Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events - page 16.

rjk

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1ngldh

Quote from: btcash on June 26, 2012, 01:54:20 PM

So if I bet 1 BTC on true and one other user bets 100 BTC on false I will win 95 BTC (in case of true) Huh

That doesn't seem fair.

That's how wagers work, and he needs a cut to keep the service running. Can't do it all for free.

btcash

hero member

Activity: 968

Merit: 515

So if I bet 1 BTC on true and one other user bets 100 BTC on false I will win 95 BTC (in case of true) Huh

That doesn't seem fair.

giszmo

legendary

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WalletScrutiny.com

coinjedi I asked you in a private message without reply so far but I'm interested in a wider feedback anyway:

Would you mind me betting on you getting killed before Christmas 2012?

I have friends in Iran and for me every bet on them getting attacked feels just as sick. As you review every bet anyway, I would ask you to change your policy to not allow betting on events that involve a high probability of people getting killed.

I know that the betting volumes - or the market cap of bitcoin for that matter - are no incentive to start a war but I'm sure you would not feel comfortable if people bet only 0.1BTC on your death.

localhost

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on June 13, 2012, 09:23:32 PM

Well, this bet can get closed out.

"There will be more than 50,000 Bitcoin transactions in one day in 2012"
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

59,786. That bet wasn't even open for two months.

- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

Any reason why this bet is still open ?

Sukrim

legendary

Activity: 2618

Merit: 1007

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=423 finished, "False"
Proof:
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html

FreeMoney

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Activity: 1246

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Strength in numbers

Quote from: giszmo on June 14, 2012, 11:58:34 AM

Quote from: FreeMoney on June 13, 2012, 10:05:38 PM

Quote from: giszmo on May 30, 2012, 04:49:46 PM

Quote from: FreeMoney on May 30, 2012, 03:22:43 PM

If you knew you could get the last bet in I guess it is ok to leave yourself unbalance and take care of it later.

But say you come across it with evenly balanced bets (50%) and you think Side A is 80% to win so you load up on Side A. Now someone else comes along and thinks side A is even more than 80% likely and they bet and now there is so much on A that you prefer B at these odds. You can't unbet A but you can bet on B now.

If you want to make sure you don't end up taking a wager you don't want no matter what happens then you need to bet both sides up front.

I wanna see you on a roulette table betting equal amounts on both red and black. Is this the kind of strategy advise people get at sealswithclubs, too? If all did that, nobody would win except the site owner even if everybody guessed exactly right the likeliness of every event. ... I guess you are just trolling given you are quite a bit into this whole gambling thing.

I'm 100% serious. But I'm not saying it is always the best way.

Imaging you know that Side A is 80% to happen and there is little or no action yet and you don't know how much will end up sitting on each side and you have to make your bet(s) right now (going away on safari for a month).

Do you just bet on Side A hoping there won't be more than 80% of the money sitting on side A at the end?

I put down 80% of my bet on Side A and 20% on Side B. That way the worst case scenario for me is break even, that would be when other's bets sit 80/20. If there is more on either side I make some (theoretical) profit.

Now if you know the result 100%, no uncertainty, at all then you put the money down all on one side (same theory as before it just happens to be 100/0 this time).

ok, the safari argument is a good one. still i don't bother betting when is see the others reflecting the odds exactly as I see it as my chances of winning are just too low. when the others "have no clue" i want to profit from that.

Sure, but all it takes is one person with a clue and a lot of money to come in between the last time you check and the end of the betting period to leave you with a bet that you don't want. On top of that, even if you do check in time you have to have more money available to commit.

giszmo

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WalletScrutiny.com

Quote from: FreeMoney on June 13, 2012, 10:05:38 PM

Quote from: giszmo on May 30, 2012, 04:49:46 PM

Quote from: FreeMoney on May 30, 2012, 03:22:43 PM

If you knew you could get the last bet in I guess it is ok to leave yourself unbalance and take care of it later.

But say you come across it with evenly balanced bets (50%) and you think Side A is 80% to win so you load up on Side A. Now someone else comes along and thinks side A is even more than 80% likely and they bet and now there is so much on A that you prefer B at these odds. You can't unbet A but you can bet on B now.

If you want to make sure you don't end up taking a wager you don't want no matter what happens then you need to bet both sides up front.

I wanna see you on a roulette table betting equal amounts on both red and black. Is this the kind of strategy advise people get at sealswithclubs, too? If all did that, nobody would win except the site owner even if everybody guessed exactly right the likeliness of every event. ... I guess you are just trolling given you are quite a bit into this whole gambling thing.

I'm 100% serious. But I'm not saying it is always the best way.

Imaging you know that Side A is 80% to happen and there is little or no action yet and you don't know how much will end up sitting on each side and you have to make your bet(s) right now (going away on safari for a month).

Do you just bet on Side A hoping there won't be more than 80% of the money sitting on side A at the end?

I put down 80% of my bet on Side A and 20% on Side B. That way the worst case scenario for me is break even, that would be when other's bets sit 80/20. If there is more on either side I make some (theoretical) profit.

Now if you know the result 100%, no uncertainty, at all then you put the money down all on one side (same theory as before it just happens to be 100/0 this time).

ok, the safari argument is a good one. still i don't bother betting when is see the others reflecting the odds exactly as I see it as my chances of winning are just too low. when the others "have no clue" i want to profit from that.

FreeMoney

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1016

Strength in numbers

Quote from: giszmo on May 30, 2012, 04:49:46 PM

Quote from: FreeMoney on May 30, 2012, 03:22:43 PM

If you knew you could get the last bet in I guess it is ok to leave yourself unbalance and take care of it later.

But say you come across it with evenly balanced bets (50%) and you think Side A is 80% to win so you load up on Side A. Now someone else comes along and thinks side A is even more than 80% likely and they bet and now there is so much on A that you prefer B at these odds. You can't unbet A but you can bet on B now.

If you want to make sure you don't end up taking a wager you don't want no matter what happens then you need to bet both sides up front.

I wanna see you on a roulette table betting equal amounts on both red and black. Is this the kind of strategy advise people get at sealswithclubs, too? If all did that, nobody would win except the site owner even if everybody guessed exactly right the likeliness of every event. ... I guess you are just trolling given you are quite a bit into this whole gambling thing.

I'm 100% serious. But I'm not saying it is always the best way.

Imaging you know that Side A is 80% to happen and there is little or no action yet and you don't know how much will end up sitting on each side and you have to make your bet(s) right now (going away on safari for a month).

Do you just bet on Side A hoping there won't be more than 80% of the money sitting on side A at the end?

I put down 80% of my bet on Side A and 20% on Side B. That way the worst case scenario for me is break even, that would be when other's bets sit 80/20. If there is more on either side I make some (theoretical) profit.

Now if you know the result 100%, no uncertainty, at all then you put the money down all on one side (same theory as before it just happens to be 100/0 this time).

Stephen Gornick

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1010

Well, this bet can get closed out.

"There will be more than 50,000 Bitcoin transactions in one day in 2012"
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

59,786. That bet wasn't even open for two months.

- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

giszmo

legendary

Activity: 1862

Merit: 1114

WalletScrutiny.com

Quote from: FreeMoney on May 30, 2012, 03:22:43 PM

If you knew you could get the last bet in I guess it is ok to leave yourself unbalance and take care of it later.

But say you come across it with evenly balanced bets (50%) and you think Side A is 80% to win so you load up on Side A. Now someone else comes along and thinks side A is even more than 80% likely and they bet and now there is so much on A that you prefer B at these odds. You can't unbet A but you can bet on B now.

If you want to make sure you don't end up taking a wager you don't want no matter what happens then you need to bet both sides up front.

I wanna see you on a roulette table betting equal amounts on both red and black. Is this the kind of strategy advise people get at sealswithclubs, too? If all did that, nobody would win except the site owner even if everybody guessed exactly right the likeliness of every event. ... I guess you are just trolling given you are quite a bit into this whole gambling thing.

FreeMoney

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1016

Strength in numbers

If you knew you could get the last bet in I guess it is ok to leave yourself unbalance and take care of it later.

But say you come across it with evenly balanced bets (50%) and you think Side A is 80% to win so you load up on Side A. Now someone else comes along and thinks side A is even more than 80% likely and they bet and now there is so much on A that you prefer B at these odds. You can't unbet A but you can bet on B now.

If you want to make sure you don't end up taking a wager you don't want no matter what happens then you need to bet both sides up front.

giszmo

legendary

Activity: 1862

Merit: 1114

WalletScrutiny.com

Quote from: FreeMoney on May 30, 2012, 11:48:35 AM

Quote from: giszmo on May 29, 2012, 09:36:22 PM

ah! the site could be more fun.

Why the artificial limit of betting 0.1?
Now most bets have really low numbers which makes it hard to bet. I understand that you don't want to have micro-bets but for now I guess they would help a lot. Let me give an example:

There is 0.2 in bets pro Facebook climbing above 35$ and 1.5 against. The betters put chances at 2/(15+2)=12%.
If I say chances are higher, I might want to put my money with the statement but doing so would man I see facebooks chances at 3/(15+3)=17%. Sorry I don't feel that confident but I would chip in 0.05 for the chance of getting 0.3BTC=1.5$.

This would again attract the pessimists which would make me more confident to put in more … and in the end, we all pay more Wink

With all the bets starting at 0.1BTC this is even worse as going with the inital better would mean shifting chances by 100%. While I see no problem in smaller bets, I guess the essential part is that the submitter should bet at least 10x the limit for subsequent bets. With 0.1BTC as is that would be 1BTC for the initial submitter or as I would prefer it, 0.01 for subsequent betters.

Feature request: Print the balance in % as in my example

I think you are supposed (as in that's the good strategy) to bet on both sides in the proportion that represents your guess at the odds.

If the odds in my head are x% and the others show me y%, the winning strategy is to bet according to that and not put money on the loosing side. If 99% say YES and I see a 10% chance for NO, why should I add to YES 10 times the amount that I put to NO when YES already is at 100x NO and thus 10x over rated? That makes no sense.

FreeMoney

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1016

Strength in numbers

Quote from: giszmo on May 29, 2012, 09:36:22 PM

ah! the site could be more fun.

Why the artificial limit of betting 0.1?
Now most bets have really low numbers which makes it hard to bet. I understand that you don't want to have micro-bets but for now I guess they would help a lot. Let me give an example:

There is 0.2 in bets pro Facebook climbing above 35$ and 1.5 against. The betters put chances at 2/(15+2)=12%.
If I say chances are higher, I might want to put my money with the statement but doing so would man I see facebooks chances at 3/(15+3)=17%. Sorry I don't feel that confident but I would chip in 0.05 for the chance of getting 0.3BTC=1.5$.

This would again attract the pessimists which would make me more confident to put in more … and in the end, we all pay more Wink

With all the bets starting at 0.1BTC this is even worse as going with the inital better would mean shifting chances by 100%. While I see no problem in smaller bets, I guess the essential part is that the submitter should bet at least 10x the limit for subsequent bets. With 0.1BTC as is that would be 1BTC for the initial submitter or as I would prefer it, 0.01 for subsequent betters.

Feature request: Print the balance in % as in my example

I think you are supposed (as in that's the good strategy) to bet on both sides in the proportion that represents your guess at the odds.

giszmo

legendary

Activity: 1862

Merit: 1114

WalletScrutiny.com

ah! the site could be more fun.

Why the artificial limit of betting 0.1?
Now most bets have really low numbers which makes it hard to bet. I understand that you don't want to have micro-bets but for now I guess they would help a lot. Let me give an example:

There is 0.2 in bets pro Facebook climbing above 35$ and 1.5 against. The betters put chances at 2/(15+2)=12%.
If I say chances are higher, I might want to put my money with the statement but doing so would man I see facebooks chances at 3/(15+3)=17%. Sorry I don't feel that confident but I would chip in 0.05 for the chance of getting 0.3BTC=1.5$.

This would again attract the pessimists which would make me more confident to put in more … and in the end, we all pay more Wink

With all the bets starting at 0.1BTC this is even worse as going with the inital better would mean shifting chances by 100%. While I see no problem in smaller bets, I guess the essential part is that the submitter should bet at least 10x the limit for subsequent bets. With 0.1BTC as is that would be 1BTC for the initial submitter or as I would prefer it, 0.01 for subsequent betters.

Feature request: Print the balance in % as in my example

giszmo

legendary

Activity: 1862

Merit: 1114

WalletScrutiny.com

Quote from: coinjedi on May 29, 2012, 03:50:59 PM

Quote from: giszmo on May 28, 2012, 08:53:45 PM

Great site. My bet doesn't work as expected though. I want to create a bet with event date August 1st and betting deadline June 15th. Why doesn't it let me do that? I get some disappearing change-month-buttons on the deadline when I pick the event date so the earliest deadline I can define is July 4th. Huh? If there is any rule, why not allow me to pick any date but show an error explaining what's wrong for dates that are off limit?

We strongly discourage very long wait times between bet deadline and event date. To enforce this interface does not allow anything more than 4 weeks. If you need more for a particular reason let us know in email or put a note in the item description and we will fix it for you before approval.

Ok, of course you may put rules in place as you please but this one doesn't seam appropriate and the interface appeared to be just broken instead of telling me what's going on.

I don't want people to bet on something that they know the outcome and I don't want the chance for the event to be too low, so how should I do an earthquake bet?

I want to bet on a future event and the earthquake has to occur after the betting deadline and before the event date. So why again would you want this time span to be short? You have bets that end in 2015 and I don't want to trap my money until 2015 which is why I would never bet on these but 2 months of wait for an earthquake is nothing compared to that.

Thinking about timing, I guess what I would enforce is a long betting window. If the event date is after tomorrow I can put a deadline of tomorrow. How many betters do such bets get on average? Sure you get your submission fee but is it worth to approve a bet that nobody sees in time to bet on it?

coinjedi

full member

Activity: 184

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on May 29, 2012, 04:38:36 PM

Quote from: coinjedi on May 29, 2012, 03:50:59 PM

We strongly discourage very long wait times between bet deadline and event date.

What would be useful is the ability to transfer a bet to another BetsOfBitco.in account. (Well, useful as an alternate approach to having a market system like what Intrade offers). That way I might trade with another bettor at a discount in order to cash out early without having to wait for the bet to formally be closed and paid out. If BetsOfBitco.in needed to assess a transaction fee for that, that would seem fair too.

I am thinking of various market systems but unfortunately I am extremely short on time for coding. Hopefully in the future.

Stephen Gornick

legendary

Activity: 2506

Merit: 1010

Quote from: coinjedi on May 29, 2012, 03:50:59 PM

We strongly discourage very long wait times between bet deadline and event date.

What would be useful is the ability to transfer a bet to another BetsOfBitco.in account. (Well, useful as an alternate approach to having a market system like what Intrade offers). That way I might trade with another bettor at a discount in order to cash out early without having to wait for the bet to formally be closed and paid out. If BetsOfBitco.in needed to assess a transaction fee for that, that would seem fair too.

coinjedi

full member

Activity: 184

Merit: 100

Quote from: giszmo on May 28, 2012, 08:53:45 PM

Great site. My bet doesn't work as expected though. I want to create a bet with event date August 1st and betting deadline June 15th. Why doesn't it let me do that? I get some disappearing change-month-buttons on the deadline when I pick the event date so the earliest deadline I can define is July 4th. Huh? If there is any rule, why not allow me to pick any date but show an error explaining what's wrong for dates that are off limit?

We strongly discourage very long wait times between bet deadline and event date. To enforce this interface does not allow anything more than 4 weeks. If you need more for a particular reason let us know in email or put a note in the item description and we will fix it for you before approval.

giszmo

legendary

Activity: 1862

Merit: 1114

WalletScrutiny.com

Great site. My bet doesn't work as expected though. I want to create a bet with event date August 1st and betting deadline June 15th. Why doesn't it let me do that? I get some disappearing change-month-buttons on the deadline when I pick the event date so the earliest deadline I can define is July 4th. Huh? If there is any rule, why not allow me to pick any date but show an error explaining what's wrong for dates that are off limit?

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on May 16, 2012, 11:15:08 PM

Though I make mostly small wagers, I have many of them open currently. Instead of withdrawing winnings though, I find myself using those towards additional wagers. And because there are many new bets all the time, I am depositing more pretty regularly, so my "Balance in Bets" keeps growing:
- http://betsofbitco.in/profile

I wonder if that is typical use.

Haha

It is all over in all gambling sites I guess. Money you won is money you are "allowed" to loose without a bad conscience.

TheBitMan

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: Sukrim on May 28, 2012, 06:33:15 AM

Quote from: TheBitMan on May 27, 2012, 08:13:58 PM

Lets say I choose Obama to win and I bet 1.00 BTC how much would I get back if he wins?
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=5

If you are the last one to bet on this right now (weight 3856.60) you'd get 1.35157500 BTC (of which 1 BTC is your amount bet you're getting back). I wrote a spreadsheet for private use that polls this data for my bets, so it should be quite correct...

Of course this can change still quite a bit over time, depending on other bets on each side.

thanks

Topic: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events - page 16. (Read 62147 times)