Topic: Bear Thread! (Read 2589 times)

It's only foolproof if you have tons of bitcoins to throw away (it would take over 1/8 of all bitcoins to make it to 0.01, assuming only visible orders on mtgox).  Sustainable growth is happening... it's just won't be smooth so long as 1% of any other market can move this one by 50%.  Bitcoin doesn't exist independently from the rest of the world's economics.  Some of the best medicines are poisonous in larger doses.

You are aware that a trend is nothing but a line that happens to be on some chart? If you valued Bitcoin below 5.5 USD weeks ago, what changes your sentiment this much in such a short time?



@Technomage: I see the problem exactly in the fact that a possibly over-the-top bullishness is still there, which unlocks BTC sell-offs when it ends, and the fact that everybody is hyping short-time events that are supposed to bring in speculators ASAP, or something. And post stuff about trend-lines, best on logscale again. It's bound to over-shoot, and now would be a befitting time for a reversal due to the current chaos. (And simply because I think activity is kind of low compared to the volume*price rise we're facing these times)

I see no reason to be overly bearish. I can see the reasoning for expecting a bigger correction but it might not be happening. Bitcoin got the single biggest boost since June thanks to the Good Wife episode, now it seems to be spawning a good amount of articles among law professionals. Which is interesting.

This is countered by the Bitcoinica episode and I didn't like the new Mt. Gox AML policy either but these are not a reason to despair. The Bitcoinica episode would've happened eventually anyway, it's actually good that it happened when the market was as bullish as it was. Now the market is more in a neutral situation in my opinion and it's unlikely that it will change to more bearish instead of more bullish.

Attention feeds new attention which means we will see a lot of other news spawn from the Good Wife episode, it's very unlikely that it'll be just a lonely spike amongst nothing. The bearish scenario is that we get more crap like the Bitcoinica event that increases the doubts some people have right now. Overall it's simply more likely that we'll see more good news in the short term future.

Vandroiy was right about the dip but these things are such that no one is always right. Even the best are only right maybe 60% of the time. I feel it's certainly possible that we'll bounce back to low $5's but find it very unlikely that we could go lower than that. The overall bullishness was not countered that hard by the Bitcoinica event.

This looks like a foolproof way to skim the gamblers. And lay the foundation for sustainable growth. Volatility is poison.

Nah I dont trade too much, Im mostly a mine and hold kind of guy.  I do have a small short position on bitcoinica right now... but its a tiny percentage of my holdings.

Translation: Someone please sell me some $5 Bitcoin. LOL

Im not usually a bear but I think we need to test $5 more seriously before taking off again.

I don't understand your sentiment. Yes, we had a correction after irrational bullishness. Is the longer term trend broken? Not yet, as I see it. I think of the last 2 weeks as the inverse of the dips we've seen on the way down during july - november.

Already after $5.5 I was expecting a period of correction to kick in but then it went even higher. So no surprise that this happened. I just regret not selling a bit while it was at $7.2 anyway.

If I have to take an impulsive guess, I'd say it needs a miracle within days now. Stall warning. Stall warning. Stall warning...

Longest the market ever managed in this state was more than two weeks in July. Do I have to remind people of the outcome of that glorious idea? Let it go, there is no rally coming, finally stop the mania or the bust will deepen! Even if someone with enough money comes and for whatever unlikely reason starts a rally, what happens once that person runs out? Can everyone simultaneously sell into him?

But it may already be too late, they pushed so far by now that I can't tell anymore.

I am heavily bearish for the next 30 minutes

maybe he means the dollar bears will win.

lol..piercing gashing dagger horns count for nothing?

LAWL if you hold significant USDs.  Have fun with that.

LAWL @ bitcoin being a safer investment than dollars. it's POSSIBLE for bitcoin to be $1 tomorrow.

dollar goes down, gold & silver goes up. bitcoin will remain volatile at a scale much larger than fluctuations in established currencies until its utility increases significantly.

Dollar's taking a dump now... Risk On.  Good luck stopping the flight from dollars to anything that's got a shot at going up or even just staying level, or dropping slower.

i agree. we were waiting for that rally for far too long. everyone expected a rocket to the moon with CES, the TV show, and it didn't happen. then there was a huge dump, a veritable bull slaughterhouse. we're still having the burgers. the triple, quadruple top means it's a bear market now.

GIFSoup

DIE!

That's just it though.... Lots of inexperienced traders playing with leverage leads to big profit opportunities like yesterday.  The big players are influential enough that they can kick start things.  I'm not a big player, but I've seen enough of this market to expect this kind of behavior.  I did well yesterday and invite that to continue to happen, despite my long term long position.

oh jeez nick

deep breaths man