Topic: Being Russia and Russian now - page 2. (Read 1474 times)

How was he "absolutely correct" though? Sounds more like he was horribly wrong, for whatever reason that was. And it's not the war that's primarily responsible for shrinking populations. It's the cultural shift coupled with birth control.
I think most of the past statistical predictions turned out to be totally missed, e.g. the alarmist "The Population Bomb" (1968).



That's a massive oversimplification. Has the involvement of US in the WW2 ruined their future, or quite the contrary, put them in the position of the world leader?
Any country that is not willing/prepared to fight when necessary is doomed to fail.

And it's easy to check and make sure! Don't believe it! The fact is that between Russian propaganda and reality, there is a significant difference - FACTS, and direct and indirect indicators!
And I'm ready to show them to you, and you can easily check them!

So. Let's start with... Let it be February 2022. OFFICIALLY, the "SVO" grouping consisted of about 180 thousand people of the regular army. These are the consumables that, according to the "unique plan of the Russian command", were supposed to take Kyiv, and capture most of Ukraine in 2-3 weeks Is it still funny for you? Well, ok, let's move on.

The "second army of the world", armed with something that, according to the Russian pitiful breed of the Fuhrer of Nazi Germany, "having no analogues of weapons", entered Ukraine from three sides on February 24, 2022 ... At the beginning, they even managed to reach suburb of Kiev, and even GO TO KIEV! I myself confirm this, because. directly involved in these events. But ... after 1-6 months, the APU released MOST of:
- Kyiv region, and suburbs of Kyiv
- Kharkiv region - for the most part, and literally in 2 weeks.
- Southern regions of Ukraine

Here I will stop.
And back to the calendar. The strike terrorist group of the Russian Federation was approximately 180,000 consumables. Logistics (I hope you know what military affairs are, and you understand perfectly well what "logistics support" is) was approximately, at least, the same number of terrorists.

And suddenly, literally 5 months pass, there is, at first, a regrouping of a significant part of the Russian troops, with an attempt to save the case on the "2-3 day NVO" front ... And then - "Mobilization in Russia", which was OFFICIALLY announced on September 21 2022 Another 300.000 consumables! Well, let's turn on the BRAIN? If the “second army of the world”, having carried out a terrorist attack on Ukraine, suddenly begins to URGENTLY understaff combat units and gather citizens of the country in order to URGENTLY replenish the ranks of the RF Armed Forces, they must have had irreversible and global losses.
And suddenly - PMC Wagner appears on the arena, which is given the right to take criminals to the war as well! Total for today:
- the first wave of worthless Russian "meat" - 170,000. Killed, wounded.
- criminals - from 30,000 to 70,000 dead, wounded. But no one counts them at all - for the Kremlin they are not people, but simply biomaterial
- the first wave of mobilization - 300.000, also disappeared somewhere
- the second hidden wave - approximately 300,000 - also disappeared somewhere.
There is a constant set of consumables, throughout Russia and now. We have already reached the big cities. On the periphery, suitable individuals are running out

Now back to the classics of military affairs. There is a classic "arithmetic" of the ratio of losses, for a war of the level of the Second World War - the ratio of losses of the defenders to the attackers, and the ratio of "200" (dead) to "300" wounded.

In total, today, even the totally false propaganda of Russia, speaks of approximately 60,000 dead (M) Russian terrorists. Even according to this indicator, the wounded and disabled, for the advancing army of the 20th century (this is about the Russian backward army), suffers losses of 1: 3-1: 4 in relation to those killed: wounded. Further - consider
According to our data, and the number of corpses of soldiers of the RF Armed Forces, approximately 200,000 soldiers of the REGULAR ARMY of the Russian Federation have already died.
Those. the minimum losses are: 200,000 CORPSES + 200,000 * 3 (I take the minimum ratio) = 600,000 + approximately 50,000 Wagnerians + up to 30,000 Kadyrovites + NG + corpses that are still lying around in the fields of Ukraine ... Total - about a million! To this we must also add - Russia's losses in logistics (HYMARS - thank you!), Losses on the territory of the border regions, that is, on its territory
Do you have ARGUMENTS and proof of another?

PS: I was not in the fighting in the east of Ukraine. But I was in Irpin, 24 hours after it was liberated from Russian terrorist troops. The first process that we had was to collect the corpses of the KILLED citizens of Ukraine, and the corpses of terrorists from Russia.
The second stage was the examination of the destroyed equipment of the occupiers, and the identification of the corpses of the occupiers in Irpin and its outskirts. You know what's "fun"? Many corpses of Russian terrorists are still lying around in our refrigerator cars! We informed the Russians about this in order to organize the transfer of the bodies of their soldiers ... Russia REFUSED to accept them! And in general they said - "this is not our problem." And that's just one small town! And there are dozens and hundreds of those liberated from Russian terrorists!

Well, the easiest way to make sure: a resource that takes into account only identified and confirmed destroyed objects of the occupiers: https://minusrus.com/

According to the classical theory of warfare, the attacking side has a ratio of killed to wounded of about 1:4. And there are no "mass assaults", and stupid throwing of enemy positions by their soldiers. So according to these data - everything converges. And this is a minimalist estimate.




Carefully observe the development of the situation for the next 2-3 weeks - you will be very surprised


UPDATE
Mobilization in Russia, May 2023. Another 400,000 people. The Russians were told about the plans of the Ministry of Defense for a new call-up, given on May 9, 2023. Information appeared in the Russian media about the plans of the Ministry of Defense to recruit new fighters into the ranks of the RF Armed Forces to participate in the SVO. 

Looks like the summer offensive from the Ukrainian side has started. Russian forces are reporting that their first line of defense was breached towards North and West of Soledar, and they are on backfoot in Kherson and Kupiansk sectors. Flanks under attack in Bakhmut, but no large scale changes there. As of now, the Russian side has 300,000 soldiers under their command. Ukraine had somewhere between 500,000 to 1,000,000 and now an additional 200,000 soldiers have joined them.

In the map below, areas highlighted in blue was captured by Ukraine in the last 24 hours:

In general, strange activity, especially in the trading network. In general, basic safety rules are given in schools, I lay the child to understand the risks that, unfortunately, can be in life.
In our country, after another attack by Russia, the civilian population is often trained, materials are sent out, and the population is informed. What is very useful - in March-April 2022, mass training was conducted in cities - on the provision of primary / pre-medical care, they were taught to stop bleeding, carry out the wounded, etc. forced "actual knowledge".

Regarding the Ministry of Emergency Situations - in Ukraine there is the same structure, called the "State Service of Ukraine for Emergency Situations." I am sure that in most other countries there are similar services, or their role has been delegated to other structures.

No one will take you seriously with statements like this one. That would mean their entire army would be long gone (for every killed soldier there are around 3-4 wounded).

But as they say, during the war the truth dies first. It's really hard to get any reliable estimates of casualties on both sides, and even the leaked Pentagon docs (or at least media reports on them) are very inconsistent, but are citing somewhere around 30-40k of Russians killed in action.

The great Russian scientist Dmitry Mendeleev (he discovered the periodic table of chemical elements and improved the recipe for Russian vodka), among other things, was fond of predicting population growth. 

Mendeleev knew mathematics very well and was able to make complex statistical calculations.  He predicted that by the beginning of the 21st century, about 600 million people would live in Russia. 

His calculations were absolutely correct, but he did not take into account that in the 20th century Russia would actively participate in the war with Japan, World War I, Civil War, World War II, the Afghan war, etc. 

This is a simple truth - war ruins the future of the country. 

But for some reason this simple truth is difficult to comprehend.

Dr.Beer has a four-point manual:
1. USA strong.
2. China is deceiving everyone.
3. Russia is falling apart.
4. Repeat in a circle until you get bored.

So finish your hedgehog stew, drink your moonshine on cigarette butts, and go walk your bear. Don't forget the balalaika.

How much will you fantasize?
Well, at least one link show?
Even if 500-700 thousand left Russia, the majority returned back, because even in Turkey it is difficult to live without money, and the salary is only enough for food and a hostel.
"million more were killed and maimed" there is no such data even in open publications of foreign intelligence services.

This is a very delicate topic. And for Russia, it can be no less terrible than the approaching military defeat.
Social defeat! The population of Russia is already far from the fictitious 140 million. Now millions of citizens, of the most productive age and the most intelligent, have already left Russia. About a million more were killed and maimed in the fields of Ukraine. 40% to 60% of the population lives in poverty. Degradation, alcoholism, first place in tuberculosis, AIDS, life expectancy is decreasing every year, and mortality is growing. This is social degradation, which may no longer be reversible. And soon 90% + of the population of Russia will consist of a lumpenized population of younger / middle age + pensioners. Neither one nor the second will give the state anything other than social spending and problems!
Who wants to live, conditionally, among pensioners, alcoholics and tuberculosis patients? No one, and therefore more will leave, and many ...

Belarus is a model country for both Russia and Ukraine. Love him, or hate him. But you need to admit that Lukashenko did a lot of good things for the people of Belarus. In the two decades that followed the dissolution of the USSR, Russia lost almost 20% of its population, and Ukraine lost close to 30%. But Belarussian population remained stable (despite some emigration). Even now, mortality rate among working age population in Belarus remains much lower than that in Russia or Ukraine. Lukashenko achieved something that neither Yeltsin, nor Putin could achieve.

A friendly universe or not, this is a philosophical question ....

It can only be said for sure that every person has freedom of choice (even if he chooses submission to fate and fatalism for himself).  The worst thing is when the cult of death is cultivated at the level of state ideology.  As a result, a disastrous mental funnel arises and begins to suck in the souls of other people ....

Yesterday I was in the Republic of Belarus, including a concert dedicated to the Victory Day in World War II (May 9). 

The general feeling is that the songs that I heard at the concert were about the war, but they sounded the idea that the war is a terrible disaster and should not be allowed.  And this is what gives hope.  The power of evil (that is, the cult of death) is not unlimited.

In fact, the lecture on safety was very sweet and positive.  Paintings depicting living quarters (rooms in an apartment) were exhibited.  Employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (two beautiful girls) asked the parents of the child and the child himself about the dangers present in this room.  This question was answered by the parents and the child. 

Then the girl from the Ministry of Emergency Situations said - "There are actually a lot of dangerous places in this room!" 

She uttered this phrase with such enthusiasm that I became thoughtful ....

As far as I know, the Ministry of Emergency Situations exists only in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.  But where is the line that separates healthy concern about security from morbid paranoia?  Where is this border? 

In psychology, there is such a thing as a self-fulfilling prophecy.  If you constantly think about the most negative scenarios for the development of a life situation, then these scenarios come true.  By actively seeking to prevent evil, we can open the way for it to enter our world.

Can I clarify - what topic was the lecture on? Just household safety or... ? it’s just that my friend lives in the Republic of Belarus closer to the borders of Ukraine, so he says they started telling them how to hide from fragments, how to prepare an apartment in case of an air raid, and where it’s better to hide ... But a year ago they were going to “reach Berlin again, if only someone will think something against us"

The problem with conventional warfare is that it requires a lot of men willing and able to fight. With a prolonged conflict the number of dead and terminally wounded piles up. So even assuming they have the technology and resources to buy/produce equipment, they could simply run out of fighting-age men at some point. Drafting too many civilians could cause further disruptions to normal, daily operations (i.e. shortage of workers).

Russia seems to be managing the sanctions way better than anyone (in the West) expected, but to say they're economically strong is just too far-fetched.

I have now gone on a tourist trip to the Republic of Belarus.  

I went to the local supermarket (to buy a kettle for tea leaves) and saw an interesting picture from life.  

Two employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situation (very beautiful girls - blondes in military uniform) told the children what dangers await them in their own apartment and how they can be avoided.  It was an interesting conversation, similar to a lecture, an exam and a quest at the same time.  

I thought that focusing on security is good, but it can easily turn into paranoia and bring trouble to both your people and nearby neighboring nations.

You can not build your picture of the world on the concept of security.  We must believe that the universe is friendly to people.  It is we who, with our anxious thoughts, make the world around us dangerous and unfriendly.

I always appreciate your help
I already explained in my post what I mean! You are absolutely right - it is very wrong to evaluate on a national basis. Everything depends on the society. For example, the population of Russia has been brought up on lies, hypocrisy and propaganda. Once again - very grateful to you for the revealed inaccuracy!
About the complexes - you tell your psychiatrist - it will amuse him, well, plus profile help will obviously not hurt you

they are quite strong on the economic side, even in a state of war some time ago Russia was still able to survive even though they had to offend NATO. at least they have a natural resource in the form of gas which is the source of their exports to Europe, and that is Russia's valuable asset in Europe, they can sell it at a higher price for Europe because of offending it, I think Russia is now really a strong country militarily and economically.

You are a very self-critical Russian.
But you should not impose projections of your internal complexes on those around you and engage in the practice of false generalizations on a national basis. All people are different and it does not depend on nationality, of course, if you are not a Nazi.

You forgot to take into account one nuance - a Russian (thanks to be.open for the hint, clarification - I mean a resident of Russia) lies as soon as he opens his mouth Therefore, they prosper, the whole world envies them, they have a powerful economy, the best army, the whole world cannot live without their technologies and resources, ... This is such a habit, genetic - it was laid down by the USSR. You live disgustingly and there are no prospects - lie to everyone around you that you are the richest and most successful!
This behavior reminds me of children from poor, dysfunctional families. Those who communicate in the yard with their peers, who have normal families, good income, good relationships, seeing how they live, begin to invent fairy tales and tell that everything is fine with them too. That dad is not an alcoholic, and mom does not work 3 jobs to at least somehow feed her family. That at home instead of a shabby apartment - but a beautiful beautiful design ....


Although I agree that a small part of the population of Russia, stealing resources or working for those who plunder the country, do not live badly. But my relatives who live in Russia (Novosibirsk and Krasnodar) have been complaining for many years that prices are rising, the quality of products is falling, utilities are growing, medicines are in short supply and their prices are high, there are no prospects, earnings are falling.

Yes, in the future, Russians run the risk of becoming a nomadic people without a homeland, like medieval gypsies and Jews ...

I agree with you in the United Arab Emirates it is almost impossible to obtain full-fledged citizenship.  It also has a very uncomfortable climate. 

At the same time, moving to the countries of the former USSR, unfortunately, does not solve the problem either.  All 15 former Soviet republics of the USSR are fragments of a once united country, statehood in these territories is only being formed.  Several generations must pass before these countries reach maturity and stability. 

For example, in January 2022, there were mass riots in Kazakhstan, which fortunately did not lead to a protracted civil war.