Betting Experiment #2: Chasing the Draw - page 2.

michellee

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Quote from: paxmao on March 19, 2021, 09:28:46 AM

Why do people try again and again something that is perfectly proven by math and by practice that eventually produces and event that will send your balance to zero? That is, I could understand that from a 10 year old - a silly one only - but we all known that everything based on doubling the bet is just nil.

Any experiment involving martingale is doomed to fail.

That is normal because people will be curious about what they did, and if they do not see a good result, they will not stop unless they have control to see what happens in gambling. We might think that does not make sense, but that is not what they think. They will try hard with so many strategies until they can feel the winning. But they will hard to win the gambling games, especially if they do not think much about luck.

yayayo

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There are many people who have successfully tested such strategies. Often they are hit once, and then want to compensate for the loss as quickly as possible, and that's where it all goes wrong. If you lose once, you will have to accept that and not take an increased risk because then things often go wrong and tilt occurs faster than we think. I think that you should play at betting exchanges, since you can use the lay option there. Bookmakers do not offer them.

ya.ya.yo!

Pmalek

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Quote from: Kolson on June 05, 2021, 03:53:43 PM

Yes, the strategy is quite interesting, but there are drawbacks.

Don't hesitate to explain in more details.

Quote from: Alisha-k on June 06, 2021, 01:23:09 AM

This is actually an interesting experiment but the problem with gambling still remains no experiment stands the test of time even if it plays out most times the ratio isn't encouraging at all and one might end up loosing huge fortune before ever making a profit from it. This isn't a plan to discourage anyone but to dive into the process with caution

That's both a positive and negative side of gambling. At any moment in time, you can lose everything, but you can also win. A player needs to be aware of what he is doing and never play with more money than he is ready to lose. It's the oldest advice one can give but still so many fail to respect it.

gadado

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This kind of "experiments" can take some getting used to in the long run. You should not be surprised if there is no draw for a long time in a row. is in principle also a matter of luck and good bankroll management. And don't get on tilt. Maybe laying the draw would give you more chances to win.

Alisha-k

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This is actually an interesting experiment but the problem with gambling still remains no experiment stands the test of time even if it plays out most times the ratio isn't encouraging at all and one might end up loosing huge fortune before ever making a profit from it. This isn't a plan to discourage anyone but to dive into the process with caution

Kolson

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Yes, the strategy is quite interesting, but there are drawbacks. First, it is quite possible that you will have to fail for a very long time, and in this case, morale disappears, and you will want to send everything to hell. For such a strategy, you need pockets full of money, which is not a pity to lose, since the amounts can reach up to several thousand, so not everyone can afford it. There is another point. What should people who make BTC sports betting do? As we know, BTC is much more expensive than the dollar, and it will not be possible to increase each loss by one and a half or two times, since it is too expensive. You can say that such people can switch to dollars, but it is more convenient to bet with bitcoins and these people are used to it. In general, I think that we need to refine this strategy.

imutlinda

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If you have enough money, it could work for sure. But you need a good bankroll management and make sure the limits are in your favor. Draws usually are around 3 or 4 with equal teams. Try Russian games.

Pmalek

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Quote from: paxmao on March 19, 2021, 09:28:46 AM

Any experiment involving martingale is doomed to fail.

No, it's not. Both these experiments prove that it's all down to luck. Yes, you can lose your money, but you can do that with any other bet using a specific strategy or just betting randomly. Having said that, I don't think Martingale is a good strategy. It's certainly not bulletproof otherwise it would have been made illegal by the bookies.

paxmao

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Quote from: madnessteat on March 18, 2021, 05:44:08 AM

Quote from: Pmalek on March 18, 2021, 04:35:10 AM

~snip~

... Martingale strategy. I have bitter experience. ..

Why do people try again and again something that is perfectly proven by math and by practice that eventually produces and event that will send your balance to zero? That is, I could understand that from a 10 year old - a silly one only - but we all known that everything based on doubling the bet is just nil.

Any experiment involving martingale is doomed to fail.

Pmalek

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Quote from: madnessteat on March 18, 2021, 05:44:08 AM

Do you plan to further modify the strategy with these improvements and a new experiment?

My initial plan was to conduct the experiment by increasing the stake 2 times after every loss. But doing a third one just to increase the wager a bit more doesn't seem that useful. I am planning to do some other things soon, but if I can think of another strategy or someone suggests one that I find appealing, I will surely do another experiment.

madnessteat

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Quote from: Pmalek on March 18, 2021, 04:35:10 AM

~snip~

Yes, I am well aware of the consequences of high stakes when using the Martingale strategy. I have bitter experience. Do you plan to further modify the strategy with these improvements and a new experiment?

Pmalek

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Quote from: madnessteat on March 18, 2021, 12:14:46 AM

If you increase the initial bet in the second experiment, it will lead to an increase in the necessary bankroll for successful play, respectively, will significantly increase profits.

The results of Betting Experiment #2 could be improved in two ways:

1. You bet on draws on matches with odds of 3.00 and higher ONLY.
2. You increase the stake by 2x instead of 1.5x after a loss.

Both strategies require deeper pockets, but when you win, you win more. Don't rule out the possibility that you will have to make bets of a few $1000s to stay afloat though.

madnessteat

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Thank you for sharing your new results. Your experiments are noteworthy. It turns out that if you use your first strategy you need to have a much larger bankroll compared to using the new strategy. If you increase the initial bet in the second experiment, it will lead to an increase in the necessary bankroll for successful play, respectively, will significantly increase profits.

Silberman

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Quote from: Hydrogen on March 15, 2021, 05:47:46 PM

Approaching it as a purely academic topic with no real money on the line. Versus having some capital wagered changes things significantly as well. It has a big impact on the decision making process.

I like Pmalek experiments because they remind me of the kind of research that you need to do in trading, but as you say there is an enormous difference with actually trying the strategy and just think of this as a mental experiment and we see the same in trading, there are some people that are very successful paper trading the markets and they think they are ready for the real thing and as soon as they take that leap they begin to accumulate losses as they cannot trade with the same effectiveness now that money is on the line.

famososMuertos

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LE ☮︎ Halving es la purga

Quote from: OP

THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE, AND SHOULDN’T BE CONSIDERED AS SUCH!
THIS IS WRITTEN FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY!

I also stick to those words and add that I do not intend to distort the principle mentioned in the quote.

The first thing is to understand that the simple fact of not doubling the bet is no Martingale in its theoretical essence, on the other ideas to project the profit or the loss , one should at least do that if he is going to be a frequent gambler. Thanks for the thorough example.

On the other hand in experiment #1 8 consecutive losses gives me a bet size of $384 and in the second, 11 consecutive takes me to a bet size of $173 in any case, they are only numbers, but the important thing is that no It is bankroll, the real issue here is that for you to successfully apply any strategy of this type lies in that bet size you make, for my tastes you should have 100 times "bet size" in your bankroll, as in this case 1.5x100. For those who like risk and re-deposit 10x1.5= bankroll.

No bet should be the size of your bankroll.

In my particular opinion the long term based on the appropriate bet size is always better than wanting to double the bet to get everything back today.

Strongkored

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Very interesting,
This must be really precise in the calculation if the end result want to be green and also the required funds must be sufficient, at least if using limited funds then the calculation must be correct, and I am not the type of bettor who is observant in doing calculations, especially the funds that will be used when doing bet on multiple matches.

magneto

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Interesting...

I'm curious to see the results. Since bets on draws are so unpopular, this could actually mean that the odds on either team winning could become overpriced whilst the odds on draws are underpriced.

If there was to be a mispricing like this, betting over a large sample could reap a positive EV and lead to long term profits, if the hypothesis holds up. Of course, variance will be there in the short run - but you seem to have that under control with effective bankroll management.

Saint-loup

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Quote from: Pmalek on March 15, 2021, 03:53:03 PM

Quote from: Saint-loup on March 15, 2021, 10:20:35 AM

Yes but if odds are higher, the likeliness to happen is lower... It means you are more likely to experience longer losing streaks and to end the season with a big loss or to void your bankroll before the end of the season with odds above 3.0

Not necessarily when it comes to draws in football. Take a look at the following screenshot from today's results in popular football leagues:

As you can see, I marked the first two matches that have ended in a draw today when browsing from the top to the bottom on the site. Those are:

Radnik - Vojvodina from Serbia
Banfield - San Lorenzo from Argentina

The odds for draws in these two matches show odds of 3.40 for the 1st and 3.10 for the 2nd match. You can verify this yourself here > https://www.rezultati.com/

Picking 2 outcomes is way too small for an accurate sample. You should take 20 or 30 matches at least on one bookmaker to be able to conclude something about its odds on draws.

If on 30 matches at 3.0 on this bookie you get more than 10 matches drawing 1/3.0x30=10 then you could conclude the bookie is offering overvalued odds and value bets.

It means you would win at least 11x(3.0-1)=22 units while losing only 19 ones, for 30 matches.

While with correct odds you would win 10x(3.0-1)=20 units while losing 30-10=20 units for 30 matches, that is to say nothing at the end.
(Of course I don't take into account the vigorish here)

Hydrogen

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Quote from: Pmalek on March 15, 2021, 04:14:06 AM

These are the rules for the Martingale system I applied:

• If the bet losses, I multiple the stake by 1.5x for the next match.

As you will see in the team results in the 2nd post, you may experience over 10 losses in a row.

Martingale assumes the odds of each bet being a 50/50 probability split.

Where a lost bet significantly increases chances of the following bet being a winning one. That defines the strategy and motive behind raising the bet stake 1.5x after a loss.

You defined one major shortcoming of martingale above in your observation of 10 losses in a row being possible. An alternate strategy could be to reduce bet stake by 1.5x after a loss, while increasing it 1.5x after a win. Based on the concept of wins and losses coming in trends. Rather than 50/50 as martingale assumes.

Of course, it could be fair to say stake size isn't as important as overall accuracy.

Approaching it as a purely academic topic with no real money on the line. Versus having some capital wagered changes things significantly as well. It has a big impact on the decision making process.

Pmalek

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Quote from: Ziskinberg on March 15, 2021, 05:08:18 AM

I'm into different sports, particularly basketball, local and international and my experiment is more on the bankroll management, parlay, and bet on teams that loses twice in a row and and try to chase if it loses in the 3rd game until the fifth using the martingale method.

Feel free to explain your strategy in more details in a separate thread or in a new post in this one if you want. Any system that can generate profits is worth considering.

Quote from: paxmao on March 15, 2021, 05:49:52 AM

To be honest, you could add some consideration for odds that just seem right versus those that are for any reason not that correct.

What do you mean with that? Are you talking about my personal opinions on why certain odds shouldn't be as high or as low as they are?

Quote from: Saint-loup on March 15, 2021, 10:20:35 AM

Yes but if odds are higher, the likeliness to happen is lower... It means you are more likely to experience longer losing streaks and to end the season with a big loss or to void your bankroll before the end of the season with odds above 3.0

Not necessarily when it comes to draws in football. Take a look at the following screenshot from today's results in popular football leagues:

As you can see, I marked the first two matches that have ended in a draw today when browsing from the top to the bottom on the site. Those are:

Radnik - Vojvodina from Serbia
Banfield - San Lorenzo from Argentina

The odds for draws in these two matches show odds of 3.40 for the 1st and 3.10 for the 2nd match. You can verify this yourself here > https://www.rezultati.com/

Topic: Betting Experiment #2: Chasing the Draw - page 2. (Read 507 times)