Topic: Been here before. (Read 5208 times)

Thanks man, U2.

It will shoot up again, I never doubted that, and I bought nothing at top but at least 60% of it. My only worry is if these btc reserves will be enough to fund my bills until that happen.

the year is not over yet, there will be some big movements in the alt market and in btc (hopefully)!
good luck with your trading

Shitcoins mainly, I got margin called just once. This morning for 16 btc.

Yeah, I had some huge wins and I needed one more step to come to Dreamland. Unfortunately that went wrong so far. Hopefully, it will turn again, I hope it's still just temporary drawdown, I haven't sold anything. And I'm pretty sure I'll recover the biggest losing trade as it's not classic shitcoin investment, not sure how fast and the time between is what is worrying me but hopefully I'll get out of this mud.

Last summer was much worse than this though I had much less to regret about back then.

Shitcoins and margin trading. Sorry to hear about your losses, seleme. Gotta risk big to win big I guess.

I didn't lose 430 BTC.

I cashed out some and I still can take back max. 100 from various alts, but not fast as I could crash some heavily. The rest is locked in very losing trades, not lost as I haven't sold anything but not available too

Holy ****! How did you lose 430 bitcoins ?? Only with altcoin trading ? Asic hardware ?

I've got through 60$ and 340$ but this is the worst one for me, first time I feel fear.

At 60$ it was play money, few btc and I couldn't care less. Than I managed to make that 30+ btc and invested all in one alt that went down heavily and I still couldn't care less. At September alt jumped up, I recovered and then came bubble, then I made some huge good trades in alts and mcx fees and in no time I was at 500 coins. Around 300 000$ net worth after one year and initial investment of 1000$.

And then I started to make mistake after mistake, investing too early, buying too late etc, etc..

But today I am at my lowest. Got called first time and lost 16 BTC. Not big deal that usually, I have taken losses in that range or bit below before. It is big deal as I bought at fucking 453$ and still got called. I initiated 30 BTC move from my mt4 account to my btce accounted 3 days ago, wanted to turn that to fiat and to trade on fiat mt4 with that. Completely forgot on it and placed my orders at 450 and 440 at pretty conservative 2:1 margin but btc-e out of nowhere decided to move those coins few hours before crash and suddenly that 2:1 margin became much more risky. Got called at 322. But luckily, other 50 btc long order from 446 wasn't called, probably being saved by few bucks. And what's worse I bag hold 18 BTC long from 528 that did not got called - btce at it's finest.

So I'm currently only on like 70 BTC that are not locked in various bad investments. So my available net worth without taking losses on invested stuff is barely 30k, it was 45k week ago, lol. And it looks like this id not end of downtrend.

In April, I laughed 340.. my alts investments were still good, not in profit but in acceptable losses. And most important of them were at break even and I was extremely positive it's going to be profit one soon. And I was in fiat with 80k bucks available. Then that big investment went down heavily out of nowhere and instead of being in position to take 120-150 BTC out of it whenever I wanted, I can't take 30 of it now, lol.

It's so different now and it's first time ever I feel fear. Gonna be some heck nervy period in front of me. Got out of much worse one and came one step of dreams, hopefully I'd do it again, and if I do this time it would be dreams. But loooong way to go now, lol.-

And my finger slipped. 

 Just bought a bit. Upside potential is just so much higher than downside potential. I couldn't talk myself out of it.

Finger is on the buy button, waiting to see if $490 holds up. If not, I think $440 will be the absolute lowest we'll see.

totally getting the feeling of deja vu right now.  It's like I'm hypnotized and can't help but doubt myself, even through it is IMO a great time to start buying little buy little.  Looking at that chart just makes me think a shakeout is likely taking place.  How long it will be and now far down we go, we shall see.

Exactly. I will not sell until at least a year has past, FIFO. Keep in mind that the long term, 52-week EMA has been approaching $500 (in black below), while the price flirts with going below it, but never for very long:

I'm not too worried TBH. I'm fairly sure that the current price is temporary and will rebound to $600+ fairly soon. That's just my gut talking though.

Falling, schmalling. I bought at $440 a few months ago, still made money at todays price. I've saved up some more fiat since then, I think it's time to buy some more soon.

Many of the figures are rather conservative. BTC should be used exclusively for remittances. It's only logical. I also think it makes more sense for BTC to capture a larger portion of offshore holdings than of the gold market, and offshore holdings is a HUGE and only estimable market. Although to be fair, when I learned about BTC it did replace a significant amount of the funds I would have invested in gold.

Yup. Using full-issuance was the "conservative" approach.

These figures are also accounting for full issuance which will occur roughly in the year 2140. At current issuance, these percentages of market penetration need only be about half of what the table shows to achieve the same price.

0.5% of offshore holdings and 5% of the gold market would put us close to a $20k BTC.

Well, here's some fundamental analysis supporting that point: http://www.honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/


tldr:

This is what I'm talking about. It always feels so gloomy during these "despair" phases, but this time, there is so much more infrastructure that it doesn't even seem so gloomy. I mean, from $32 to $2, there was no institutional investment. Nobody was talking about BTC on CNBC. This despair phase is almost certainly an illusion of price diverging from fundamentals.

You do realize "bag hold phase time" has previously always lead back to the beginning of this cycle and it then repeats itself at a much higher valuation. Now, unless the adoption cycle is complete, we can assume this will happen again. I'm fairly certain that the adoption cycle is not complete.

What a convenient answer.
I was not the one claiming that fact.
The one who claims the fact should support it with references and studies.
Where are they?