasie on June 26, 2018, 04:13:17 PM

I think the burden is on you to prove that "Tether printing" is important. Even the University of Texas report pointed to a very low level of statistical relevance. Tether issuance may not be random, but nobody has proven that it has a meaningful effect on price:

Quote

The authors suggest the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex buys bitcoin with another cryptocurrency -- tether -- to push up Bitcoin prices. How much? Four basis points per 100 bitcoin. With Bitcoin at $10,000, for example, that means Bitfinex spends $1 million to push the price up to $10,004.

It doesn't need to be proven. It's just pure logic applied to economics. You have an injection of capital in the books and this inflates crypto prices.
Also as you mention most of the existing real capital in the books is due to wash trading so a real injection (such as tether) would have an even magnified amplitude of effect.

Did you read the link above? "Tether injections" are characterized by the opposite of a "magnified amplitude of effect."

Yes, it's purely logical that (all else equal) an injection of capital into static supply causes price to increase. But that's no different than buyers depositing to Bitstamp or Coinbase......or Tether. I see no indication that Tether issuance is significant in any way. They are only barely noticeable from a statistical standpoint. I also see no proof they are illegitimate (not backed by real USD) or manipulative.

Your claim looks weak when it's pointed out how small of an effect Tether has. Even if they were trying to prop the market up, they are only a tiny drop in the bucket:

Quote from: BillyBobZorton on June 27, 2018, 11:00:27 AM

If the process was transparent and the bank accounts were publicly auditable it would be less of an uncertainty but then again, providing such a service it's very difficult and you are pretty much forced to use off-shore accounts in private banking, it's just never going to be solved unless it gets audited by a bunch of different parties.

I mean, it's not like we get to see an audit of Coinbase's bank accounts either. They get their share of people shouting "insolvency" too. Wink

BillyBobZorton

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Quote from: Tyr808 on June 27, 2018, 01:12:01 AM

Quote from: fabiorem on June 26, 2018, 04:28:36 PM

I would love to agree to you, but I cannot.

Tether printing is just a meme, invented by conspiracy theorists on the level of r0ach.

It would be so good to be real. If it was, we would be at one million already, and able to eradicate poverty from Earth.

Unfortunatelly, it is not. Tether printing is just material for FUD, to drive the price down.

What strikes me in this case is the hipocrisy: everybody FUD over tether printing, but nobody FUD over fiat printing. If people where to FUD over fiat printing, in the same way they FUD over tether printing, bitcoin would have a higher price now.

About bear markets: 2013-2015 was a bear market, and didnt last 3 years. Bitcoin moves faster than the stock market, just do some research.

Lol now tether is a conspiracy.

It's just what it is, a lot of people are going to think forever that Tether doesn't have 1:1 resources at all times, and at least ins ome periods in time they are printing these Tether tokens without having the actual US dollar reserves.

If the process was transparent and the bank accounts were publicly auditable it would be less of an uncertainty but then again, providing such a service it's very difficult and you are pretty much forced to use off-shore accounts in private banking, it's just never going to be solved unless it gets audited by a bunch of different parties.

Tyr808

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Quote from: exstasie on June 26, 2018, 04:13:17 PM

Quote from: Tyr808 on June 25, 2018, 07:37:19 PM

Ok, prove me wrong.

I think the burden is on you to prove that "Tether printing" is important. Even the University of Texas report pointed to a very low level of statistical relevance. Tether issuance may not be random, but nobody has proven that it has a meaningful effect on price:

Quote from: Tyr808 on June 25, 2018, 07:37:19 PM

Here I state that a bear market, which is a prolongued (3 years +) correction of crypto prices, will never happen reason being the occasional bursts of tether issuing which is something nobody can police.

Any number of exchanges/brokers could be engaging in price manipulation. I believe the Chinese exchanges (particularly Okcoin.cn, Okcoin.com futures and Huobi) heavily manipulated price (or attempted to) for years. This is true of regulated markets as well.

It doesn't need to be proven. It's just pure logic applied to economics. You have an injection of capital in the books and this inflates crypto prices.
Also as you mention most of the existing real capital in the books is due to wash trading so a real injection (such as tether) would have an even magnified amplitude of effect.

Tyr808

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Quote from: fabiorem on June 26, 2018, 04:28:36 PM

I would love to agree to you, but I cannot.

Tether printing is just a meme, invented by conspiracy theorists on the level of r0ach.

It would be so good to be real. If it was, we would be at one million already, and able to eradicate poverty from Earth.

Unfortunatelly, it is not. Tether printing is just material for FUD, to drive the price down.

What strikes me in this case is the hipocrisy: everybody FUD over tether printing, but nobody FUD over fiat printing. If people where to FUD over fiat printing, in the same way they FUD over tether printing, bitcoin would have a higher price now.

About bear markets: 2013-2015 was a bear market, and didnt last 3 years. Bitcoin moves faster than the stock market, just do some research.

Lol now tether is a conspiracy.

Tyr808

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on June 26, 2018, 07:56:43 PM

Quote from: Tyr808 on June 25, 2018, 07:37:19 PM

Ok, prove me wrong.

You must understand that the demand in USDT is going up when the price of bitcoin is falling down. That makes the issuer need to issue more USDT to maintain the peg to $1 = 1 USDT.

In any case, USDT printing is not because someone is preparing to pump like what you presumed.

Not sure what you mean.. more or less demand, that's still liquidity which is eventually gonna be pumping up crypto prices.

Tyr808

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Quote from: Herbert2020 on June 27, 2018, 12:21:49 AM

your problem is that you took a glance at a bitcoin chart and then started this topic. you are basically saying that bitcoin had NO bear markets so far in the past 9 years although you think you are saying it had 1 (2014).

if you look closely you will see 2 things:
1. this bear market that you glanced lasted 1 year from 2014-1 to 2015-1 and then the accumulation was from then till about Sep. then the rally aka bull market started.
2. there has been many other bear markets in bitcoin, each lasting a lot less than 2014 one and some of them were much bigger than it.

Tether has been only recently introduced and now that we have it there's gonna be continuous sudden injections of fresh liquidity in cryptos.
During the past bear runs there was no tether.

Herbert2020

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your problem is that you took a glance at a bitcoin chart and then started this topic. you are basically saying that bitcoin had NO bear markets so far in the past 9 years although you think you are saying it had 1 (2014).

if you look closely you will see 2 things:
1. this bear market that you glanced lasted 1 year from 2014-1 to 2015-1 and then the accumulation was from then till about Sep. then the rally aka bull market started.
2. there has been many other bear markets in bitcoin, each lasting a lot less than 2014 one and some of them were much bigger than it.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: Tyr808 on June 25, 2018, 07:37:19 PM

Ok, prove me wrong.

You must understand that the demand in USDT is going up when the price of bitcoin is falling down. That makes the issuer need to issue more USDT to maintain the peg to $1 = 1 USDT.

In any case, USDT printing is not because someone is preparing to pump like what you presumed.

fabiorem

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I would love to agree to you, but I cannot.

Tether printing is just a meme, invented by conspiracy theorists on the level of r0ach.

It would be so good to be real. If it was, we would be at one million already, and able to eradicate poverty from Earth.

Unfortunatelly, it is not. Tether printing is just material for FUD, to drive the price down.

What strikes me in this case is the hipocrisy: everybody FUD over tether printing, but nobody FUD over fiat printing. If people where to FUD over fiat printing, in the same way they FUD over tether printing, bitcoin would have a higher price now.

About bear markets: 2013-2015 was a bear market, and didnt last 3 years. Bitcoin moves faster than the stock market, just do some research.

BitHodler

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Tether has become a real thing here. It's getting far more credits than it's worth.

There is no point in speculating whether or not Tethers are being used to pump the market. If it did, it would be quite pathetic actually, because it means that this whole market is one inflated bubble not even worth half its price.

Try to find others things to focus on. Tether will eventually lose importance due to how exchanges becoming compliant are able to add actual fiat pairs instead of tokens consisting of nothingness.

Just follow exchanges trading actual fiat pairs and ignore the rest. I always found Bitstamp and GDAX to be the better exchanges to follow. Even Gemini can be seen as a worthy one to follow. Future looks bright.

exstasie

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Quote from: Tyr808 on June 25, 2018, 07:37:19 PM

Ok, prove me wrong.

I think the burden is on you to prove that "Tether printing" is important. Even the University of Texas report pointed to a very low level of statistical relevance. Tether issuance may not be random, but nobody has proven that it has a meaningful effect on price:

Quote from: Tyr808 on June 25, 2018, 07:37:19 PM

Here I state that a bear market, which is a prolongued (3 years +) correction of crypto prices, will never happen reason being the occasional bursts of tether issuing which is something nobody can police.

Any number of exchanges/brokers could be engaging in price manipulation. I believe the Chinese exchanges (particularly Okcoin.cn, Okcoin.com futures and Huobi) heavily manipulated price (or attempted to) for years. This is true of regulated markets as well.

cellard

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Quote from: gentlemand on June 26, 2018, 02:10:40 PM

The Tether issuances since the arse fell out of the market have had little to no effect on the direction of things. They've been few and far between but whatever theory people had about pumping has been pooed on.

It's possible all that Tether was rolled out to pump to fill the hole in BFX's accounts. Now they've made it all back with fees and just in time to roll out their 1-1 announcement. No more need to pump if that was the reason.

And has it not occurred to people that more tether is needed when more people want it to get out of Bitcoin or alts?

Good theory, but a proper audition would be able to find that they generated non 1:1 tethers at some point in time? Or they would be able to get away with it because the tether generation didn't leave any logs? Are they supposed to keep logs of tether printing in case authorities asks? what would authorities do if they ask for tether generation logs and said logs do not exists? These questions will some day be answered and if everything doesn't add up, we may have a tethering.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

The Tether issuances since the arse fell out of the market have had little to no effect on the direction of things. They've been few and far between but whatever theory people had about pumping has been pooed on.

It's possible all that Tether was rolled out to pump to fill the hole in BFX's accounts. Now they've made it all back with fees and just in time to roll out their 1-1 announcement. No more need to pump if that was the reason.

And has it not occurred to people that more tether is needed when more people want it to get out of Bitcoin or alts?

sindikat

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Quote from: berrygood on June 26, 2018, 10:42:45 AM

Tether may be printed but those printed tether are not necessarily spent but I make such inference that coins are bottoming now rather than end of bear market.

I don't understand the value of this currency. How can you trust such an asset? The main reason for the popularity of the cryptocurrency is that the uncontrolled printing of Fiat government and Fiat currencies do not have an economically reasonable value. Maybe bitcoin is now suffering from the fact that a lot of money is withdrawn through shitcoins.

Denker

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Quote from: Tyr808 on June 25, 2018, 07:37:19 PM

Ok, prove me wrong.

Here I state that a bear market, which is a prolongued (3 years +) correction of crypto prices, will never happen reason being the occasional bursts of tether issuing which is something nobody can police.

Add to this the fact greed never dies and stockmarket doesn't provide the gains todays young people demand: kids want adrenalin and lambos not fuckin retirement plan.

Who is saying we will have a 3 year bear market? Or that bear markets last that long?
In another post you said that 6 months isn't enough for a bear market. I disagree. This has nothing to do with time. It's all about the charts, price, trend and trend reversals. Time is not of any significance here.
Regarding Tether, I don't care, because it's influence isn't that big as some here think it is.

berrygood

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Tether may be printed but those printed tether are not necessarily spent but I make such inference that coins are bottoming now rather than end of bear market.

webtricks

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Quote from: Tyr808 on June 25, 2018, 07:37:19 PM

Ok, prove me wrong.

Here I state that a bear market, which is a prolongued (3 years +) correction of crypto prices, will never happen reason being the occasional bursts of tether issuing which is something nobody can police.

Add to this the fact greed never dies and stockmarket doesn't provide the gains todays young people demand: kids want adrenalin and lambos not fuckin retirement plan.

Believe me printing of Tether has nothing to do with bullish market. No doubt, whenever new Tethers come into circulation, prices of BTC and other alts increase but it is not the sole reason of BTC rise. Bitcoin even see bullish trends when other news and happenings come. Linking bullish trend solely to TETHER is wrong judgement.

Tyr808

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What could ever stop tether emission?

Catmony

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Quote from: BillyBobZorton on June 26, 2018, 06:30:59 AM

Tether claims that their tokens are backed at 1:1 rates by real US dollars tho.... so there shouldn't be a problem when that money is printed because it's not really printed, it's just USD, and then you must go complain to the FED about printed USD too if you don't like that.

https://tether.to/announcement-transparency-update/

Official statement.

That is official statement but not a proved one from any of the established audit firm so we can't believe it. It is just like a seller providing personal guarantee to its product. Grin

If tether will ever get exposed which is quite unlikely unless some insider comes out and expose them, than there will be so much blood on the street many people who might have tether at that time might even commit suicide. I don't have deep analysis till now about true USD but it seems promising alternative to USDT.

BillyBobZorton

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Tether will sooner or later implode if these dollars aren't backed by real dollars.

Tether claims that their tokens are backed at 1:1 rates by real US dollars tho.... so there shouldn't be a problem when that money is printed because it's not really printed, it's just USD, and then you must go complain to the FED about printed USD too if you don't like that.

https://tether.to/announcement-transparency-update/

Official statement.

Topic: Bear market? Will NEVER HAPPEN because of tether printing. - page 3. (Read 818 times)