Topic: 🦊 Betnomi.com | FPL Football Pool ⚽ Discussion Thread - page 107. (Read 47589 times)

Everything is partially luck based, but I'm speaking about the decisions I made that were choice-based and were terrible - those are the ones I hopefully won't be repeating next year.
It takes some experience to make the logical choices across 38 GW's.

Of course that nothing will help you if you make the wrong choices player-wise, but there's probably 100 points per year riding on experience alone (when to change, use wildcards etc). And 100 points make a huge difference.

My point is about making right decisions, that will get you far in FPL. But then to breach that last 10k barrier you also have to have some luck to go with it.

Perfect example KDB this week. Bringing him into the team with data available was terrible decision but it worked well for those that did it. 8/10 time it would not, and I am generous with the odds here. Those kind of decisions compound during the season.

Another bad decision is doing early transfers. This week it is doubly so since it is so long before next deadline. Does not mean it will not help you sometimes but those 0.1M saved will cost much more when it goes against you. I did it last week since I did a bit of math and decided savings on Salah/Son for Richarlison/Bowen are worth the risk. Probably got screwed a little with Bowen injury but I went into it knowing I have excellent bench to cover if needed. And currently all three of my bench players have 6 or more points so Bowen missing a game will not hurt me that bad if he is ok after that. If he is injured for longer than I burned that transfer and that is really costly.

Think of it like betting on high odds. They are high for a reason and in the long run they will not come that often. Make a sample big enough and it isn't luck anymore it is more risk management.

Isak did well for Newcastle against Manchester City in my opinion, he was the first to score the goal for Newcastle and was a constant problem for the Manchester City defenders to contain.

Consistency will give you experience but Luck will help ensure that your plans based on experience do not go sideways.

You just agreed to my point with the second paragraph of your post without knowing 

The 1st -10k is luck, and anything less is strategy. Well, talking about Newcastle United, we all know what happened the last time we all complained about the entire team being injured, and they went on to beat Chelsea and go unbeaten for a few unexpected games, right? Personally, only Gordon and Trippier are worth considering in Newcastle United's present form.

Consistency is always important, but it does not rule out luck.

somewhat agree with this
that also is a fact for Superbru pools as well

one GW is always a luck, but consistency is a key there, as well here, but FPL does require too much time to be consistent, and that is where I fail
but overall, one has to encounter too many facts into his team to stay competitive, and most users just go with recommended setup, which is also a good setup, since being out of top players when they have a haul put you strongly down

I strongly disagree with this. Yeah any given GW is luck. You can play tripple captain in perfect double GW and your guy gets injured 10 minutes into first game. Nothing you can do about that.

But during the length of whole season those variances level out and good managers find their way to the top.

Again top 10k needs some luck, but top 200k is respectable and achievable every season.

Newcastle example, they have been perfectly predictable all season. Of course they are bad with half team injured, playing every 3 days and having though schedule. Now they are out from other competitions and had time to recuperate and good fixtures are coming soon....we should be buying their players not selling and most people are still selling.

There is no need for a lot of experience because FPL is 80% luck and 20% strategy. I said the same thing last season after coming #5; I felt I had learned enough to challenge for the title this season, but now I'm stuck somewhere in the middle. Ali (FPL Gunz), who won the FPL last season and wrote a book on how to win a few weeks ago, is nothing close to Top #10k this season. You may be adept at making transfers and saving money on fees, but if Newcastle United fails to win a game in the last seven, you cannot be blamed. 

Watkins blanking in 5 GWs.

Arsenal moving from 1st to 4th.

Newcastle moving from 4th to 10th.

You have to be very lucky to survive all this.

I always feel like the price will drop by 0,5 mil if he's not ready to play. Then again, his price has barely moved throughout the season - which shows how wrong I still am with such things.
Most this year's mistakes I did for 2 reasons - thinking price moves way faster and forgetting that I can make more than 1 transfer (by using -4 points penalties).

Next year I'm gonna win this shit.

You make the transfer with intent to screw yourself when you do it this early. I mean this current GW is still running for a week and there is 15 days to next deadline. City squad is training in Dubai, why wouldn't you wait to hear the news?

My plan is Alvarez to Haaland for this week if he is back. So exact opposite of your transfer.

My Haaland story is fascinating. I was without him for 15 GW's, then took him too early in GW19 (Everton), which made me have a 14 mil player for 3 GW's without him playing 1 minute.
Now I took him off the team again and replaced him with Alvarez, so expect him to make a miraculous recovery and score a hattrick against Burnley.

Whatever I do, I just hope I'll remain near the top 5 until Salah and Son return - I need to wildcard as soon as possible.

And that is my problem with KDB. Players after returning from long injury are much more suspect to get injured again. Just as it happened with Nkunku. KDB is world class but he looked winded even in 30 minutes he played this week. I don't think he is nowhere near fitness levels to play every 90 mins every game in PL. Question is how much he can do with maybe half of the minutes available? Probably enough

Actually it was 10.3 and its 10.4. Well I guess most people have removed Salah and Son so the 0.1 increase wont really make any differences to most of us so yeah its an easy transfer for sure. On the game between Manchester City and Newcastle, KDB shows his class so its only about time that he will make it to the first squad playing full 90 minutes thus racking more points

Werner did okay, didn't he though? I watched most of the game, had money on Spurs so shame they didn't win but I thought it was going to be
 show once they equalised so early in 2nd half but like Trofo, I was really, really surprised they started him. Nice call on Richarlison, actually really hope he shows up more often. Defence like United you need to take advantage off in numbers.

Glad I didn't take Konsa off as I wanted as he returned a standard 6.


That was the whole thinking behind my KdB buy. The double game week, should be peak KdB before he gets injured again heh heh.

I know it's pointless for me at this point, but I keep thinking I really have to up my game with this FPL stuff, every season I keep thinking I can commit but I miss a few simple things here and there, so really just trying to put up some small wins to keep my flagging motivation up.

I ended up playing with one less player this round, thanks to Pau Torres, in other things, what happen again with Nkunku? Man he was my As in the sleeve, but his in cronic injury seems like.

I thought more people would use wildcard at top this week however I was wrong. I guess that I need to preserve my free transfer rights to prepare myself. Because I thought KDB's price would rise after the Newcastle match I transferred him right after the match. Also Manchester City have a double-match week on gw25.

You can't expect a player that young to have everything. He will only get better with time and his main job should always be creating for strikers. Only problem Chelsea strikers don't know how to finish a chance so now he has to score as well.

So far he has surpassed every expectation I had about him. I thought that transfer was poor for all the parties (Chelsea, City, Palmer) but in the end it was poor just for City. No shame in admitting I was wrong.

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Werner right in Spurs squad. Did not expect him this soon but injuries forced manager hand. Richarlison goal will come handy since nobody at the top of our pool has it except for me. Again with strong bench so now I don't mind if some of my players miss the game (Gordon 7, Porro 6, Walker 6) Was a tactic for this week since there is 7 days before some teams like Arsenal play their game. Higher than usual chance of injuries after deadline.

Palmer is no hype, I'd say he's probably the best bargain buy right for what he provides in relation to how much he cost, If Chelsea were to be a very goal offensively efficient team, he'd sure be top in the FPL points for MD position, he creates way too many chances that get squandered upfront, and the weakness he's got imo is just that he's not very good shooter too, in terms of power and precision especially outside the box.

Whoops, forgot to clear me squad out as I initially thought Toffees-Villains would blank (so far so true) but City sitters all scored poorly so I'm happy I got Raya in for Ederson. Palmer no brainer, glad I bought into that hype. Just a tad higher than the average on a squad I wasn't sure in, but plenty left to play for. Don't even need to look at United-Spurs game as I've got no one from either team. United fans celebrating maybe... Regret or smart move? A whole week left to find out, huh?

easy to decide while Salah is away, but will be a bit harder when he is back, still, will stick with KDB at the moment
Everton and Villa shared points in longest playing top flight derby, and while I have three defenders from these two teams, happy to have scoreless game, although wished three pointer for Everton
wasn't realistic

At least wait until the next GW is closer before buying him, who knows who will get injured and will be required to sell.

You may know already who to buy, but if you don't know who to sell then it's like playing FPL blind-folded.