Topic: Been here before. - page 3. (Read 5208 times)

Yes and we are "lucky" because we can watch the whole chart of the past. We(the new and current newbies) can learn from the mistakes of others. I learned it in a very conservative way. I was just reading old threads from the year 2011 and 2012. If you would erase the time stamp and the price numbers in these posts, you would think they are talking about the present price actions.

This is also a great thread to get a summarization of the mistakes made in the past: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/worst-bitcoin-decision-youve-ever-made-163258

Btw, I live Germany and we tread bitcoin like a currency. Current law means if you buy a foreign currency and hold it for 12 months, without daytrading or anything related to increase your profits, then you get 0% taxing on your potential profits.

Why would you want to do that? Weak hands is what separates the poor from the rich

I agree that new members and holders of Bitcoin are not used to holding threw the drops.  That is the time when holders are separated from weak hand and I myself have learned my lesson.  It sucks you can't just upload this experience into the minds of newer members.  +1 for inspiring posts/thread, with all the fud around it's truly nice to read.

Bought my first bitcoin around $17 (after the first Goxxing in June 2011) and watched as I lost over 90% of my investment on those first few over the subsequent months. I continued buying more.

You might think: "oh, well, it was so cheap, risk was minimal"... Not exactly. There was a much more material risk that bitcoin would simply die back then. Compared to today, there was virtually no infrastructure investment, merchant acceptance, or mindshare from mainstream technologists, etc. Mentioning bitcoin to virtually anyone got blank stares, utter indifference, or potentially a dismissive chuckle. We really had NOT gotten over that hump of inevitability at that point.

I'm confident that we're now over that hump. I don't know what that means for price short/medium term (markets are fickle), but my long-term analysis has not changed from when I was still buying more in 2011 after losing >90% on my first: bitcoin is a breakthrough technology with huge potential. It's also a rare *very* asymmetric investment opportunity; you either lose nearly everything (down ~100%) or make 10-100x (1000%-10000%) on your investment. Gotta due your own analysis as to the probabilities of either of those and also figure out your risk tolerance, but that's the situation.

It's funny how little changes... Nothing in the past 3+ years has come around to get me to change my investment thesis, and the boom/bust cycles have repeated several times. The discussion/emotion/sentiment/ridiculousness on both the ramps and falls are always the same. I guess humans are fairly consistent.

While this is true now, you must consider we were all newbies at one point. The difference is the newbies that freak out and panic in times like these can't make it. They don't really get what's happening with Bitcoin, and they liquidate their position at a loss. This happens through every cycle. Those newbies from 2010, 2011, and 2012 aren't here anymore. The hero and legendary members you see today sitting on considerable valuations of coins kept their heads through the tough times. It's not like it was any easier for them the first time around. If anything it was more difficult, because there was much more uncertainty.

That was an hard lesson for many newcomers in bitcoin trading, and I was one of them but now I hodl so I don't care about the volatility.

What country is this?? If these coins go up another order of magnitude, I'll be looking for relocation opportunities and your country already sounds phenomenal. 

the point is that is more harder as it get bigger

I think you are just much more calm, when you are still sitting on 100x ROI even when the price drops by 20%. I understand the fear on one hand from the newbies. That is why everyone tells you only to invest what you can afford to lose.

Indeed. We call these brave warriors, "HODLers".

...

"this time it different bitcoins is die!!1 sell sell sell!!"

In the day someone come around and say: I figured a way to calculate the private key for any address.  Which would mean Bitcoin protocol is broken, I will second any doomsday statement as Bitcoin will worth 0 by then.
Other than that if it goes to 100 or to 1000 doesn't really matter. I didn't sold when it was 1 usd, didn't sold when it was 100, 200 or 1200...

So come as doomsday prophet without any technical issue with bitcoin makes you nothing but sound like a fool.

Good thread! It is amazing how much more I enjoy reading posts by older members than those who have joined after 2013 Usually, those newer members are a lot more bearish. Of course, If you don't understand bitcoin and only watch the price, it will drive you nuts.

At some price it only take as small amount of new money invested to keep the price afloat.

Unless you expect that people are genuinely going to forget about Bitcoin and move on to something else...   In that case I would recommend you take your investment elsewhere and hold naked shorts on Bitcoin.

However I don't see the 'core' interest in Bitcoin decreasing; instead I see a huge amount of the worlds most talented people building infrastructure to support and build the possibilities of what blockchain technology can provide.  Every month that goes past the Bitcoin infrastructure is in a better position to support a larger and larger popular movement into cypto.

Over the years, I've seen the following cycles:

1.  base infrastructure is developed to support a market.
2.  popular investment movement into bitcoin.
3.  infrastructure is over strained and hacks, companies collapse, and legal issues arise.
4.  bitcoin price progressively collapses for the all-time highs.
5.  the 'core' bitcoin community tirelessly work to build better infrastructure.
6.  the cycle repeats.

I believe we are the phase 4-5 phase as listed above.  At some point the infrastructure will become ready again, and the popular movement will overshoot the price again.  However maybe this time we will be looking it overshooting to $50 000, and retracing to $10 000.  I however suspect that the next cycle is going to be shorter, as the network effects at such such sizes are extremely powerful.

So.  I don't know what will indeed happen... However there certainly are established adoption cycle pattens that are quite observable and tested.

TLDL:  Have fun and and be ready to change your short position into a long.

*sniff, sniff* what's that i smell? is it fear? yes it is. you've gone this far, so if you find yourself accepting this logic, just make sure you HODL if we get down to 300 or 250 or 100. the problem with denial and fear is that when the pain becomes unbearable, you end up selling at the bottom.

What a troll!

Do you think you are some kind of Messiah trying to save people from Bitcoin?
Go to Las Vegas and stop gamblers or hobos or something

it's going to nowhere but down! believe or not, bitcoin game over
buy more lose more

the final capitulation incoming! bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, faith will not save this! sell now to cut loose or lose everything!

Based on the price action in the last 2 weeks, it won't surprise me if we see 200-300 again.

The question will then be, is 200-300 a good buy or is it going to down further?

Fact 1: you have sold and / or are short.
Fact 2: literally every comment you post talks your book, or aims to create fear and selling in other market participants.