I do not think this is correct. Is it not that technical analysis is a type of analysis that uses the movement of the price and volume as basis? Where does organic growth come in in technical analysis?
My idea was that technical analysis works when most other traders also use that technical analysis. I thought that the principle of technical analysis (not the *announced* but the *actual*) was that it induces correlated movements in the future actions of traders. That correlation has to come from a common entropy source of all these actors, which could be just any common used series of random numbers, but which can just as well be 'volume and price movement' of the asset in question (or any other asset for that matter). But the trick is to have correlated induction of trading acts by the different agents.
No my friend. Technical Analysis works because there are many clueless newbies out there trading.
Technical analysis is then just "doing the same as newbies, but 5 minutes earlier".
I still stand by my "technical analysis" of technical analysis: it is a belief system, in the same way as a monetary token itself is a belief system: you believe the results of technical analysis because you believe that other traders believe it too. So if TA tells you "price is going to go up", then you buy, because you believe (probably correctly) that other traders also doing THE SAME technical analysis see also "price is going to go up", and ALSO buy, which, holy miracle, makes the price actually go up as all of you buy. In the same way, as TA tells you "price is going to fall", then you quickly sell, because you believe (probably correctly) that other traders doing the SAME TA will also see the message "price is going to fall" and hence are also going to sell, which, holy miracle, will make the price fall.
So in theory, if all of you traders were to have the same pseudo-random number generator with the same seed that would indicate in a random way (but the same way because same seed) "price is going up" or "price is going down", then this WILL indeed be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Now, concerning newbies that DO NOT have this seed, they will never KNOW when there will be a concerted "buy" or "sell" motive, and so they will, half of the time, buy when TA tells you to sell, and sell, when TA tells you to buy. Because these newbies are excluded from the knowledge of TA, they will LOSE BIG, while a majority of whale traders following the same TA (or the same PRNG with the same seed) will always act in unison and reap in the noise of the newbies. The newbies are also those "stabilizing" the price somewhat before the concerted actions of the TA traders and hence giving time to the TA traders to execute their selling (to newbies) and their buying (from newbies).
THIS is why TA works: because it is the concerted correlation message between "old boys of the market" pumping money out of newbies who have not this correlation signal.