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Topic: Betting on favorites. not always effective - page 4. (Read 451 times)

hero member
Activity: 2786
Merit: 705
Dimon69
February 10, 2025, 03:03:59 AM
#8


It's obvious that even bookies make mistakes in their selection of their odds like in the games between the Chiefs vs Eagles and we can say that it was the underdog that really prevail. But I believed that there are fans who bet on the underdog here, for many reasons, i.e. they hate Mahomes and the Chiefs,  Grin.

No I didn't bet on the Eagles though, although I did follow the results and I was happy that the Eagles won this time. Of course, this can be applied in any other sports. That you can look at the underdog and see if they can pull a big upset. But not underdogs though will win, and this is the very definition of gambling we really don't know the result and maybe we have the gut feeling to bet on the underdog and win.

It’s not a bookie mistake rather those odds are based on the popularity of that outcome to come through. Bookie doesn’t guarantee that their odds is the basis of what will be the outcome rather they grade it in consideration with their profit.

Most of the bookie error are those matches that was assigned odds a little bit higher than the regular odds for the match that gives room for value bet and arbitrage bet but a simple odds placement on a favorite team is never an error from bookie side because that what the stats dictates.
hero member
Activity: 2996
Merit: 808
February 10, 2025, 01:07:10 AM
#7
With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

I didn’t post on this game but I watch superbowl due to the hype. To be fair, Eagles is not weak opponent since their stats is always close to Chief so popularity aside their skills is close to each other.

Sometimes team classified as favorites is influenced by the charisma of the team and forgets the real stats of both team.

This is the reason I didn’t bet on this match since this is a close fight while the odds showing different interpretation.
hero member
Activity: 2842
Merit: 772
February 10, 2025, 01:06:42 AM
#6
With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

It's obvious that even bookies make mistakes in their selection of their odds like in the games between the Chiefs vs Eagles and we can say that it was the underdog that really prevail. But I believed that there are fans who bet on the underdog here, for many reasons, i.e. they hate Mahomes and the Chiefs,  Grin.

No I didn't bet on the Eagles though, although I did follow the results and I was happy that the Eagles won this time. Of course, this can be applied in any other sports. That you can look at the underdog and see if they can pull a big upset. But not underdogs though will win, and this is the very definition of gambling we really don't know the result and maybe we have the gut feeling to bet on the underdog and win.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 987
Give all before death
February 10, 2025, 12:48:35 AM
#5
If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?
Sometimes underdogs pulls surprises that would make you want to bet on them consistently. But the case is that these low rated  teams win big games once in a while. I remembered the last World Cup in Qatar when Argentine lost to Saudi Arabia in the group stage. Based on  analysis, most people will bet on the defending Champions because they were the favourites to win the game.

People bet on underdogs because of high odds which could also lead to bigger payout potential. But the possibilities of winning these games are very low. That's why people always prefer to get on favourites.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 2017
February 09, 2025, 11:40:31 PM
#4
If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

In this particular case I have not done it but in general I can bet on the underdog if I think there are factors that may affect, as their best player is injured, they play away from home or the opponent has a very good trend in recent games, things like that. The bad thing is that the bookmakers also take that into account. In the end it is to rely a little on a hunch hoping to be right because they will also pay you much more if you win.
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1292
Hhampuz for Campaign management
February 09, 2025, 11:18:31 PM
#3
You win some, you lose some, that's how it goes.

I'm not a big fan of NFL, but there's a common saying in sports betting: bet against the public. The public usually goes for the favorites, which often ends up costing them. So if the data shared earlier reflects the true winning rate on ATS this season, betting on favorites all the time might not lead to losses. Of course, no one bets that way since we’re selective with our picks, and sometimes even our best choices lose. It really all comes down to how good we are at choosing the right side.
hero member
Activity: 3094
Merit: 728
February 09, 2025, 11:00:40 PM
#2
Not always, because you don't win every time. This season in the NFL, check out the data here: https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/league-trends/seasontodate

According to the numbers, the favorite spread has covered 53.8% of the time. With smart bankroll management, that slight edge means a bit of profit, since at average odds of -110, you only need a 52.6% hit rate just to break even.
sr. member
Activity: 2632
Merit: 259
February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM
#1
With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?
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