I've merited your post, which I've done not just for this post but in general for your various post regarding COVID19. I have done so even though I disagree, which is unusual. I like that, in general it is possible to have discussions with you. With other people I have ended up putting them on ignore because of trolling or being disrespectful.
Thanks, and this is definitely the correct approach with merit - one that too few people take. The forum (and the merit system) would be better if everyone followed your example.
I've also merited posts I disagree with in the past because I appreciate the discussion and well-argued points... but it's certainly a difficult thing to do, and one that I still find to be a huge challenge. It's often easier to merit people who agree with you even if their posts are vacuous or insubstantial, and more difficult to merit people who are arguing well but from the opposing viewpoint.
Regarding the mortality increase, I don't think this is a simple 2+2 thing, and, furthermore, it also doesn't explain why there was a huge increase in mortality in April that then subsided the rest of the year.
Agree to an extent, it's not 2+2, no, societies are messy and there are far too many potentially contributing factors to explain things perfectly. But anecdotally, and from a UK perspective, the drop after April coincides (with a bit of a delay) with the implementation of what was a quite strict initial lockdown, including school closures.
Also I'd add that the way that virus infections progress exponentially is a factor - this can lead to quite pronounced spikes on a linear-scale chart... so for example the excess deaths in later parts of the year following a lockdown could be much lower because we are starting from a much lower base point.