Topic: Bears, Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is - page 7. (Read 7199 times)

selling for 0.3

 

I have a feeling that I am losing.
What about a premature ending of the bet?
I give you 0.5$ NOW and we mutually agree to end the bet?



Or if anyone is interested to buy this "losing" bet for only 0.5$??

I'm ready to bet 10.000$ that 3 months from now the average price for all BTCs sold on mtgox during a week is under 100$. So we pull the order list from mtgox, multiply quantity with price, add and divide by total sold. If it's under 100$ you give me 20.000$ back, if it's over you keep the original 10.000$. I don't care what happens to the $ in the meantime as long as you have liquid assets to cover the 20.000$, and by 'liquid' I mean anything other than bitcoins.

Easy money, this is as good as shorts get; unfortunately you can't convince me that I can do this safely without exposing myself to BTC volatility and without trusting a random guy on a forum...

Okay, accepted. Your source seems fine. Ending time is 04:49:11 PM server time (Bitcointalk server time) which is 1 hour from when you posted.

So basically I will bet 1$ that the Mtgox price will be lower than now after exactly 1 hour.
I think that https://data.mtgox.com/api/2/BTCUSD/money/ticker  is a good source.

So at the moment 1$=0.0082651 BTC
And the opening price is 120.99 BTCUSD

Very well, I will still complete the transactions in bitcoins however as I have no other way of paying you. I will scale your winnings or losings according to current price of bitcoin.

Which bet type do you want?

I would like to have a bet like this, but in $. Meaning that I like the Bitcoin infrastructure for sending and receiving value, but right now I can not trust the stability of BTC (what stability?).

For example a 10$ bet that after x hours the price will be lower.
Using MtGox price as enter price, exit price and of course outcome price.

And as far as I know BTC is quoted much detailed than 'cents'.

Considering that I trust you for now, we have to settle the time correlations.

Ah... Greed makes the world go round. And sometimes broke 

How about this one:

If price goes over USD250 first I owe you USD250
If price goes under USD50 first you owe me BTC5

Bad bet, I have no trust in USD

These kinds of bets are rather complex to get fair...

Or the bears could bet against the price of Bitcoin going up to $10,000 in the next few years:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1532

You'd have to have an ass load of money to do so, and even if you did, you'd probably lose more than you'd win anyways.

Those bets could be cheated at, just a warning for bigger bets.

If you have enough BC and bet a lot if BCs on BCs going down, you can throw a pig pile on the market to let them go down.
(or if you have enough cash, buy BCs to let them go up)

The difference is, that you will be making money while you wait, and that if you choose you will never have to long bitcoin at all.

and so the informal Bitcoin derivatives trade was born.

How about, we 'bears' just sit and watch what happens.

If we are correct, and over time, Bitcoin finds a base at a much lower price range, then at that point, providing we think the fundamentals for future growth are still in good shape (I am talking steady and/or thriving existing or newly established Bitcoin market places such as Silk Road), then we enter at that price point, whatever it may be.

If we are wrong, and this time it is indeed 'different', and the price stabilises between $100-$150, before taking off into the stratosphere never to return, with the whole world chomping at the bit to get hold of some Bitcoins no matter what the price, then we miss out.

In December 2012, it was not provident to be a bear as happenings have proven. The bulls however, I would suggest owe their good fortune more to luck other than to any personal insight or genius on their own part. The exponential price explosion was I suspect caused by relatively few players as opposed to any of the other reasons that are often cited on forums such as this. In short, nobody could have predicted what happened.

Now however, that we have had the hyperbolic rise and crash, an almost endless history of graphs and charts of previous asset price bubbles give a pretty good indication of what is to come some time down the line. Of course, there is always the chance that there is some other X factor at work here and that this time, it really is different. But this wouldn't be the side of the argument that the risk averse money would choose.

The advantage always goes to the bull because the bull can express his position without the help of the bear but the bear can't do so without the help of the bull. Still, I agree its unfair that the bear can actually lose money if the price goes down too much. Thus, for "down" bets (for one-touch I will send the BTC when the price hits the one-touch so they aren't exposed to additional downside risk) I'll 'hedge' you out of BTC: If you win, and the price goes down I'll cover the loss.

Bottom line: No matter what, if you win the bet, you will win money. I'm not trying to pull any dick shit (other than take advantage of the bad predictions of bears)!

The other direction is perfectly fair, as if I win, I have the right to do what I want with your money, and what I want to do is buy bitcoins.

I think your step 3 is wrong

But seriously, I don't see how it is an interesting deal. We make a bet of 10 BTC at 100$ each for example. If I win, I double my money (20 BTC)....but I win only if the price goes down. If the price goes down 50% and more, I'm not making any money on the original deal. Getting 20 BTC at 50$.....why am I betting in the first place?

But in your case, if you win, it means that the price went up. So, you're winning 20 BTC of more value than the original BTC of the deal.

I don't see how your bet offer can be profitable for any bear. The margin where he can win and profit is small (between minus 1% and 50% of the original price) while you have an infinite margin where you can win and profit.

EDIT: Ignore, issue resolved.

Also for further reference, I've created a custom address for this, 1F6yaGAsfe6LvmGf6sdKGY8JJEXPsEMbcR, which I'll be using to receive all funds.

EDIT: Ignore, issue resolved.