Bears, Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is - page 6.

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

Quote from: Kazu on April 20, 2013, 07:03:09 PM

Here are my odds. We are currently ~25% above $100, so assuming 1 month from now we are below $100 (i.e, down bet, NOT one-touch) you will receive 125% of your bet in profit.

I'm not going to do a one-touch of $100 as that has way too good of a chance of happening. However I'm willing to do a one-touch of $90, with 1:1 odds. You will receive 100% of your bet in profit if you win.

1. we do need an escrow for that

2. ok sounds interesting

3. if I extend your judgement I presume you would expect a similar reversed odds for the 150 BET?

Let's do some math: current price 128.44

150/128= 1.171875

so I pay about 1.2 you pay 1. The winner takes the pot.

am I right?

Kazu

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: kibblesnbits on April 20, 2013, 06:56:45 PM

Quote from: DoomDumas on April 20, 2013, 06:40:14 PM

Or, bet Disagree on the statement in my sgnature Wink

Egads there's huge loopholes in this bet

Quote

A bitcoin trade will be executed at Mt. Gox for $500 USD or more at any time before January 1st 2014.

The bet closes as soon as a price of $500 or more is reached at any time before the event date.

To make this statement true, any trade for any amount of BTC for any amount of $ over 500 would work. So I could buy 100BTC at $120/per and close the bet.

Make it "the cost of one BTC will be greater than 500 USD at any time before 1/1/14". Do that and I'm in.

I'm willing to do:

"On Mount Gox, at least 1 trade will occur before 1/1/14 with the exchange rate of $500 = 1 BTC"

Kazu

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Here are my odds. We are currently ~25% above $100, so assuming 1 month from now we are below $100 (i.e, down bet, NOT one-touch) you will receive 125% of your bet in profit.

I'm not going to do a one-touch of $100 as that has way too good of a chance of happening. However I'm willing to do a one-touch of $90, with 1:1 odds. You will receive 100% of your bet in profit if you win.

kibblesnbits

hero member

Activity: 557

Merit: 500

Quote from: DoomDumas on April 20, 2013, 06:40:14 PM

Or, bet Disagree on the statement in my sgnature Wink

Egads there's huge loopholes in this bet

Quote

A bitcoin trade will be executed at Mt. Gox for $500 USD or more at any time before January 1st 2014.

The bet closes as soon as a price of $500 or more is reached at any time before the event date.

To make this statement true, any trade for any amount of BTC for any amount of $ over 500 would work. So I could buy 100BTC at $120/per and close the bet.

Make it "the cost of one BTC will be greater than 500 USD at any time before 1/1/14". Do that and I'm in.

DoomDumas

legendary

Activity: 1002

Merit: 1000

Bitcoin

Or, bet Disagree on the statement in my sgnature Wink

Kazu

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: adraza on April 20, 2013, 03:37:53 PM

I know.
And 100 is below the current price.
That's why I have asked about ODDS.

Have you received "my dollar" ?

Indeed I did receive your dollar xD
I'll get back to you on odds.

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

I know.
And 100 is below the current price.
That's why I have asked about ODDS.

Have you received "my dollar" ?

Kazu

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: adraza on April 20, 2013, 12:41:36 PM

How about end of May?

for 150 strike price

and another one

for 100 strike price

What odds would I get? Obviously should be different than 1:1.
And the bet should be in USD of course.

150 for strike price? Thats above current price. -_-

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

proof of concept

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

by the way

https://blockchain.info/address/1F6yaGAsfe6LvmGf6sdKGY8JJEXPsEMbcR

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

How about end of May?

for 150 strike price

and another one

for 100 strike price

What odds would I get? Obviously should be different than 1:1.
And the bet should be in USD of course.

Vandroiy

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1002

Quote from: Kazu on April 20, 2013, 12:14:21 PM

The first one was sort of me trolling.

I could do a 1 month 1:1 strike of $120.

A month is still somewhat short... but might be interesting.

But before that, what kind of sums is this about, given a trustworthy escrow? (Should I call in some speculators and ask about 5-digit USD bets?)

Kazu

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: Vandroiy on April 20, 2013, 12:00:03 PM

What sums, time-frames and odds are we talking about here? Are you doing different odds by strike price or rather 1:1 on current price?

I'm somewhat mid-term bearish, on the order of months. Any offers on that time-frame?

The first one was sort of me trolling.

I could do a 1 month 1:1 strike of $120.

im3w1l

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

This was entertaining to watch

Vandroiy

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1002

What sums, time-frames and odds are we talking about here? Are you doing different odds by strike price or rather 1:1 on current price?

I'm somewhat mid-term bearish, on the order of months. Any offers on that time-frame?

Kazu

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: adraza on April 20, 2013, 11:51:28 AM

price is 124.09
1$=0.008058

let's say 0.0081

where should i pay?

1F6yaGAsfe6LvmGf6sdKGY8JJEXPsEMbcR

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

price is 124.09
1$=0.008058

let's say 0.0081

where should i pay?

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

ok lost

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

0.1$ ??

adraza

member

Activity: 113

Merit: 10

0.2$

Topic: Bears, Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is - page 6. (Read 7187 times)