Topic: Betting Diary - Trying out different betting systems every week - page 2. (Read 528 times)

Do you mean bet with smaller amounts over a wider spread of games in
order to create a better average rather than as the OP was doing spliting
the pot in half and betting on 1 or 2 games?

Oh yeah make sure to split your bets so you can bet a lot more times with the amount of money you are going to spend, that is definitely the best way to go to have fun yourself and possibly have more chances of winning. Since the more you do it the more possibilities of figuring out better strategies to try out in the future.

Obviously I underestimated the quality of PSG side quite badly. That 1X in fiat hurt me much more than this bet which was part of strategy testing. I'll give it a bit of thought and start with new strategy after I get money from sig campaign. Should be Friday I believe. If you guys have some ideas, which could work or be interesting with stake of only 0.006 BTC, let me know.

I don't normally watch soccer but based on this thread I looked
in on the game a few times. I think the fact that PSG were missing
two big players in Neymar and Cavani missing it was worth a bet
on a MAN-UTD win.

I have read that Mbappe has scored 22 goals this season and is
more than Cavani or Neymar.

so time to move to a new system!

I did not watch the game Manchester UTD - PSG, but it seems that was very sharp and nervous match from both sides because 11 yellow cards and 1 red card are given in this game. It is maybe easy to say now, but Man UTD clear win would not be my main pick, for reason PSG is on other side. But I admit that I would bet on both to score, or more then 2 goals on game - so I'd definitely lose.

Like I've already written, such strategies are not something that can be long-term favorable, and they end with 0.00 in bank in most cases. But one postive thing is that now new strategy can be tested.

@Trofo: shame on the last game. I actually got both predictions right in our pool... though 2 others got exact scores, so they're smarter than even my wildest guess! Also won a Fenerbahce/Roma parlay at just over 5/1, but doesn't really mean much as I didn't take the extra risk last night.

Key players missing for PSG seemed only to give the backups time to shine but no one could foresee both Lingard and Martial injured before half time. I like Mata but he wasn't the right pick for this game, he couldn't contain the attacks and Sanchez just looked so lost. The goals in Rome all came in final 3rd too, totally missed all of them as I watched all the goals at Old Trafford.

Bit of a bummer with the last two picks.

Does it matter what system you play with? In the end you have to pick
the winning side. Hopefully a system holds for something and your
picks turn to winners starting with UTD.

Week 1 - Day 4

We have come low enough that it doesen't make sense to split the bank anymore. I am betting whole bank on two CL games today.

Man UTD to win @ 2.4
Man UTD is in good form and PSG is missing several key players (Neymar, Cavani, Meunier). Man Utd simply has to win this. I see this game as open one with probable score of 3:1 for Man UTD. I am also playing this one for big fiat stake as 1x @ 1.4 but that isn't part of this topic/test. I also wanted to play both to score & over 2.5 goals but decided against. Should be great game, can't wait for it to start.

Roma - Porto under 4 goals @ 1.35
Porto is missing two key strikers and this is only first leg. I am expecting a low scoring encounter. Probably only a goal or two in this one.

Total Stake: 0.003 | Total Odds: 3.24  


@buwaytress
Now you know one of my picks for today and you can possibly guess the other   Best of luck in CL pool.

Can't wait to see your next CL picks Don't worry about losing... strategies need a lot of time to see effectiveness (or lack of). So much variance in sports, too.

Of course, bookies generally know what they're doing (they have to, I guess with teams of statisticians and analysts haha), so you can lose money quickly if you keep going for impossible victories... that said, this season I've already had several decent wins... 1 big win affords me even >10 losing streaks! Newcastle beating City was 17/1. United drawing Burnley and parlaying 2 other expected 1.8/9 wins got me 28/1. It's not a strategy that can show results quickly though, and still needs discipline!

And I was ALMOST right about the value bet of Newcastle 5/1 too, but Wolves got their last-minute equaliser!

Thank you for kind words.

Furthermore, I see the appeal of finding value bets and betting on underdogs. I will definitely try that for one week strategy. Maybe even next weak. I just have to find way to try to make it work with such small bank (self restricted for testing purposes).

No luck today. Paire had a breakout after loosing first set 7:6. I knew that it would end poorly after seeing the first set go to decider. Usually you want to see decider when betting over gems on match, but not in the case of "mentally unstable" players.

Good luck, buddy. I've seen your performance in the pools so I daresay you know how to make them picks! I've started my own system for about 3 months now, going on ambitious parlays or extreme underdog picks... mostly above 3.5x bets, usually much more.

It's definitely for fun, but I believe also in discipline if you really want results long term (I'm doing currently 1% or less of bankroll!).

Why not just back the picks you are confident in and where the odds are really good? I think 2-legged parlays at any rate should be at least above 3/1 to be "worth it". My favourite is to pick a game I feel the bookies underestimate and parlay it with a 1.2-1.5x "sure win". My problem is usually I like 3 or 4 legs and there's where I fail haha.

So I like your 3rd pick. Wolves should win this, but Newcastle might be the "smart" pick for 5/1 with new players (if they play!).


I think I followed that, couple of months or max 3 months back was it? $10 to $1000 challenge it was (x10). I think he lost $7 or 8 times before the challenge just stopped, putting everything down on 1.x odds doesn't make it for me.

Week 1 - Day 3

I don't like the offer today but since this is mostly for testing purposes I will play the ticket anyway. I couldn't find any game I feel really good today so decided to play a bit higher odds with a little smaller stake. I choose them to keep the spirit of self imposed rules as much as possible.

Wawrinka - Paire over 23,5 @ 1.85
Both players don't have a constant (prone to mental breakdowns) and I see this as a match in 3 sets. Their h2h has a lot of matches in 3 sets and hopefully we will see another one today.

Wolves to win @ 1,90
Wolves are performing great this season and Newcastle is quite poor when traveling. Should be a win for home side

Total Stake: 0.002 | Total Odds: 3.515  

You stole nothing 
I'm happy that you liked the design

Its none of our business if he would use up his signature campaign earnings since its his money after all. 

Nice analysis! I might follow or tailed these bets if this one bet succeeds.

Day 2 - Week 1 bets

For today I decided to play following:

Sampdoria to win @ 1.5
FC Thun - Y.B.Bern both to score & over 2.5
Total odds: 2.626 | Stake 0.0056125 (little over 50% but wanted to eliminate extra decimals)

Sampdoria should have easy day at the office today against Frosinone. I am expecting this to pass with handicap and Quadriella (or how it is spelled) to score at least one goal.

Both Thun and Y.B.Bern like to play offensive football and I am expecting very high scoring game here. Maybe something like Dortmund yesterday.

I also wanted to include Milan to win in today's ticket. This game has same odds like Sampdoria one and I was deciding a long time which one to take. Hopefully made a good choice. In the end I picked Sampdoria because it is played earlier and closer to the time of my other pick. I like to group the games in this way when possible.

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@ big_daddy
Sorry man I blatantly stole table from first post in your thread. Had very little time and I liked the way it looked. Hope you don't mind   If you do mind let me know and I will remove it and make something myself.

Dont you think that gambling with all your Signature Campaign money is too much? It kind of sound like addiction to me lol.
In my opinion, it would've been better to concentrate on one game to increase you chances of winning and also help in your betting experience.

So far so good. Both tips passed very easy today. It was a bet of 0.003 BTC (50% of the bank). After first day winnings the bank is now on 0.0106125 BTC. I will update the OP later today as well. I will also probably delete this first day bets from the OP after the week ends. I should have posted in the separate posts.

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Sport bets are skill based but there is many factors you still don't have influence over. Let's just talk about football (soccer), how many times have you watched a game where favorite played much better and missed a lot of chances and then opposition scores a fluke and takes all the points? There is no way to take that sort of thing into analyses. The other thing is odds. The game is rigged in a way to make you take wrong bets. Only thing we can do is bet smartly and try to take some money back from them. That requires huge self control and cool head.


Bankroll is clearly mentioned, 0.006 BTC on weekly basis. Maybe I change that if I get exceptionally good run. My end goal is test some strategies while not loosing much money and have some fun. As I said this kind of betting is not professional and I don't believe in it for a long run. In fact I am fully expecting to lose money but gain some more insight in my own abilities as tipster and hopefully add another layer of self control. I consider both of those as essential when i start playing for higher stakes (bank of at least 1 BTC and hopefully 2). There has been few years since i gambled with that much of money and I wanted another reality check before committing to it.

In the past I always managed to end years with modest profit but I had to stop when our country added 10% taxes on all winnings (on top of 5% they take out from every stake). That ate up all the profits. It is impossible to bet with large amounts if somebody is taking 15% from you. Now I have another chance with BTC betting sites.


Actually you can look at it in different way. if you are betting 50% of the bank and adjusting bank after every day (which i plan on doing) you can never run out of the money. If you are constantly loosing you just have smaller and smaller stakes. But if that happens I will stop it and bet whole bank when amount gets too small.

For those that has been following this thread please can you explain how far op has gone.  Was his betting plan successful?  I believe that some strategies work especially forex and cryptocurrencies betting as this is purely market analysis.

That sounds reasonable. Spending 20 dollars weekly is perhaps not a significant amount of money for the sake of the experiment. It's good that you don't hope to find a perfect strategy for long-term profits. And short-term you can indeed win by chance. At the same time, though, since we are talking about sports betting, not some dice or roulette, isn't it actually possible to become a professional and win most of the time? I thought sports bets were skill-based, because your knowledge of the game and its players seems to be useful to bring you closer to winning.

This is interesting. I remember Joca starting something similar and it was exciting. You do need to mention how much bankroll you're starting with and what's your end goal is. Watching this thread regardless.