Topic: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events - page 21. (Read 62127 times)
Just created a new bet relating to the iPhone 5 screen size.
so for example, suppose some other group repeated the experiment and refutes the OPERA result, but OPERA does not release any statement. Based on what you are saying, the statement would be false in this case. This isn't at all clear from the statement text. It could be read either way. You should cancel the bet in my opinion.
ICARUS collaboration recently measured neutrino speeds in their own experiment and found no excess speed. There are also astrophysical observations of neutrino speeds from many years ago which are cited in the original OPERA paper. These do not mean that an "error is discovered" in the OPERA experiment. Also the description we posted is quite clear that we require an official statement from the collaboration.
so for example, suppose some other group repeated the experiment and refutes the OPERA result, but OPERA does not release any statement. Based on what you are saying, the statement would be false in this case. This isn't at all clear from the statement text. It could be read either way. You should cancel the bet in my opinion.
ICARUS collaboration recently measured neutrino speeds in their own experiment and found no excess speed. There are also astrophysical observations of neutrino speeds from many years ago which are cited in the original OPERA paper. These do not mean that an "error is discovered" in the OPERA experiment. Also the description we posted is quite clear that we require an official statement from the collaboration.
That announcement has to come from OPERA only or could it come from someone else? [To bad I don't have funds left to bet on this then, the yes side now looks way overvalued]
Statement description says "if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration", so yes it has to come from OPERA.
so for example, suppose some other group repeated the experiment and refutes the OPERA result, but OPERA does not release any statement. Based on what you are saying, the statement would be false in this case. This isn't at all clear from the statement text. It could be read either way. You should cancel the bet in my opinion.
That announcement has to come from OPERA only or could it come from someone else? [To bad I don't have funds left to bet on this then, the yes side now looks way overvalued]
Statement description says "if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration", so yes it has to come from OPERA.
Here is what we said in the statement description:
Here is the only official statement from the OPERA collaboration:
Emphasis is mine. We haven't closed the bets because the collaboration haven't confirmed these possible errors and there is large chance that the conclusion will not be reached until the end of April. To be more clear, if no more development happens until the end of April, the statement will be ruled false. If there is a positive announcement we will close the bets and rule the statement true.
Quote
This statement will be true if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration stating that there was an error in the previous analysis or the results are refuted by more data before the end of April.
Here is the only official statement from the OPERA collaboration:
Quote
The OPERA collaboration has informed its funding agencies and host laboratories that it has identified two possible effects that could have an influence on its neutrino timing measurement. These both require further tests with a short pulsed beam. If confirmed, one would increase the size of the measured effect, the other would diminish it.
Emphasis is mine. We haven't closed the bets because the collaboration haven't confirmed these possible errors and there is large chance that the conclusion will not be reached until the end of April. To be more clear, if no more development happens until the end of April, the statement will be ruled false. If there is a positive announcement we will close the bets and rule the statement true.
That announcement has to come from OPERA only or could it come from someone else? [To bad I don't have funds left to bet on this then, the yes side now looks way overvalued]
Here is what we said in the statement description:
Here is the only official statement from the OPERA collaboration:
Emphasis is mine. We haven't closed the bets because the collaboration haven't confirmed these possible errors and there is large chance that the conclusion will not be reached until the end of April. To be more clear, if no more development happens until the end of April, the statement will be ruled false. If there is a positive announcement we will close the bets and rule the statement true.
Quote
This statement will be true if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration stating that there was an error in the previous analysis or the results are refuted by more data before the end of April.
Here is the only official statement from the OPERA collaboration:
Quote
The OPERA collaboration has informed its funding agencies and host laboratories that it has identified two possible effects that could have an influence on its neutrino timing measurement. These both require further tests with a short pulsed beam. If confirmed, one would increase the size of the measured effect, the other would diminish it.
Emphasis is mine. We haven't closed the bets because the collaboration haven't confirmed these possible errors and there is large chance that the conclusion will not be reached until the end of April. To be more clear, if no more development happens until the end of April, the statement will be ruled false. If there is a positive announcement we will close the bets and rule the statement true.
Bet #139, currently the bet with the largest amount wagered on the entire set, is just a few weeks away from a decision.
The wagers favor at nearly a 3:1 ratio that "An error will be discovered in the faster-than-light-neutrinos experiment by the end of April 2012".
Physicist Dr. Amber L. Stuver states:
The bet included the instructions:
That's almost a slam dunk then for those betting "True" but there are still three weeks left where additional wagers can be placed, causing that ratio to widen even as the latecomers wager on True as well
So even though the return isn't that great, it might seem like this would be a sure thing that the result will be True. There is just a hint of suspense yet though. There was no "official statement" about there being an error yet, as far as I saw. It is widely known that the data can "refute the results" but as-of-yet new data confirming the error hasn't been published. The instructions don't specify that the data has to be made official though so this has probably already been decided.
I just wanted to ask then if any alteration to the bet occurs when the decision is already known before the end date. No affect? I suppose that's a risk those betting early should take into account.
The wagers favor at nearly a 3:1 ratio that "An error will be discovered in the faster-than-light-neutrinos experiment by the end of April 2012".
Physicist Dr. Amber L. Stuver states:
Quote
it was found that a loose fiber optic cable and an error in their timing produced the superluminal observations.
- http://stuver.blogspot.com/2012/04/no-faster-than-light-neutrinos.htmlThe bet included the instructions:
Quote
This statement will be true if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration stating that there was an error in the previous analysis or the results are refuted by more data before the end of April.
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=139That's almost a slam dunk then for those betting "True" but there are still three weeks left where additional wagers can be placed, causing that ratio to widen even as the latecomers wager on True as well
So even though the return isn't that great, it might seem like this would be a sure thing that the result will be True. There is just a hint of suspense yet though. There was no "official statement" about there being an error yet, as far as I saw. It is widely known that the data can "refute the results" but as-of-yet new data confirming the error hasn't been published. The instructions don't specify that the data has to be made official though so this has probably already been decided.
I just wanted to ask then if any alteration to the bet occurs when the decision is already known before the end date. No affect? I suppose that's a risk those betting early should take into account.
I don't have any holding in this bet, but in my opinion it is extremely ambiguous and should be cancelled. In very many cases, "the results are refuted by more data before the end of April" is hard to interpret. The fact that the bet hasn't been closed already suggests that the site's interpretation is that there is still no additional data available yet. However, it is not clear if that is true.
Bet #139, currently the bet with the largest amount wagered on the entire site, is just a few weeks away from a decision.
The wagers favor at nearly a 3:1 ratio that "An error will be discovered in the faster-than-light-neutrinos experiment by the end of April 2012".
Physicist Dr. Amber L. Stuver states:
The bet included the instructions:
That's almost a slam dunk then for those betting "Agree" but there are still three weeks left where additional wagers can be placed, causing that ratio to widen even as the latecomers wager on Agree as well
So even though the return isn't that great, it might seem like this would be a sure thing that the result will be True. There is just a hint of suspense yet though. There was no "official statement" about there being an error yet, as far as I saw. It is widely known that the data can "refute the results" but as-of-yet new data confirming the error hasn't been published. The instructions don't specify that the data has to be made official though so this has probably already been decided.
I just wanted to ask then if any alteration to the bet occurs when the decision is already known before the end date. No affect? I suppose that's a risk those betting early should take into account.
[Update: Full disclosure - after I posted this I wagered on "Agree" (True) ]
The wagers favor at nearly a 3:1 ratio that "An error will be discovered in the faster-than-light-neutrinos experiment by the end of April 2012".
Physicist Dr. Amber L. Stuver states:
Quote
it was found that a loose fiber optic cable and an error in their timing produced the superluminal observations.
- http://stuver.blogspot.com/2012/04/no-faster-than-light-neutrinos.htmlThe bet included the instructions:
Quote
This statement will be true if there is an official statement from the OPERA collaboration stating that there was an error in the previous analysis or the results are refuted by more data before the end of April.
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=139That's almost a slam dunk then for those betting "Agree" but there are still three weeks left where additional wagers can be placed, causing that ratio to widen even as the latecomers wager on Agree as well
So even though the return isn't that great, it might seem like this would be a sure thing that the result will be True. There is just a hint of suspense yet though. There was no "official statement" about there being an error yet, as far as I saw. It is widely known that the data can "refute the results" but as-of-yet new data confirming the error hasn't been published. The instructions don't specify that the data has to be made official though so this has probably already been decided.
I just wanted to ask then if any alteration to the bet occurs when the decision is already known before the end date. No affect? I suppose that's a risk those betting early should take into account.
[Update: Full disclosure - after I posted this I wagered on "Agree" (True) ]
Is there any way to get a full transaction history on the site? I see the "Your Transactions" heading, but it only shows the last ten. How do we see the rest?
Official bitcoin daemon API is rather limited. It doesn't give you the full history but only the given number of last transactions. For your external transactions your bitcoin client, for internal transactions your bet history tabs are more complete. If you need more info I can manually generate and send it to you. I agree that transaction history is the most unsatisfactory part of the site at the moment.
Is there any way to get a full transaction history on the site? I see the "Your Transactions" heading, but it only shows the last ten. How do we see the rest?
How many confirmations until you can place a bet with deposited coins?
Currently three.
Not sure if you're looking for more features to implement... But some stats would be nice. "You win 90% (9/10) of your bets" or something like that. Perhaps even a stats page to show the best gamblers. It would also be cool if each bet had it's own comments section so people could discuss the bet. A calendar showing when your personal bets will take place would also be a sweet addition. Keep up the great work!
Unfortunately, statement reviews, statement decisions, user interaction, server maintenance and advertisement currently takes all the time we can spend on this project. But keep posting suggestions, when we go back to coding we'll start from the best ideas.
How many confirmations until you can place a bet with deposited coins?
A calendar showing when your personal bets will take place would also be a sweet addition.
Yes, going through my own bets poses the most difficulty of usage. If it's too much work for the accout page, maybe a "my bets" filter could be added to the statements screen.
Not sure if you're looking for more features to implement... But some stats would be nice. "You win 90% (9/10) of your bets" or something like that. Perhaps even a stats page to show the best gamblers. It would also be cool if each bet had it's own comments section so people could discuss the bet. A calendar showing when your personal bets will take place would also be a sweet addition. Keep up the great work!
Do you have any plan to implement instant transfers via MtGox's "green address" in the future?
We haven't considered it so far, but I'll look into that.
Do you have any plan to implement instant transfers via MtGox's "green address" in the future?
This website is awesome, I will definetely use this website.
I am glad that you liked it. Go ahead and submit things you would like to bet on (or think someone might).
This website is awesome, I will definetely use this website.
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